Growth is levelling out
According to Norwegian industrial managers, the increase in total output has grown weaker throughout the year and is expected to come to a halt in the fourth quarter. A decline in new orders within manufacturing of capital goods explains this development.
|3rd quarter 2014|
|Changes from previous quarter||Expected changes in next quarter|
|1A diffusion index is compiled using the estimated percentages on "ups" and "same" according to the formula: (ups + 0,5 * same). The diffusion index has a turning point at 50. An index value above 50 indicates growth in the variable, and opposite for a value below 50.|
|Total volume of production||51.5||54.2|
|Average capacity utilisation||50.6||53.6|
|New orders received from home markets||48.7||50.9|
|New orders received from export markets||50.0||51.8|
|Total stock of orders||50.1||51.2|
|Prices on products at home markets||52.6||54.8|
|Prices on products at export markets||50.0||51.0|
The Business tendency survey for the third quarter of 2014 shows a further increase in total output. Higher volumes within manufacturing of intermediate goods and consumer goods explain this rise. However, the growth in total output was weaker than in the previous quarters due to a decline in the production of capital goods . The conditions were particularly difficult within building of ships, boats and oil platforms and within repair and installation of machinery. Total employment was more or less unchanged. An increase in the number of employees within manufacturing of intermediate goods compensated for a further decline in the number of employees within manufacturing of consumer goods, and growth in the demand for skilled labour within manufacturing of capital goods has ceased.
Stable development in demand and prices
The growth in total stocks came to a halt in the third quarter of 2014. Small changes in new orders and market prices explain this fact. However, the picture was somewhat mixed. Market conditions improved for producers of consumer goods and producers of traditional export goods, but worsened for producers of capital goods.
Poor market conditions for producers of capital goods
The general outlook for the fourth quarter of 2014 is considered to be positive. The optimism was particularly strong among producers of traditional export goods and among producers of some consumer goods. Producers of capital goods had negative expectations for the fourth quarter. A decline in total stocks due to weaker demand from oil and gas activities explains this fact.
The industrial confidence indicator fell from 7 to 2 (seasonally-adjusted net figure) in the third quarter of 2014 and lay below the historical average. Weaker results for producers of capital goods somewhat explain this decline. Values above zero indicate that total output will grow, while values below zero indicate that total output will fall. International comparisons of the industrial confidence indicator are available from Eurostat (EU), The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Denmark.
A decline in capacity utilisation
Average capacity utilisation for the Norwegian manufacturing industry is estimated at 79.9 per cent at the end of the third quarter. This is somewhat lower than in the first half of 2014, and the result lies below the historical average. International comparisons of average capacity utilisation are available from Eurostat (EU).
The average number of working months covered by the current stock of orders was higher than in the corresponding quarter of 2013 and lay above the historical average, but the growth seems to be levelling out. A decline in new orders within manufacturing of ships, boats and oil platforms was the main reason for this development. The indicator for resource shortage continued to fall in the third quarter. Somewhat lower capacity utilisation and improved supply of labour explain this decline.
The survey data was collected in the period from 10 September to 24 October 2014.
Assessment of industries in Q3 2014 and the short-term outlook 1
1 An overall evaluation of the present situation and expected short-term developments.
2 Very good: ++, Good: +, Stable: ~, Poor: -, Very poor: --, Good, but with certain negative indications: +(-), A situation where the + and - factors even out: +/-, Poor, but with certain positive indications: -(+)
|Food, beverages and tobacco||+|
|Wood and wood products||+(-)|
|Paper and paper products||-|
|Fabricated metal products||+(-)|
|Computer and electrical equipment||+(-)|
|Machinery and equipment||-(+)|
|Ships, boats and oil platforms||--|
|Repair, installation of machinery||-|