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6261_om
statistikk
2013-12-19T10:00:00.000Z
Population
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Estimated population at the term of the year1 January 2014

Content

About the statistics

Definitions

Name and topic

Name: Estimated population at the term of the year
Topic: Population

Responsible division

Division for Population Statistics

Definitions of the main concepts and variables

Population: All figures relate to the domiciled (de jure) population. Who is regarded as a resident of Norway and where in Norway a person shall be counted as a resident, is stipulated in the Population Registration Act of 16 January 1970. The regulations to the act were amended and came into force on 1 October 1998. See section 4.1.,Resident in About the statistics

Population growth: The population growth for a year is regarded as the estimated population on 1 January year n+1 minus the population year n.

Standard classifications

Classification of municipality

Administrative information

Regional level

National, county and municipal

Frequency and timeliness

Annual

International reporting

Not relevant

Microdata

The statistics on the estimated population contain aggregated data and are only stored on a short-term basis. The population figures and the final changes in population for the year are stored long-term and published in a variety of contexts at Municipalities.

Background

Background and purpose

As an addition to the annual and quarterly statistics on population trends, Statistics Norway also provides statistics that estimate the future population, at the turn of the year. The estimate is based on data on births, deaths and net immigration up to the end of November of the relevant year. The development in December is projected based on the development of births, deaths, net immigration in December in the preceding few years, together with expectations in line with the development throughout the current year.

Statistics on the estimated population at the turn of the year have been in existence since 1970, but only for Norway as a whole. The first estimates at county and municipal level were created on 1 January 2000. The municipal figures are less certain than the county and national figures, and the estimated population in the smallest municipalities will be more uncertain than the estimates for larger municipalities.

Users and applications

The statistics have a wide range of users and applications, such as public administration, the mass media and private individuals.

Coherence with other statistics

As the statistics are approximate statistics based on estimates, the population figure in each municipality will vary in these statistics from the population figure in other population statistics published in mid February of the following year.

Population

Quarterly population changes

Legal authority

Statistics Act, §§ 2-1, 2-2, 3-2

EEA reference

Not relevant

Production

Population

This comprises persons that are assumed to be registered as resident in Norway at the end of the year. Refer to section 4.1 Definition of the main concepts and variables for a definition of who are regarded as resident in Norway.

Estimated population are as of release 19 December 2013 merged with population .

Data sources and sampling

The statistics are based on data from the national register. Since 1946, all local authorities have held a local national register of all residents in the individual municipalities in accordance with legislation and directives related to national registration. The registration method in the national register changed in 2005, and there are now 97 major register owners, which cover the registration for several municipalities in each county. The national registration offices receive details of births, deaths, marriages, divorces, immigration etc. from various sources for the municipalities they cover.

The National Population Register (DSP) was built up from 1964 to 1966 on the basis of the 1960 census, at the same time as the 11-digit national identity number was introduced as identification. The register consisted of those who took park in the census, and subsequently everyone that has been resident in Norway from 1 October 1964. In 1995, the Central Population Register (DSF) at the Directorate of Taxes took over as the official register. The Office of the National Registrar, which administrates the DSF (and previous DSP), was transferred in 1991 from Statistics Norway to the Directorate of Taxes.

Since 1968, the register (DSP, and subsequently DSF) has provided the basis for compiling annual statistics (quarterly statistics since 1974) on the population and the composition of the population. Prior to 1968, population estimates were based on figures in the 10-yearly censuses, as well as figures on births and deaths and available immigration figures for the intervening years.

The updating of the Central Population Register is partly carried out by the local population registries, which are connected to the DSF via terminals, and partly by the Directorate of Taxes centrally. The basis of the statistics on changes in the population is electronic copies to Statistics Norway of all such reports of events that update the register. The reports are also used to update a separate Statistics Norway population database kept for statistical purposes. This database forms the basis of the population statistics.

Collection of data, editing and estimations

Since January 1998, reports (electronic copies) that were previously transferred on a monthly basis have been transferred from the Central Population Register to Statistics Norway daily. Prior to May 1995, Statistics Norway received the reports on a magnetic tape each month.

In addition to the checks that are performed in the Central Population Register, Statistics Norway also carries out checks for statistical purposes. More details of the checks that are now undertaken are given in "Dokumentasjon av BESYS-befolkningsstatistikksystemet. Befolkningsendringer i 1998 og befolkningsbasen (BEBAS) 1. januar 2000", Notater 2000/24 (in Norwegian only)

Estimates are based on data concerning births, deaths and net immigration up to the end of November of the relevant year. The development in December is projected based on the development of births, deaths and net immigration in December in the preceding few years, together with expectations in line with the development throughout the current year.

Confidentiality

Not relevant

Comparability over time and space

Due to municipal mergers and divisions, and the redrawing of borders, it is not always possible to compare municipal and county figures over time. "See Rapport 99/13 "Historisk oversikt over kommune- og fylkesinndelingen 1838-1996 (Historical Overview of Municipal and County Divisions 1838-1996) by Dag Juvkam, Statistics Norway

Accuracy and reliability

Sources of error and uncertainty

Some errors made during the collecting and processing of the data are unavoidable and include coding, revision and data processing errors etc. Extensive efforts have been made to minimise these errors, and we regard these types of errors to be relatively insignificant.

Non-response errors will exist to the degree there are persons living in Norway that are not registered as resident in the relevant regulations, as stipulated in the Population Registration Act of 16 January 1970. See section 4.1 Definition of the main concepts and variables.

None because all the material rather than samples is used.

As the statistics are approximate statistics based on estimates and assumptions of future development, the population figure in each municipality will vary in these statistics from the population figure in other population statistics published in mid February of the following year. The municipal figures will be less certain than the county and national figures, and the estimated population in the smaller municipalities will be more uncertain than the estimates for larger municipalities.