Petroleum-related manufacturing pulls down manufacturing output
Norwegian manufacturing output decreased by 2.8 per cent from June to August 2016 compared to the previous three-month period, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. Petroleum-related manufacturing contributed most to the decline. From July to August, manufacturing output fell by 6.2 per cent. The drop in August follows a strong increase from June to July.
|Seasonally adjusted||Calendar adjusted1||Weights2|
|Monthly change||Three-month change||Twelve-month change|
|August 2016 / July 2016||June 2016 - August 2016 / March 2016 - May 2016||August 2016 / August 2015|
|1Adjusted for working-days and for public holidays in Norway.|
|2The weights are updated annually, and are valid for the entire year.|
|Extraction, mining, manufacturing and elec||-4.7||-2.8||-6.4||100.0|
|Extraction and related services||-4.4||-2.7||-7.0||71.4|
|Mining and quarrying||-2.6||5.3||7.0||0.5|
|Food, beverage and tobacco||0.6||0.6||2.3||4.7|
|Refined petro., chemicals, pharmac.||20.8||7.0||24.4||2.4|
|Machinery and equipment||-12.4||-11.3||-27.6||3.0|
|Ships, boats and oil platforms||-21.8||-6.5||-17.4||1.8|
|Electricity, gas and steam||-2.0||-5.2||-3.6||4.9|
The index level for Norwegian manufacturing from June to August 2016 amounted to 112.5 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous three-month period was 115.7.
Three-month change: petroleum-related manufacturing contributes most to the decline
According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the manufacturing output saw a decrease of 2.8 per cent in the period June to August 2016, compared to the previous three-month period. Petroleum-related manufacturing, with an overall drop of 7.9 per cent, was the biggest contributor to the fall in this period. Lower level of activity and layoffs characterize the current situation within the industries in this analytical grouping (see figure 6). For instance, machinery and equipment and repair and installation of machinery fell 11.3 and 10.1 per cent respectively. Computer and electrical equipment also experienced a decline this three-month period, compared to the previous one. An information box below provides more information on the aggregate petroleum-related manufacturing.
The overall decrease in the manufacturing output was partially dampened by a strong growth in the grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products, mainly due to a higher level of production in pharmaceutical products.
Monthly change: pronounced drop in manufacturing output from July to August 2016
According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the manufacturing output saw a decline of 6.2 per cent from July to August 2016. This decrease follows a strong increase in manufacturing output from June to July. The biggest contributor to the decline was building of ships, boats and oil platforms. The decline was further enhanced by a fall in machinery and equipment, as well as in computer and electrical equipment. In addition to a generally lower level of activity, more vacation was taken in August 2016 compared to the previous years, which can partially explain the significant reduction in this period. The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products pulled in the opposite direction, with a sharp increase.
Twelve-month change: minor changes in manufacturing output in Norway and the euro area
According to calendar-adjusted figures, output in Norwegian manufacturing dropped by 0.6 per cent from July 2015 to July 2016. A low level of activity in machinery and equipment and repair and installation of machinery was partly offset by increased output in basic metals and wood and wood products. Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU`s statistical office, indicate that output in manufacturing in the euro area remained unchanged in the same period.
Three-month change: decrease in total industrial production (PII)
According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the overall production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply fell 2.8 per cent in the period June to August 2016, compared to the previous three-month period. Extraction of crude petroleum increased by 1.3 per cent, while extraction of natural gas saw a strong decline of 6.2 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction for August 2016, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.
The level of activity in support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction was almost unchanged in the period June to August 2016, compared with the previous three-month period. This might indicate that the decline in this industry has started to level off. Seasonally-adjusted figures also show that production within Norwegian electricity supply fell by 5.2 per cent in the same period, while mining and quarrying rose 5.3 per cent.
It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the seasonally adjusted indices for July and August is greater than normal due to summer holidays. This is accounted for when adjusting for the seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all the impacts, especially if the distribution of vacation between July and August vary from one year to the next.
New indicators for petroleum-related supplier industries are established in StatBank. These indicators are based on the analytical groupings which were presented in the article Strong growth for petroleum-related manufacturing and support activities from 2010 to 2013 (only in Norwegian).
The three groupings that will be published monthly are:
• Petroleum-related manufacturing and support activities
• Petroleum-related manufacturing (only industries covered by section C Manufacturing)
• Manufacturing excluded petroleum-relate industries
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