Lowest population growth since 2006
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Population and population changes2016, estimated figures

The annual estimated figures are published every year in December and show the estimated population for the coming year-end. Because the final figures as at 1 January are issued in February, the estimated figures are only applicable during the period from December to February. Statistics Norway also publishes quarterly figures of changes.



Lowest population growth since 2006

The population growth in 2016 is estimated to be 43 400 persons, or 0.83 per cent. This is the second year running with a decrease in the population growth. The figures are the lowest since 2006. There are expected to be 5 257 000 residents in Norway on 31 December 2016.

Estimated population growth and population. The whole country and the ten largest municipalities.
The ten largest municipalities2016
Population 1st January. Final figuresEstimated populationEstimated population 31st DecemberEstimated population growth. Per cent
The whole country5 213 98543 3685 257 3530.8
Oslo658 3908 263666 6531.3
Bergen277 391970278 3610.3
Trondheim187 3533 096190 4491.7
Stavanger132 644324132 9680.2
Bærum122 3481 632123 9801.3
Kristiansand88 44776889 2150.9
Fredrikstad78 9671 15280 1191.5
Sandnes74 82067475 4940.9
Tromsø73 4801 00974 4891.4
Drammen67 89551668 4110.8

Net migration makes up 60 per cent of the growth, while 40 per cent is excess of births. The decline in the population growth is caused by lower net migration compared to the peak years 2007-2014, when about 70 per cent of the population growth was net migration. This is due to the increasing emigration of labour workers.

Estimated net migration from abroad is expected to be about 25 800, which is 4 000 lower than in 2015 and about 21 000 lower than in the peak year 2012, when net migration was 47 300.

The estimated excess of births of 17 600 is expected to be somewhat lower than last year, but will still constitute a larger part of the population growth than last year, because the net migration is lower today.

Estimated figures for the counties show that Akershus, Sør-Trøndelag and Oslo have the highest growth. The population growth in Akershus is 1.6 per cent, while Sør-Trøndelag and Oslo grew with 1.3 per cent.

Asylum seekers without a residence permit are not registered as residents and therefore not included in these estimations.

The estimations show expected population at the end of 2016, and some new boundary changes from 1 January 2017 are not included.

About the estimationsOpen and readClose

The population is estimated for the country as a whole and at county and municipality level. It is based on information from the population register, using data on births, deaths and migration up to 1 December 2016. The population growth in December is estimated using approximately the same relative growth as in December 2015. If the level of births, deaths and migration changes markedly in December this year compared to last year, the population will vary correspondingly.

For some municipalities, estimated figures as of 31 December 2016 may thus seem to break with the trend so far this year, but this is due to the estimation method used. This is especially visible in small municipalities, where the figures must be regarded as a preliminary estimate.


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