The Election Survey for the Storting Election show that never before has so many voters changed party allegiance from one election to another. Of those who voted in the 1997 election 37 per cent voted for another party in 2001. Most noticeably was the low loyalty of those who voted Labour in 1997, only 56 per cent of the Labour voters in 1997 sustained their support for the party in 2001.
Since the middle of the 1980s, Norwegian politics has been distinguished by massive electoral swings. In the two previous elections approximately 44 per cent changed their party allegiance, including those who went to and from the abstainer group.
If we exclude the abstainer group and focus on those who actually voted in the last two elections there has been a noteworthy electoral swing. Of the 37 per cent that altered their vote from 1997 to 2001, former Labour supporters that opted for other parties comprised nearly a third. In comparison the equivalent figure for the 1997 election was 7 per cent.
If we focus on the party support in the 1997 election and follow the changes to the 2001 election we find that only 56 per cent of the Labour votes in 1997 stayed loyal to the party in 2001. In comparison 77 per cent of Labours 1993 voters stayed loyal in the 1997 election. In other words there has been a dramatic change in the loyalty of former Labour voters in the 2001 election. It is of interest that Labour has lost more or less the same amount of voters to the Conservative Party (13 per cent) as to the Socialist Left Party (10 per cent). Another 12 per cent of the 1997 Labour supporters chose to abstain from voting in the election. Thus Labours poor result is mainly caused by electoral swings to other parties, not a loss of voters to the abstainer group.
Not surprisingly the two triumphants of the election, Socialist Left Party and the Conservative Party had the most loyal followers. Of its 1997 voters Socialist Left retained 73 per cent in the 2001 election, well above the 33 per cent that voted for the party in the 1993-1997 period. The Conservative Party kept 69 per cent of its 1997 voters.
Somewhat more surprising is the low loyalty of former Christian Democratic Party and Progress Party voters. Even though the Progress Party polled its second best election ever, only 47 per cent of its supporters stayed loyal compared with the 1997 election. This is a decrease from the 65 per cent that upheld the support for the party in the 1993-1997 period. The Progress Party lost a third of its voters to the Conservative Party. Also the Christian Democratic Party lost several voters, however these are more evenly spread among the other parties. Approximately 15 per cent of the voters shifted to the Conservative Party and the Progress Party, while 12 per cent opted for either the Socialist Left Party, the Centre Party or Labour party. In spite of the fact that the Christian Democratic Party performed its second best election ever, the 2001 election represents a significant fall in loyalty among its former supporters. Only 55 per cent of its 1997 voters continued to support the party in 2001. In 1997 however, 82 per cent of the 1993 voters supported the party.
If we focus on where the voters came from, we find that former Socialist Left voters now comprise only 41 per cent of those who voted for the party in 2001. Former Labour voters comprised the largest group of new voters (23 per cent), followed by former Centre Party voters (8 per cent) and former Christian Democratic Party voters and Liberal Party voters (both 5 per cent). Of its voters in 2001, 13 per cent did not participate in the 1997 election.
Of the Conservative Party's voters, 47 per cent is comprised of those who supported the party also in 1997, whereas 17 per cent is former Labour voters and 16 per cent former Progress Party voters. The Conservative Party's attracted substantially fewer voters from the abstainer group than the Socialist Left Party (6 per cent).
Even though the loyalty of the former Labour voters is low, this group comprised 80 per cent of the party's support in 2001. This reflects the lack of new supporters in the 2001 election.
The political parties both lose and win more voters to each other than what is actually revealed from the election result. Of vital importance is of course the balance sheet on Election Day; whether there was a net gain or a net win to the other parties. The Conservative Party had a net gain from all parties, especially Labour Party and the Progress Party. If we examine the relation to the abstainer group, the gains and the losses were levelled out.
Also the Socialist Left party has a net gain in relation to all parties, with a small exception for the Conservative Party. The Labour Party however has a net loss to all other parties and to the abstainer group. Labour looses most to the Conservative Party, the abstainer group and to the Socialist Left party.
The fluctuations for the Liberal Party are naturally not that of the same size, however the Liberal Party has a net gain in relation to the Christian Democratic Party and the Labour Party and a net loss to the Socialist Left party, Centre Party and the Conservative Party. The Centre Party has a net loss to most parties with the exception of the Labour party, the Liberal Party and the abstainer group.
The Christian Democratic Party and the Progress Party had low loyalty among their former voters in spite of the fact that both parties performed their second best election ever. This is also reflected by the net account. The Christian Democratic party has a net gain in relation to the Labour Party and the Centre Party, whereas they have a net loss to the other parties. The Progress Party's loss to the Conservative Party is partly compensated by a net gain in relation to the Christian Democratic party, Centre Party and the Labour Party. In relation to the Liberal Party there is a balance and in relation to the Socialist Left party there is a small decrease.
See also Labour's worst election in 77 years
See also Young voters used their voting rights
More information, please contact: bernt.aardal@isaf.no, tel. +47 23 08 61 60, oyvin.kleven@ssb.no, tel. +47 21 09 40 04, or tor.morten.normann@ssb.no, tel. +47 21 09 44 68.