Cost index for road goods transport

Name: Cost index for road goods transport
Topic: Transport and tourism

Division for Energy, Environmental and Transport Statistics

National.

Statistics for the previous quarter are published around the middle of the following month.

Not relevant

Collected and revised data are stored securely by Statistics Norway in compliance with applicable legislation on data processing.

Statistics Norway can grant access to the source data (de-identified or anonymised microdata) on which the statistics are based, for researchers and public authorities for the purposes of preparing statistical results and analyses. Access can be granted upon application and subject to conditions. Refer to the details about this at Access to data from Statistics Norway.

The purpose of the statistics is to depict the development in the costs linked to the operation of various types of freight transport by road. The development of the index was done in 1997. The index only measures changes in costs and not in productivity and profit margin. The index measures changes in both wages and indirect personnel costs.

The cost index for road goods transport has been produced by Statistics Norway since January 1998. The survey replaced a quarterly cost survey for lorry transport which was prepared by the Transport Economics Institute (TØI) up to and including the 4th quarter of 1997. From and including June 2008, the sub-indices for wages and social costs in the cost index follow the development in the labor cost index for employees in companies that operate goods transport by road. The index measures changes in both wages and indirect personnel costs. Previously, only the salary development was based on the quarterly salary statistics, while the changes in the indirect costs were estimated as part of the index calculation.

From and including January 2009, the statistics were produced with new weights based on accounting figures for 2007 for a selection of companies in the road freight transport industry. At the same time, January 2009 was seen as the new base month in the index (January 2009 = 100). From and including January 2009, a total index for lorry transport was also drawn up. The total index was a weighted average of the cost indices for the vehicle groups. At the urging of the industry, from January 2009, index figures were also produced without ferry and toll costs, because these costs to a greater extent than others are specifically linked to the individual driving assignment.

Statistics Norway (SSB), the Norwegian Truck Association (NLF) and a reference group with representatives of the trucking industry agreed to switch to a new cost index from the 1st quarter of 2019. The new index is calculated back to the 1st quarter of 2016. 1st quarter 2016 is seen as the new base period in the index (1st quarter 2016=100).

From the 1st quarter of 2021, an index without fuel has been produced. A time series back to the first quarter of 2016 was provided.

From the 4th quarter of 2022, the vehicle group van transport was included in the cost index. A time series back to the 4th quarter of 2021 has been drawn up for this vehicle group. The vehicle group van transport is excluded from the total index for truck transport.

From the 2nd quarter of 2025, the vehicle group Car recovery was included in the cost index. A time series back to the 4th quarter of 2021 has beenb drawn up for this vehicle group. The vehicle group car recovery i excluded from the total index for truck transport.

The statistics are financed by the Norwegian Truck Owners' Association.

The statistics are used by businesses for regulation of contracts involving van and lorry transport. In addition, the statistics are used in price negotiations between transport providers and transport users.

With regard to the use of statistics for contract adjustment, it is important to emphasize that Statistics Norway is not responsible for either the users' decision to adjust contracts or the choice of index.

No external users have access to statistics before they are released at 8 a.m. on ssb.no after at least three months’ advance notice in the release calendar. This is one of the most important principles in Statistics Norway for ensuring the equal treatment of users.

The cost index for goods and lorry transport is built according to the same template as:

Cost index for bus: describes the development in the cost level for the bus industry.

Cost index for inland sea transport:Cost index for inland sea transport: describes the development in the cost level of inland sea transport.

The statistics are developed, produced and disseminated pursuant to Act no. 32 of 21 June 2019 relating to official statistics and Statistics Norway (the Statistics Act).

Not relevant

The index measures the quarterly cost development for 8 types of truck transport and van transport. The cost weights in the index are calculated based on accounting information from a selection of companies within industry 49.41 Road transport of goods. The price observations are obtained from suppliers to the road transport industry (banks, insurance companies, workshops, retailers of fuel, tires, vehicles, toll companies, ferry companies, etc.).

The data is largely based on existing statistics in Statistics Norway. In addition, there is direct collection of prices for trucks, superstructures, fuel, tires, and insurance. The suppliers to the road transport industry report quarterly.

There are separate selections for each of the cost items that make up the index.

A. External data sources

1. Capital costs – consist of depreciation costs and interest costs. The price development for chassis and superstructures is obtained from market-dominant suppliers

2. The interest rate trend is based on the 3-month NIBOR interest rate from Norske Finansielle Referenser AS (NoRe) and the banks' lending margin 3. The fuel index is based on indicative truck diesel prices from a selection of retailers across the country for trucking transport. 4. Toll and ferry costs are based on prices for toll companies and ferry companies taken from the Internet. 5. Tire prices are obtained from the largest market-dominant companies and follow the price development for various tire types. 6. Insurance costs are based on reporting from the insurance company that has the largest market shares within the industry. 7. Annual fee/ Traffic insurance fee is collected from the Tax Agency, updated when there are changes in the fee level.

B. Data from Statistics Norway's registers:

1. The consumer price index, CPI

• House rent

• Newspapers and magazines

• Teleservices

• Maintenance and repair

• Auto diesel for van transport

The cost index, which is calculated based on the above-mentioned data and consists of the following cost groups or sub-cost groups for each vehicle group:

Labor costs

• includes paid agreed wages and indirect costs (social costs, employer's tax and the like) in agreed working hours for full-time and part-time employees

Fuel

• is based on indicative truck diesel prices from a selection of dealers across the country for trucking transport and auto diesel from the consumer price index for vans.

Capital costs

• consists of depreciation costs and interest costs. The price development for chassis and superstructures is obtained from market-dominant suppliers. The interest rate trend is based on the 3-month NIBOR interest rate from Norske Finansielle Referenser AS (NoRe) and the banks' lending margin.

Other costs

• Administration costs include rent, postage, telecommunications, paper supplies
• Insurance costs
• Tires
• Public fees
• Maintenance and repair at the workshop. This index captures the general price development of workshop services (parts and hourly price) at car workshops across the country.

Selection percentage, degree of coverage and standard deviation are not calculated for the selection of suppliers.

Up to and including the 4th quarter of 2021, a real interest rate was calculated based on 3-month NIBOR plus loan margin adjusted for inflation with a five-year average of CPI-JAE (CPI adjusted for tax changes and without energy products).

From the 1st quarter of 2022, the 3-month NIBOR obtained from Norske Finansielle Referenser AS (NoRe) and loan margin are used.

The forms for obtaining prices are sent out in the middle of the last month of the quarter.

The respondents receive a request for reporting at the end of each quarter and have a deadline of approximately 15 days to report. The companies must report all values ​​in full NOK 1,000.

The forms received are recorded manually. The forms have simple mathematical and logical registration controls.

Editing

Editing is defined here as checking, examining and amending data.

Large deviations between periods are confirmed with the statistics producer for the internal price measurements and with the respondent for the form collection.

Calculations

Index calculations consist of several steps:

1. determination of weights
2. collection of prices
3. calculation of elementary indices
4. aggregation on vehicle groups, cost or total cost.

The weights used in the cost indices for each vehicle group are calculated using a cost study based on accounting figures in the road freight transport industry. The weights that form the basis of the total index are estimated through market shares for the seven types of lorry transport for which cost indices are created.

The elementary indices: are calculated as geometric averages of the price ratios in the cost group. With 9 vehicle groups and 5 cost groups, we have 45 elementary indices. Aggregation to sub-indices and total index for the industry is carried out using a Laspeyre's method.

Laspeyre's price index: is a price index where the weight basis is kept constant. A chain Laspeyre's index is an index that consists of several Laspeyre's price indices with different weights.

Elementary group: the lowest grouping in the calculation of the index. An elementary index shows a relative price change compared to a previous base price.

Elementary group: the lowest grouping in the calculation of the index. An elementary index shows a relative price change compared to a previous base price.

Elementary group: the lowest grouping in the calculation of the index. An elementary index shows a relative price change compared to a previous base price.

Jevon's index: refers to the way we calculate/aggregate price ratios at the lowest level (elementary group) in the index calculation. A Jevons index is a geometric mean of price ratios.

Base price: is the price in an earlier period against which the current price is compared.

Base year: denotes the year the index is set equal to 100.

The index's reference period is 4th quarter 2021 (4th quarter 2021=100)

The calculation of the indices is done in four steps:

1. First, price indices are calculated for representative goods that make up the cost components in each individual cost group.

2. The component indices are then weighted together to form partial cost indices for each vehicle group.

3. The sub-indices are then weighted together to form cost indices for each of the 8 vehicle groups.

4. From January 2009, the cost indices for the 7 lorry vehicle groups are also weighted together to form a total index for lorry transport.

Cost weight for road goods transport.

Old weights from 1st quarter 2016 - 4th quarter 2021

New weights for road goods transport from 1st quarter 2022

Information about price and weight are the main elements in an index calculation. The price information shows the trends in the most important cost components, while the weight reflects the cost structure for the industry. An index is a weighted price change, a composition of weights and prices.

Not relevant

Since January 2009, the statistics have been produced using weights based on accounting information for 2007 and a new reference period (January 2009 = 100). The former time series of index figures were simultaneously replaced by a new series of figures. The new figures have been chained and recalculated to preserve the comparability of the statistics over time. (Closed time series)

From and including January 2010, the sub-indices for repair and service costs followed the development in the price index for maintenance and repair at workshops which is part of the Consumer Price Index. This index captures the general price development of workshop services (parts and hourly price), and has a development that corresponds to the previous sub-indices for repair and service costs for the various truck types at the largest brand workshops over time.

From the first quarter of 2019, there is a break with previously published index figures. The index has been calculated back to Q1 2016. The first quarter of 2016 is seen as a new base period in the index (Q1 2016 = 100).

Changes from 2022

From the 1st quarter of 2022, the Cost index for road goods transport will be chained to the reference period (The period where the index is equal to 100) instead of being chained to the previous quarter. This is a methodological change that has only marginal consequences for the numbers in the index. The reason for this change is that Statistics Norway believes that this is a more correct method for calculating the index. With the new method, the index will be linked to the period closest to the time of calculation of the weights.

The cost index was updated with new weights from and including the 1st quarter of 2022. The index then changed its reference period from the 1st quarter of 2018=100 to the 4th quarter of 2021=100. Old index values ​​have been revised and adapted to the new reference period. From and including the 1st quarter of 2022, the index will be linked to the reference period instead of being linked to the previous quarter as was done previously. This is more correct as, in theory, you should only chain the index if you update the weight basis.

From the 1st quarter of 2022, the cost group for interest costs will not contain an inflation component. The index thus uses nominal interest + lending margin when calculating interest costs.

New reference period is 4th quarter 2021=100. The index is calculated back to the 1st quarter of 2016 with the 4th quarter of 2021=100.

Measurement error: the price information is compared against corresponding information from the previous quarter. Nevertheless, it may happen that the enterprise gives a price for a different product or service than last quarter, and that this is registered as a price change. The extent of this type of error appears to be small in this index.

Coverage errors: the information have been revised by a set of simple checks. Where there are obvious errors in the information, the figures will be corrected. In the event of partial non-compliance or other errors with a real impact, the enterprise will be contacted. In some cases, the price can be entered with the average price change for other submitted prices for the industry or with a copy of the price for the previous quarter.

Processing error: considered small.

For errors in statistics that are used directly, please refer to "About the Statistics" for these. This applies:

• Labor - Labor cost index (AKI)
• Fuel - Consumer price index (CPI) Price index for auto diesel for vans
• Administrative costs – The Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Over time, there will be change in the cost structure of goods and lorry transport. To weight price changes correctly, the weighting basis should at some point reflect the cost distribution in the company. Satisfaction of this requirement for representativeness occurs by changing the weights at regular intervals. For the Cost index for road goods transport, change of the weights is planned every five years.

Dropout error: after reminders, the response rate is usually 100 per cent.

Coverage failure

In the event of a partial failure or in the event of other errors, the enterprise will be contacted.

The selection of goods and services is planned to be updated as necessary. Products and suppliers which are lost will be replaced. No calculations have been made of selection bias in the Cost index for road goods transport. International surveys for other indices indicate that it is the selection of goods and services that is the source of the greatest bias.

A revision is a planned change to figures that have already been published, for example when releasing final figures as a follow-up to published preliminary figures. See also Statistics Norway’s principles for revisions.

Revisions in previously published seasonally adjusted figures can take place when new observations (or revised previous observations) are included in the basis of calculation. The scope of the revision is usually greatest in the most relevant part (last 1–2 years) of seasonally adjusted time series. A corresponding revision in trends is also typical, particularly at the end of the time series. The extent of the revision of trends and seasonally adjusted figures is partly determined by the revision policy, see Section 4 of the European Statistical System (ESS) Guidelines on Seasonal Adjustment on the Eurostat website. For more information on the revision of seasonally adjusted figures, see the ‘About seasonal adjustment’ section in the relevant statistics.