The quarterly national accounts (QNA) are published about 50 days after the end of the given quarter. The accounts for the first quarter of the current year are published in May, together with revised figures for the previous year. Figures for the second quarter are published in August, together with revised figures for the first quarter. In November, the first figures for the third quarter are published together with revised figures for the first and second quarter and revised figures for the past two years. In this publication, the results for year t-2 are considered final. Finally, figures for the fourth quarter are published in February the following year, together with revised figures for the first, second and third quarter.
The methods and calculating system used to calculate the QNA are also used to compile the first three versions of the annual national accounts. The first version of the annual accounts is compiled by simply adding up the four quarters of the ordinary QNA. In the two subsequent versions (published at the beginning of June and December respectively), annual statistics and other information available at the time are also utilised. The third annual version of the national accounts then remains unchanged in one year until final figures are compiled based on detailed annual statistics and methods for compilation of annual national accounts for publishing in November one year later. For more information about the annual national accounts, see About the statistics for annual national accounts.
National level.
930 - Division for national accounts
Not relevant.
Council Regulation (EC) No 2223/96 of 25 June 1996 on the European System of National and Regional Accounts in the Community.
Published figures are reported to Eurostat, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations (UN).
The national accounts (NA) statistics are designed to provide a consistent and comprehensive survey of the overall national economy. The national accounts give both a summarised description of the economy as a whole and a detailed description of transactions between different parts of the Norwegian economy, and between Norway and the rest of the world. The national accounts also provide information on capital stocks and employment.
See also: Statistics Norway: Focus on National accounts
Final annual national accounts figures are based on all available final economic statistics and therefore take time to produce. The purpose of the quarterly national accounts is to provide updated information about short-term developments in the Norwegian economy based on an overall, consistent accounting system.
The first Norwegian national accounts based on modern principles were published by Statistics Norway in 1952, while quarterly national accounts (QNA) were produced and released on a regular basis from 1953. Later on, the Norwegian national accounts have been extended and adapted in line with new international guidelines. A main revision of the annual national accounts implementing 1968 SNA was carried out in the 1970s. As a result, the QNA were not published at fixed intervals from the 1970s to the beginning of the 1980s. A new model for a QNA system was developed at the beginning of the 1980s and has been used since 1985, with some modifications.
National accounts are used as a tool to compare the economic situation in different countries, and therefore it is important that the national accounts in various countries are based on a common template. From time to time adaptations or changes are made to the common international recommendations for national accounts. This requires corresponding changes in the construction of the Norwegian national accounts. At different time intervals, new source statistics are produced and indicate that parts of the national accounts figures need to be revised. Since one objective of the national accounts is to provide a picture of the development over time which is as correct as possible, it is not possible to introduce such changes from one year to another. With different time intervals, it will therefore be necessary to carry out major revisions of the national accounts figures, so-called main revisions, in order to introduce adaptations due to new international recommendations or introduce new levels based on new statistical sources. As part of these main revisions the time series are also revised so that the revised national accounts can give a consistent picture of the economic development over time.
In recent decades, main revisions have been published in 1995, 2002, 2006 and 2011. See About the statistics for the annual national accounts for more information. Main revisions of the national accounts are normally carried out every five years.
Since the QNA are completely harmonised with the annual national accounts, it is also necessary to revise the QNA figures once the annual national accounts figures have been revised. Consistent QNA figures are currently available back to 1978.
The Norwegian national accounts describe the Norwegian economy. The quarterly figures are mostly used for observation and analysis of the current economic cycle. The QNA figures also serve as a basis for making forecasts of the future economic development, the government’s work with the national budget and other economic planning. In addition,the QNA contribute with material for research and development. The QNA therefore have a wide group of users, from school pupils and students to public and private institutions that actively use the statistics in their analyses and investigation of economic development. Active users include the Research Department in Statistics Norway, the Ministry of Finance, Norges Bank, international organisations such as the IMF, the OECD, the World Bank, the UN and Eurostat, resident and non-resident financial sector analysts, and the media.
The coverage of the national accounts is defined by international guidelines in the System of National Accounts (1993 SNA), published by the UN, the OECD, the IMF, the World Bank, and the Commission of the European Communities in 1993, and the European System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA95), published by Eurostat/the EC Commission in 1996.
The total national economy, and the distinction between the national economy and foreign countries, is defined in terms of resident units. A unit is defined as a resident unit of the country when it has a centre of economic interest in the economic territory of the country - i.e. when it is involved in economic activities on this territory for an extended period of time (one year or more).
Two basic types of information are recorded in the national accounts: flows and stocks. Flows refer to actions and effects of events that take place within a given period of time, for example the output of an industry in one year. Stocks refer to positions at a certain point of time, for example the value of capital stock or the number of employed persons.
The national accounts comprise two basic statistical units: institutional units and local kind-of-activity units (establishments). Institutional units are economic entities that are capable of owning goods and assets, of incurring liabilities and of engaging in economic activities and transactions with other units in their own right. An institutional unit contains one or more local kind-of-activity units (local KAUs). The local KAUs are classified by type of activity. An activity is characterised by an input of products, a production process and an output of products. All local KAUs engaged in the same or similar kind-of-activity constitute an industry.
The national accounts consist of two main sets of tables; supply and use tables (SUT), also described as the real accounts, and institutional sector accounts. The real accounts are based on local kind-of-activity units, while the institutional sector accounts are based on institutional units. This description of the national accounts covers the part of the national accounts that is based on the annual SUT (the real accounts). For a description of the institutional sector accounts, see http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/09/01/nri_en/.
The SUT at current and constant prices gives a structured overview of the supply and use of products (goods and services) in the economy. Information on fixed assets is also included, as well as wages, hours worked, full-time equivalent persons and employed persons by industry. The coverage of the quarterly national accounts (QNA) is the same as the annual SUT: As is the case for the annual national accounts, the QNA contain national aggregates and consist of supply and use tables at current and constant prices. In addition, the QNA system also produces tables with seasonal adjusted figures for industries' value added, household consumption for aggregated consumption groups and for central macroeconomic measures.
The accounting structure of the QNA is, however, more aggregated than in the annual SUT. While the SUT in the annual accounts consist of about 190 industry groups and 1 200 product groups, the SUT in the quarterly national accounts consist of about 60 industry groups and 80 product groups.
A quarterly version of the annual institutional sector accounts based on institutional units is also compiled. At the moment it only covers household units, see About the statistics for the quarterly institutional sector accounts.
The compilation of the QNA implies the use of final annual national accounts data (see section 3.6) and comprehensive input data sets. These data series are mainly based on short-term statistics from Statistics Norway. In addition, some short-term information from other sources is used. The most central sources are:
Some parts of the economy are not covered by short-time statistics or other types of information, and are estimated in the model (see section 3.6). For instance, there is a lack of information on the development of intermediate consumption in most industries. Furthermore, information is missing on gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment in all service activities except service activities produced by governments. Finally, the statistical information on household consumption of various services is not up to date.
Not relevant.
The majority of the short-term statistics produced by Statistics Norway are transferred to the QNA system by use of a direct link to the relevant databases. The information in the data sources about growth is used more or less directly in the QNA system. Some other input data series in the QNA system, however, are based more or less on calculations and estimations based on various types of information from Statistics Norway and other bodies.
The national accounts data for a specific quarter or a specific year are revised in accordance with an ordinary publication and revision cycle. The quarterly figures within a specific year t have the status final 23 months after the end of the year. In addition, periodical main revisions give revised figures. See also items 1.3 and 2.1.
In the process of calculating QNA figures for a specific quarter, the short-term statistics source data are critically evaluated and compared with alternative sources (for some parts of the economy). In some cases, the information in the source statistics must be adjusted in order to satisfy the requirements of the quarterly national accounts. In the process to estimate QNA data (see item 3.6), estimated QNA figures are critically evaluated and controlled in many steps.
Figure 3.6.1 gives an overview of the Norwegian QNA estimation process. The figure shows that the QNA system is based on two main pillars: a) The SUT for the (final) annual national accounts and b) short-term statistics.
Figure 3.6.1. The computing system in the Norwegian QNA
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The main principle in the QNA system is that the national accounts figures for the current quarter are computed based on the development of short-term indicators and the current-price figures from the base year. The base year (t-2) is the latest calculated final version of the annual national accounts. The method is the same for most common variables: The value in the base year is given the same growth rate (percentage change) as in the appropriate indicator, or a grouping of different relevant indicators.
The most typical and simple equation on a quarterly basis is:
 |
Where footnote
T | indicates the base year |
t | indicates the current accounting year |
K | indicates the current accounting quarter |
Variables:
Xt,k | Calculated value in quarter k for year t |
XT | Total value in the base year |
It,k | The indicator value in quarter k |
kt,k | Variable for adjustment, when no adjustment kt,k =1 |
(It,k/∑kIT,k) expresses the development in the indicator from the base year to the specific quarter. The level is about 1/4, because the indicator value in the quarter is related to the sum of the indicator values in the base year. The value in the base year for the variable XT is given the same percentage change as the indicator (or adjusted with the adjustment factor kt,k) and this gives the calculated quarter value of the variable Xt,k. If it is decided that there should be no adjustment after the evaluation of the results, the value of the adjustment variable will be 1.
A simple projection method, based on the development in previous periods, is used if an indicator does not cover the whole period from the base year to the current quarter.
The indicator compilations are made in the indicator process (box 2 in figure 3.6.1).
However, the indicator process alone does not give a complete harmonised account at current and constant prices. To calculate values for variables that are not calculated in the indicator compilations, and to harmonise the accounts, we use an input-output model (box 3 in figure 3.6.1).
The input-output model includes a commodity-flow balance, a price input-output system and a set of equations for summaries and definitions. It now comprises over 12 000 equations in total. The input-output coefficients are calculated from the SUT in the base year. The variables calculated in the indicator compilations are transferred to the input-output model as exogenous variables. To calculate balanced accounts at current prices we need price indices on all supply and use categories. These are computed in the model by weighting together product price indices with the input-output coefficients as weights. Each product gets three different price indices, one for resident output delivered to the home market (to resident users), a second for import and a third for export.
The price index for an industry’s total output is then calculated as a weighted average of the price indices for the home and export market using the input-output coefficients as weights. The price indices of intermediate consumption, final consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation are calculated in a similar way, using the import and home market price indices and the input-output coefficients.
The model also calculates variables which are not covered by short-term statistics or other information and therefore not calculated in the indicator process. These calculations are based on simple assumptions. For instance, intermediate consumption for most industries at constant prices (the total except FISIM) is assumed to be a fixed proportion of total output for the relevant industry. The distribution of intermediate consumption (except FISIM) on different products at constant prices is also assumed to be the same as in the base year. The industries’ use of FISIM as intermediate consumption is supposed to equal the growth in total output of FISIM services. Output in the retail and wholesale trade activities in constant prices is assumed to follow the development of the use of the various goods in constant prices, such as household consumption, intermediate consumption and gross fixed capital formation of the various specific goods (that means supposed fixed margins).
Changes in stock of separate products are (for most products) calculated as the difference between the total supply and use of the product. As in the annual NA, the changes in stock may be adjusted if that seems reasonable after an evaluation of the figures.
The results are stored in the time series database (box 4 in figure 3.6.1), which, among other things, provides the basis for different sets of tables (box 6). At the moment there are two different sets of tables (with seasonal unadjusted figures), sets for internal checks and analyses of data and more aggregated sets of data for publishing.
Process 1-4 describes how the quarterly seasonally unadjusted figures are estimated. The unadjusted figures are seasonally adjusted (box 5) using a seasonal adjustment program. The published seasonally adjusted figures are adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal effects, but not for "accidental circumstances" (see “More about seasonal adjustment” below).
The method adopted to compile the QNA is highly mechanical. This applies to the update of variables in the national accounts based on short-term statistics as well as the balancing of commodities, the computation of indirect taxes and factor incomes and the overall balancing of the GDP and main aggregates. Technically, the data systems are programmed in FAME and TROLL (the latter is used for the input-output model only).
Checks and/or the evaluation of data are performed in several steps. The input data are evaluated (from box 1b), followed by an evaluation of quarterly national accounts output data. Steps 2-6 are carried out several times before the data are published and the output data are evaluated every time. The QNA system offers a unique opportunity to compare different types of input data: The system for instance shows how supply conforms to use (in total or for certain relevant groups of products). The evaluation of the different sources is done in close contact with the relevant statistics divisions in Statistics Norway.
The quarterly national accounts figures may be influenced by different weather conditions, holidays, etc. The effects of conditions that are repeated at the same time every year are referred to as seasonal effects, while effects that are directly connected to changes in the calendar from one year to another are referred to as calendar effects. The increase in household consumption of goods in December is an example of a seasonal effect, while the number of working days in each quarter is a calendar effect. Incidental happenings such as a strike or a production stoppage may also affect the figures. The seasonal adjustment program is supposed to recognise and adjust the figures to seasonal effects and calendar effects, but not incidental effects. In cases where Statistics Norway has information on strikes or other incidental happenings that are assumed to have effect on the figures, these incidents are mentioned when the figures are published.
The seasonal unadjusted quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted using the
program "X-12-ARIMA", developed by the US Bureau of the Census. This program is one of the most common methods for seasonal adjustment of figures internationally.
From the 3rd quarter of 2011 QNA was published according to the new standard for industrial classification. We used this opportunity to change some routines regarding seasonal adjustment to ease the dissemination of constant price figures. In addition, there has been a significant reduction in the number of seasonally adjusted time series.
The new method implies that we adjust the aggregates directly. The direct method is the first step and it is used on all the aggregates. Thereafter we apply the indirect method on the individual series and then sum the series to its respective aggregate, but the period of revision is limited from the base year to the present (where the figures are additive). For the years preceding the base year we keep the figures calculated from the direct seasonal adjustment approach. This means that the seasonal adjusted time series for QNA are kept constant from 1978 to the base year.
When a new base year is established, and the time series are updated, we use identical seasonal adjustment factors as before. This means that changes in seasonally adjusted data are only due to changes in the unadjusted data.
Note that we use information from the entire period of the time series to estimate seasonal adjustment factors, but we use this information only from the base year to the present.
For more on seasonal adjustments of QNA please see About seasonal adjustments.
The QNA system is updated with a new base year every year (i.e. the latest final version of the annual accounts). The database for the annual accounts (box 1a), as well as the base data and coefficients in the harmonisation model (box 3) are updated. At the same time, it is possible to implement new indicators, carry out changes in the input series and in the model, etc. Such changes are not carried out in an ordinary quarterly process.
The recalculation of the quarterly accounts is carried out by distributing the annual figures between the quarters using the original quarterly figures as keys. The recalculated quarterly accounts will then add up to the annual accounts at constant and current prices.
The harmonisation is based on the principle that the differences between the quarterly changes to the original and harmonised series shall be as small as possible. The quarterly accounts should add up to the figures in the annual accounts.
When the base year is updated the QNA for that year is aligned automatically.
All figures are published at current prices and (for most sizes) constant prices (i.e. the accounts also specify volume and price changes). Constant-price estimates in the national accounts are calculated based on the previous year's prices; i.e. the base year is changed every year. Subsequently, data on volume changes are constructed in terms of growth rates and corresponding implicit data on changes in prices. In parallel, time series of volume figures are constructed by using prices from a reference year. The constant-price estimates are consistent with the data on changes in volume in the series of growth rates. Since the chaining is carried out separately for all items, the table components do, however, not necessarily add up to the totals of the same table.
§ 2-6 of the Statistics Act states that data under no circumstances shall be published in such a way that they may be traced back to the supplier. This means that the general rule is not to publish data if there are fewer than three enterprises in an industry. In practice, this means that for some detailed industry categories, figures must be aggregated up to a more aggregated industry group before they can be published.
In the QNA, as in the annual NA, all aggregates are defined according to international standards. See Concepts and definitions in national accounts for definitions and explanations of concepts and variables used in the national accounts.
The classifications used in the QNA are the same as in the annual NA. However, the level of detail used in the QNA is more aggregated. This means that the classifications used in the QNA, like the classifications used in the annual NA, follows the recommendations in the international standards 1993 SNA and ESA95:
Measurement and processing errors may occur when the QNA data source is produced as well as when the QNA figures based on this source are produced.
The various sources of error and uncertainty in the QNA can be divided into four main groups:
A. Missing or incomplete data sources for parts of the economy: One important source of uncertainty is missing or incomplete data series for the development of parts of the economy. For some parts of the economy the data situation for developing up-to-date figures in the quarterly national accounts is weak, for instance:
B. Relevance in relation to the use of a data source as an indicator in the QNA system. Here, relevance means that a statistical source may not be perfectly suitable as an indicator for the variable it is used for, but it is used because more appropriate indicators are lacking. The source data may for instance not cover the economic field that the QNA variable is supposed to cover; there may be differences between the source data and the QNA with regard to variable definitions, etc).
C. Uncertainty or errors in the QNA data sources: This includes sampling errors, errors connected to the determination of the population, processing errors, measurement errors, non-response errors and/or model errors in each of the statistical sources used in the QNA.
D. Measurement errors, processing errors and/or model errors in the process of compiling the QNA data.
When it comes to expressing the overall uncertainty in the QNA with an explicit statistical variable such as variance, standard deviation or confidence interval, this is not possible. For some of the statistical sources, statistical uncertainty for some of the errors listed above (point C) may be calculated in theory. In practice, these calculations have not yet been done for most of the statistical sources.
Since the quarterly national accounts and the annual national accounts are an integrated system with balancing methods and consistency checks, there is reason to believe that annual and quarterly national accounts may reduce some of the inaccuracies in the statistical sources. On the other hand, the national accounts require the production of statistics in areas where the sources are unsatisfactory (point A and B), and the inaccuracy in such areas may therefore be significant. In addition, some measurement errors, processing errors and/or model errors may occur in the compilation process of QNA figures.
As stated earlier, the annual national accounts are one of the main pillars in the QNA. Thus, errors and uncertainty in the annual accounts figures will also affect QNA figures. The EU Commission and Eurostat have completed a quality evaluation of the annual national accounts in all EEA countries. The conclusion was that the (annual) Norwegian national accounts are of a high quality, soundly based on reliable and exhaustive sources, integrated in a system with a detailed product breakdown (Report on the sources and methods used in compiling GNP in Norway, Eurostat/B1/CPNB/237/EN, 9 December 1997, Luxembourg).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) carried out an evaluation of central parts of Norwegian macroeconomic statistics in autumn 2002, including the Norwegian quarterly national accounts. In the report, (IMF (2003)), the Norwegian macroeconomic statistics, including national accounts got positive reviews: "In summary, Norway's macroeconomic statistics are of generally high quality." About the national accounts, the IMF also expressed that: "The source data for both the annual and the quarterly national accounts are generally sound and timely, and sufficiently portray reality."
In 2003, Statistics Norway carried out a project to evaluate the quality of the Norwegian QNA. The task of the project was to describe the different processes in the system, evaluate the different processes and set up a plan for further work to improve quality. A project report was released in April 2004 (Evensen, 2004a) . The report lists a variety of measures to increase quality, such as changes in the organisation of the QNA process, technical changes in the data system, an increase and improvement of the documentation related to the QNA system etc.
Another way of measuring the general quality of the quarterly national accounts is to compare the preliminary annual figures from the first version of the annual accounts (by adding up the quarters in the QNA) with the final version. This was done in 2004 (Evensen, 2004b). The article looks at the growth rates of the main aggregates: GDP, GDP for mainland Norway, household consumption, government consumption, gross fixed capital formation, exports, imports and compensation of employees. For most variables, the study covers the years 1972-2002, while for some variables it covers the years 1993-2002. The study concludes that the preliminary figures generally had underestimated the growth rate in relation to the final figures, but that the overall picture did not differ too much.
Not directly applicable to the national accounts data. However, if non-response errors affect the statistical sources used in the quarterly national accounts, these types of errors may indirectly affect the QNA figures (see 5.1). It is, however, not possible to calculate such effects in the QNA data.
Not directly applicable to the national accounts data. However, if sampling errors affect the short-term statistics that are used as sources in the quarterly national accounts, these types of errors may also indirectly affect the QNA figures. It is, however, not possible to calculate such effects in the QNA data.
See section 5.1.
Consistent quarterly time series exist back to 1978. Consistent annual time series exist back to 1970. Annual NA figures for the years 1865-1970 are based on the previous standards used for the national accounts and are not compatible with the up to date figures (see also item 2.1).
The Norwegian Balance of Payments (BOP) is an integrated system in the Norwegian system of national accounts, and the BOP figures are fully consistent with other QNA figures. Furthermore, quarterly national accounts (QNA) figures are fully consistent and compatible with the annual NA (as described in item 1.3, 3.1 and 4.1), and therefore also consistent with the institutional sector accounts. The regional national accounts, and various satellite accounts (environment, tourism, health) will be published according to the new standard for industrial classification (SN2007) during 2012 and will thus be fully consistent with the above mentioned national accounts statistics. Please see
http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/09/03/
http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/09/01/knr_en/
http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/09/01/nri_en/
http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/09/01/fnr_en/
http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/09/01/nrmiljo_en/
http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/09/01/turismesat_en/
http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/09/01/helsesat_en/.
The quarterly national accounts are published on Statistics Norway's website: http://www.ssb.no/knr_en, in tables in StatBank Norway and in the publication Economic Survey. In addition, it is possible to order time series and tables on paper or electronically.
Eurostat website, national accounts:
http://forum.europa.eu.int/irc/dsis/nfaccount/info/data/esa95/esa95-new.htm
Evensen, T. N. (2004a): Kvalitetsarbeid knyttet til kvartalsvis nasjonalregnskap (KNR), Notater 2004/42, Statistisk sentralbyrå. In Norwegian only
Evensen, T. N. (2004b): Er foreløpige nasjonalregnskapstall pålitelige?, Økonomiske analyser 6/2004, Statistisk sentralbyrå. In Norwegian only
OECD, web site, national accounts:
http://www.oecd.org/department/0,2688,en_2649_34245_1_1_1_1_1,00.html
Simpson, Liv Hobbelstad (2005): National Accounts Supply and Use Tables (SUT) in Current Prices. SNA-NT "SUT/STARTER". Document 2005/5
Simpson, Liv Hobbelstad (2005): National Accounts Supply and Use Tables (SUT) in Constant Prices. SNA-NT "SUT/CONSTANT". Document 2005/4
Skoglund, Tor (2001): Employment in the Norwegian National Accounts, Documents 2001/9, Statistics Norway
Statistisk sentralbyrå (2003): National Accounts 1995-2002. Production, Uses and employment. NOS D258.
The United Nation, web site, national accounts:
http://unstats.us.org/unsd/nationalaccount/
Not applicable.
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