Decline in industrial production flattens out
Production in Norwegian manufacturing declined by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 compared with the fourth quarter of 2015, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. From February to March 2016 the manufacturing production increased by 0.9 per cent.
|Seasonally adjusted||Calendar adjusted1||Weights2|
|Monthly change||Three-month change||Twelve-month change|
|March 2016 / February 2016||January 2016 - March 2016 / October 2015 - December 2015||March 2016 / March 2015|
|1Adjusted for working-days and for public holidays in Norway.|
|2The weights are updated annually, and are valid for the entire year.|
|Extraction, mining, manufacturing and elec||-1.3||-0.7||-4.0||100.0|
|Extraction and related services||-2.8||-2.4||-4.3||71.4|
|Mining and quarrying||18.4||-0.7||6.7||0.5|
|Food, beverage and tobacco||-0.4||0.1||-1.1||4.7|
|Refined petro., chemicals, pharmac.||-2.8||3.1||-1.8||2.4|
|Machinery and equipment||-0.5||-6.5||-20.9||3.0|
|Ships, boats and oil platforms||4.2||3.4||-17.5||1.8|
|Electricity, gas and steam||1.7||9.2||9.3||4.9|
The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the first quarter of 2016 amounted to 115.5 (2005= 100). The corresponding figure for the last quarter of 2015 was 115.9.
Three-month change: considerable drop in machinery and equipment
According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the manufacturing output saw a decrease of 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 compared with the fourth quarter of 2015. A significant production decline in machinery and equipment contributes the most to the overall decline, with a decrease of 6.5 per cent. Fabricated metal products together with repair and installation of machinery also saw a production decrease in this period.
However, as can be seen in figure 2, there are some indications that the downturn is about to level off, after a considerable decline since the autumn of 2014. This is partly due to a production increase within some industries in the first quarter of 2016 compared with the last quarter of 2015:
- Ships, boats and oil platforms
- Refined petroleum, basic chemicals and the pharmaceutical industry
- Computer and electrical equipment
Monthly change: increase in production from February to March 2016
According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the manufacturing output saw an increase of 0.9 per cent from February to March 2016. The growth comes in particular from computer and electrical equipment together with ships, boats and oil platforms. In addition, higher production within repair and installation of machinery also contributed to the total output increase in this period.
On the contrary, a production decline of 2.8 per cent in the industry group refined petroleum, basic chemicals and the pharmaceutical industry curbed the overall production increase in manufacturing.
Twelve-month change: pronounced drop in Norway, growth in the euro area in February 2016
According to calendar-adjusted figures, production in Norwegian manufacturing dropped by 6.0 per cent from February 2015 to February 2016. Ships, boats and oil platforms together with machinery and equipment contributed the most to the total output decline. Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU`s statistical office, indicate that production in manufacturing in the euro area increased by 1.8 per cent in the same period.
Three-month change: fall in total industrial production (PII)
According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the overall production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply decreased by 0.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 compared with the last quarter of 2015. Extraction of crude petroleum decreased by 3.9 per cent, while extraction of natural gas increased by 1.2 per cent in this period. For more details about oil and gas extraction for March 2016, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.
Support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction saw a production decline equivalent to 7.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2016. Producers within this industry are strongly related to the oil and gas industry, and the production decline should therefore be seen in conjunction with the declining investment activity within this industry.
Seasonally-adjusted figures also show that production within Norwegian electricity supply increased considerably, by 9.2 per cent in the same period. Production within mining and quarrying, on the other hand, decreased by 0.7 per cent.
As from October 2015, figures for Services in oil and gas extraction will be published. According to SIC2007, Services in oil and gas extraction is grouped in section B Mining and quarrying. Producers within this industry supply, among other things, services related to drilling in exploration, appraisal and production wells, together with other services related to offshore activities such as installation of floating and fixed structures both above and below the sea floor. The time series is from the year 2010. This industry has always been a part of the aggregate Extraction and related services, but now its time series is also published separately in Statbank and tables.
It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the calendar-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April is greater than normal due to the changed placing of Easter. This effect will also affect the seasonally-adjusted figures for the first and second quarters. This is accounted for when adjusting for seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all impacts.
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