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Regional population projections
Regional population projections are calculations of how the population in Norway will potentially develop over time, given different assumptions about fertility, mortality, internal migration, immigration and emigration. Read about results, methods and assumptions in the relevant report (in Norwegian).
Updated: 5 June 2024
Next update: 12 June 2026
Modified: The numbers for Haram og Ålesund municipality were corrected.
Selected figures from these statistics
- Population in counties, registered and projected (main alternative)Download table as ...Population in counties, registered and projected (main alternative)
2024 2050 Change in per cent Change in number of persons Østfold 312 152 355 556 13.9 43 404 Akershus 728 803 874 159 19.9 145 356 Oslo 717 710 817 225 13.9 99 515 Innlandet 376 304 395 404 5.1 19 100 Buskerud 269 819 304 611 12.9 34 792 Vestfold 256 432 286 521 11.7 30 089 Telemark 177 093 185 686 4.9 8 593 Agder 319 850 358 010 11.9 38 160 Rogaland 499 417 543 550 8.8 44 133 Vestland 651 299 691 788 6.2 40 489 Møre og Romsdal 270 624 279 339 3.2 8 715 Trøndelag - Trööndelage 482 956 529 458 9.6 46 502 Nordland - Nordlánnda 243 081 241 234 -0.8 -1 847 Troms - Romsa - Tromssa 169 610 175 548 3.5 5 938 Finnmark - Finnmárku - Finmarkku 75 053 76 810 2.3 1 757 The numbers for Haram og Ålesund municipality were corrected on the 13th of September 2024. Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ... - Population in the municipalities January 1. First year registered. Projected in three alternatives in 2050Download table as ...Population in the municipalities January 1. First year registered. Projected in three alternatives in 2050
Registered 2024 Projected 2050 Main alternative (MMMM) Low national growth (LLML) High national growth (HHMH) Halden 31 935 34 707 30 818 38 285 Moss 52 051 60 744 53 696 67 396 Sarpsborg 59 771 66 973 59 315 73 884 Fredrikstad 85 230 95 318 84 518 105 256 Hvaler 4 787 6 101 5 476 6 688 Råde 7 883 9 594 8 396 10 779 Våler (Østfold) 6 145 8 431 7 434 9 341 Skiptvet 3 919 4 740 4 205 5 224 Indre Østfold 47 006 54 053 47 793 59 896 Rakkestad 8 420 9 392 8 341 10 359 Marker 3 658 3 988 3 546 4 391 Aremark 1 347 1 515 1 345 1 671 Bærum 130 921 148 099 129 395 166 195 Oslo municipality 717 710 817 225 715 323 918 459 Asker 98 815 112 954 98 989 126 265 Lillestrøm 94 201 113 461 99 803 126 271 Nordre Follo 63 560 73 983 64 890 82 408 Ullensaker 43 814 57 478 50 339 64 221 Nesodden 20 521 23 653 20 809 26 309 Frogn 16 244 18 101 16 020 20 092 Vestby 19 493 24 377 21 506 27 037 Ås 22 005 28 182 24 462 31 776 Enebakk 11 482 13 266 11 696 14 726 Lørenskog 48 188 63 803 55 835 71 282 Rælingen 20 099 25 355 22 202 28 283 Aurskog-Høland 18 058 20 818 18 464 22 984 Nes 24 645 30 209 26 677 33 431 Gjerdrum 7 398 9 468 8 377 10 483 Nittedal 25 882 30 903 27 067 34 462 Lunner 9 357 10 220 9 038 11 331 Jevnaker 7 037 8 358 7 400 9 244 Nannestad 16 126 22 404 19 715 24 880 Eidsvoll 27 916 35 067 30 898 38 902 Hurdal 3 041 4 000 3 516 4 464 Drammen 104 487 115 964 102 138 129 094 Kongsberg 28 848 32 165 28 262 35 997 Ringerike 31 581 35 080 30 986 38 950 Hole 6 989 8 570 7 551 9 533 Lier 28 470 34 197 29 999 38 170 Øvre Eiker 20 779 25 722 22 767 28 433 Modum 14 665 16 382 14 483 18 167 Krødsherad 2 241 2 334 2 038 2 632 Flå 1 115 1 311 1 143 1 484 Nesbyen 3 301 3 050 2 686 3 414 Gol 4 986 5 535 4 822 6 263 Hemsedal 2 666 3 475 2 984 4 007 Ål 5 007 5 242 4 508 6 002 Hol 4 496 4 891 4 255 5 547 Sigdal 3 526 3 582 3 189 3 961 Flesberg 2 781 3 275 2 896 3 637 Rollag 1 395 1 466 1 297 1 630 Nore og Uvdal 2 486 2 370 2 073 2 675 Kongsvinger 18 058 18 346 16 141 20 463 Hamar 32 879 38 063 33 580 42 256 Lillehammer 28 768 32 314 28 436 35 935 Gjøvik 30 903 33 447 29 405 37 269 Ringsaker 35 612 38 036 33 728 42 013 Løten 7 929 8 558 7 563 9 473 Stange 21 605 24 529 21 653 27 197 Nord-Odal 4 992 4 824 4 301 5 310 Sør-Odal 8 112 9 034 8 055 9 947 Eidskog 6 040 6 129 5 457 6 772 Grue 4 532 4 533 4 010 5 040 Åsnes 7 339 7 282 6 400 8 153 Våler (Innlandet) 3 615 3 502 3 087 3 907 Elverum 21 761 22 590 19 933 25 077 Trysil 6 566 6 094 5 343 6 855 Åmot 4 289 4 856 4 253 5 431 Stor-Elvdal 2 276 2 500 2 171 2 849 Rendalen 1 837 2 055 1 811 2 299 Engerdal 1 361 1 578 1 332 1 863 Tolga 1 604 1 477 1 282 1 674 Tynset 5 692 5 708 4 961 6 445 Alvdal 2 526 2 359 2 068 2 638 Folldal 1 532 1 445 1 281 1 606 Os 1 891 1 876 1 656 2 088 Dovre 2 503 2 462 2 143 2 785 Lesja 1 983 1 707 1 501 1 905 Skjåk 2 141 1 767 1 570 1 954 Lom 2 212 1 916 1 681 2 141 Vågå 3 531 3 063 2 709 3 395 Nord-Fron 5 586 5 033 4 399 5 652 Sel 5 756 5 359 4 605 6 132 Sør-Fron 3 119 3 137 2 723 3 556 Ringebu 4 413 4 221 3 689 4 756 Øyer 5 124 5 436 4 779 6 074 Gausdal 6 177 6 021 5 394 6 597 Østre Toten 14 840 15 071 13 307 16 747 Vestre Toten 13 691 14 816 13 186 16 303 Gran 13 593 13 973 12 415 15 435 Søndre Land 5 587 5 933 5 248 6 596 Nordre Land 6 510 6 187 5 454 6 883 Sør-Aurdal 2 836 2 625 2 331 2 906 Etnedal 1 366 1 452 1 242 1 677 Nord-Aurdal 6 562 6 541 5 725 7 340 Vestre Slidre 2 112 2 177 1 909 2 435 Øystre Slidre 3 298 3 396 2 970 3 825 Vang 1 645 1 976 1 673 2 307 Horten 27 939 29 859 26 348 33 191 Holmestrand 26 872 33 427 29 650 36 915 Tønsberg 59 174 66 892 59 275 74 020 Sandefjord 66 231 73 640 64 997 81 848 Larvik 48 715 52 651 46 709 58 212 Færder 27 501 30 052 26 637 33 245 Porsgrunn 37 193 40 193 35 404 44 728 Skien 56 619 60 551 53 631 66 912 Notodden 13 266 13 535 11 915 15 089 Siljan 2 382 2 674 2 377 2 940 Bamble 14 269 14 244 12 629 15 729 Kragerø 10 445 10 069 8 920 11 171 Drangedal 4 086 3 824 3 364 4 259 Nome 6 539 6 588 5 750 7 418 Midt-Telemark 10 904 12 795 11 150 14 393 Seljord 2 979 2 930 2 560 3 291 Hjartdal 1 630 1 632 1 422 1 843 Tinn 5 533 5 157 4 527 5 797 Kviteseid 2 458 2 513 2 225 2 786 Nissedal 1 471 1 535 1 354 1 717 Fyresdal 1 256 1 313 1 144 1 483 Tokke 2 212 2 171 1 911 2 421 Vinje 3 851 3 962 3 460 4 460 Risør 6 825 6 904 6 101 7 685 Grimstad 24 969 29 383 25 811 32 687 Arendal 46 355 48 284 42 759 53 486 Kristiansand 116 986 139 635 122 764 154 991 Lindesnes 23 690 24 610 21 646 27 429 Farsund 9 876 9 599 8 351 10 853 Flekkefjord 9 279 9 076 7 923 10 185 Gjerstad 2 444 2 423 2 138 2 699 Vegårshei 2 268 2 680 2 332 3 023 Tvedestrand 6 323 7 077 6 274 7 827 Froland 6 236 7 459 6 638 8 176 Lillesand 11 523 13 372 11 806 14 832 Birkenes 5 480 6 251 5 490 6 954 Åmli 1 802 1 942 1 716 2 156 Iveland 1 380 1 639 1 438 1 826 Evje og Hornnes 3 967 4 368 3 756 4 998 Bygland 1 180 1 341 1 170 1 512 Valle 1 205 1 187 1 034 1 335 Bykle 1 011 1 425 1 241 1 613 Vennesla 15 452 17 307 15 287 19 147 Åseral 923 832 731 932 Lyngdal 10 835 11 439 9 952 12 895 Hægebostad 1 776 1 691 1 490 1 876 Kvinesdal 6 192 6 174 5 382 6 957 Sirdal 1 873 1 912 1 676 2 139 Eigersund 15 221 14 857 13 069 16 529 Stavanger 149 048 161 063 140 086 181 837 Haugesund 38 292 41 120 36 039 46 002 Sandnes 83 702 93 609 82 217 104 330 Sokndal 3 347 2 993 2 638 3 330 Lund 3 226 3 224 2 806 3 639 Bjerkreim 2 892 3 026 2 661 3 367 Hå 19 827 21 551 18 811 24 126 Klepp 20 900 24 766 21 758 27 472 Time 19 910 23 350 20 623 25 783 Gjesdal 12 362 14 007 12 294 15 570 Sola 28 685 33 906 29 586 38 025 Randaberg 11 742 13 892 12 151 15 500 Strand 13 703 14 711 12 930 16 349 Hjelmeland 2 643 2 680 2 336 3 026 Suldal 3 889 3 681 3 203 4 150 Sauda 4 572 4 162 3 619 4 694 Kvitsøy 544 680 601 755 Bokn 883 920 817 1 016 Tysvær 11 570 12 722 11 176 14 119 Karmøy 43 306 43 353 38 320 47 853 Utsira 215 305 264 346 Vindafjord 8 938 8 972 7 857 10 040 Bergen 291 940 321 493 282 722 358 284 Kinn 17 349 16 489 14 328 18 634 Etne 4 072 3 783 3 342 4 195 Sveio 5 742 6 092 5 392 6 738 Bømlo 12 268 11 879 10 461 13 225 Stord 19 287 19 505 17 135 21 762 Fitjar 3 203 3 193 2 816 3 540 Tysnes 2 922 2 993 2 646 3 323 Kvinnherad 13 089 11 876 10 504 13 135 Ullensvang 11 017 10 070 8 703 11 486 Eidfjord 968 987 853 1 119 Ulvik 1 089 1 215 1 063 1 362 Voss 16 471 17 546 15 351 19 643 Kvam 8 496 7 812 6 903 8 669 Samnanger 2 502 2 523 2 239 2 787 Bjørnafjorden 26 080 30 340 26 853 33 487 Austevoll 5 300 5 218 4 564 5 842 Øygarden 39 768 44 821 39 679 49 472 Askøy 30 145 32 853 29 113 36 143 Vaksdal 3 852 3 614 3 184 4 033 Modalen 384 412 358 463 Osterøy 8 200 8 340 7 412 9 181 Alver 29 986 31 835 28 262 35 063 Austrheim 2 881 3 240 2 872 3 576 Fedje 519 605 529 679 Masfjorden 1 694 1 765 1 548 1 973 Gulen 2 234 2 304 2 011 2 594 Solund 750 778 673 887 Hyllestad 1 268 1 294 1 134 1 461 Høyanger 3 879 3 325 2 926 3 722 Vik 2 551 2 170 1 903 2 432 Sogndal 12 319 13 889 12 079 15 605 Aurland 1 800 2 263 1 929 2 614 Lærdal 2 160 2 152 1 862 2 445 Årdal 5 239 4 441 3 882 4 992 Luster 5 371 5 118 4 476 5 747 Askvoll 2 986 2 788 2 432 3 136 Fjaler 2 869 3 069 2 570 3 597 Sunnfjord 22 450 22 428 19 701 24 970 Bremanger 3 392 2 771 2 432 3 111 Stad 9 610 9 579 8 383 10 715 Gloppen 5 926 5 715 4 983 6 430 Stryn 7 271 7 205 6 232 8 199 Kristiansund 24 404 24 346 21 482 27 094 Molde 32 816 34 602 30 333 38 716 Ålesund 58 509 62 151 54 394 69 537 Vanylven 3 026 2 585 2 270 2 894 Sande 2 438 2 375 2 054 2 709 Herøy (Møre og Romsdal) 8 968 8 518 7 464 9 546 Ulstein 8 861 9 708 8 414 10 999 Hareid 5 322 5 629 4 878 6 380 Ørsta 10 958 10 531 9 272 11 712 Stranda 4 348 4 298 3 740 4 872 Sykkylven 7 617 6 868 6 055 7 656 Sula 9 720 10 981 9 681 12 158 Giske 8 691 9 747 8 588 10 799 Vestnes 7 147 7 079 6 194 7 954 Rauma 7 299 7 290 6 358 8 216 Aukra 3 678 4 398 3 812 4 972 Averøy 5 955 6 417 5 644 7 168 Gjemnes 2 700 2 946 2 564 3 315 Tingvoll 3 041 3 158 2 732 3 597 Sunndal 7 227 6 812 5 848 7 824 Surnadal 5 953 5 358 4 695 5 999 Smøla 2 159 2 162 1 884 2 443 Aure 3 408 3 243 2 832 3 651 Volda 11 093 12 551 10 883 14 127 Fjord 2 492 2 510 2 198 2 807 Hustadvika 13 437 13 391 11 808 14 857 Haram 9 357 9 685 8 540 10 765 Trondheim - Tråante 214 565 250 341 219 610 279 625 Steinkjer 24 032 23 004 20 164 25 712 Namsos - Nåavmesjenjaelmie 15 083 14 250 12 470 15 941 Frøya 5 453 6 980 5 997 8 003 Osen 898 867 762 967 Oppdal 7 389 7 501 6 533 8 444 Rennebu 2 484 2 396 2 100 2 677 Røros - Rossen 5 685 6 018 5 276 6 738 Holtålen 2 035 1 952 1 719 2 170 Midtre Gauldal 6 140 5 986 5 234 6 700 Melhus 17 560 19 615 17 298 21 724 Skaun 8 484 9 947 8 836 10 922 Malvik 14 783 17 357 15 246 19 297 Selbu 4 216 4 481 3 999 4 921 Tydal 773 791 702 878 Meråker 2 454 2 642 2 320 2 965 Stjørdal 24 717 26 298 23 319 29 025 Frosta 2 645 2 872 2 520 3 211 Levanger - Levangke 20 574 21 670 19 007 24 150 Verdal 15 193 14 986 13 258 16 562 Snåase - Snåsa 2 114 1 996 1 716 2 280 Lierne 1 301 1 109 965 1 257 Raarvihke - Røyrvik 423 383 332 434 Namsskogan 810 920 789 1 053 Grong 2 322 2 466 2 131 2 805 Høylandet 1 222 1 054 908 1 200 Overhalla 3 924 4 098 3 559 4 608 Flatanger 1 116 1 210 1 052 1 366 Leka 604 704 608 798 Inderøy 6 938 7 346 6 477 8 137 Indre Fosen 10 023 9 501 8 357 10 589 Heim 6 093 5 893 5 115 6 671 Hitra 5 323 6 356 5 517 7 194 Ørland 10 522 11 228 9 887 12 456 Åfjord 4 339 4 269 3 743 4 771 Orkland 18 793 19 459 17 235 21 512 Nærøysund 9 968 9 876 8 601 11 103 Rindal 1 958 1 636 1 459 1 794 Bodø 53 712 56 427 49 276 63 351 Narvik 21 580 19 973 17 445 22 482 Bindal 1 399 1 209 1 065 1 352 Sømna 1 976 1 891 1 654 2 117 Brønnøy 7 826 7 395 6 514 8 235 Vega 1 208 1 209 1 050 1 366 Vevelstad 480 534 465 603 Herøy (Nordland) 1 842 1 982 1 709 2 272 Alstahaug 7 421 7 290 6 334 8 262 Leirfjord 2 352 2 550 2 210 2 897 Vefsn 13 469 12 752 11 187 14 243 Grane 1 447 1 416 1 224 1 609 Aarborte - Hattfjelldal 1 284 1 140 977 1 311 Dønna 1 427 1 378 1 190 1 574 Nesna 1 808 2 235 1 890 2 609 Hemnes 4 485 4 237 3 735 4 717 Rana - Raane 25 994 24 114 21 301 26 738 Lurøy 1 886 1 940 1 698 2 178 Træna 442 567 479 661 Rødøy 1 139 982 866 1 093 Meløy 6 180 5 407 4 737 6 063 Gildeskål 1 958 2 304 1 997 2 618 Beiarn 1 062 1 018 887 1 153 Saltdal 4 880 4 749 4 069 5 454 Fauske - Fuosko 9 827 9 644 8 432 10 822 Sørfold - Fuolldá 1 858 1 793 1 565 2 012 Steigen 2 672 2 877 2 496 3 257 Lødingen 2 060 2 167 1 861 2 504 Evenes - Evenássi 1 330 1 467 1 287 1 651 Røst 460 429 380 475 Værøy 683 650 560 742 Flakstad 1 229 1 324 1 147 1 507 Vestvågøy 11 619 11 800 10 256 13 306 Vågan 9 793 10 431 9 006 11 900 Hadsel 8 236 8 057 7 021 9 081 Bø (Nordland) 2 634 2 630 2 309 2 952 Øksnes 4 569 4 457 3 854 5 085 Sortland - Suortá 10 618 10 529 9 187 11 834 Andøy 4 553 4 301 3 729 4 885 Moskenes 954 1 128 973 1 294 Hábmer - Hamarøy 2 729 2 851 2 470 3 246 Tromsø 78 745 85 028 74 019 95 880 Harstad - Hárstták 25 056 24 318 21 300 27 215 Kvæfjord 2 845 3 156 2 730 3 589 Dielddanuorri - Tjeldsund 4 281 4 448 3 887 5 007 Ibestad 1 311 1 302 1 139 1 467 Gratangen - Rivtták 1 070 1 125 987 1 268 Loabák - Lavangen 986 851 742 964 Bardu 3 986 4 448 3 849 5 034 Salangen 2 069 1 977 1 689 2 285 Målselv 6 714 7 087 6 156 7 995 Sørreisa 3 485 3 422 2 977 3 863 Dyrøy 1 073 1 011 883 1 138 Senja 14 894 14 579 12 696 16 467 Balsfjord 5 571 5 655 4 945 6 354 Karlsøy 2 237 2 541 2 225 2 860 Lyngen 2 743 2 499 2 192 2 803 Storfjord - Omasvuotna - Omasvuono 1 825 1 745 1 530 1 960 Gáivuotna - Kåfjord - Kaivuono 1 974 1 758 1 538 1 975 Skjervøy 2 794 2 711 2 328 3 109 Nordreisa - Ráisa - Raisi 4 794 4 642 4 021 5 261 Kvænangen 1 157 1 245 1 090 1 397 Alta 21 708 23 062 20 022 25 956 Hammerfest - Hámmerfeasta 11 338 11 125 9 641 12 637 Sør-Varanger 10 063 10 397 8 988 11 837 Vadsø 5 807 5 573 4 798 6 394 Kárásjohka - Karasjok 2 565 2 321 2 050 2 577 Guovdageaidnu - Kautokeino 2 848 2 550 2 223 2 860 Loppa 864 1 094 945 1 250 Hasvik 979 1 189 1 029 1 356 Måsøy 1 113 1 334 1 154 1 525 Nordkapp 2 951 2 954 2 555 3 364 Porsanger - Porsángu - Porsanki 3 889 3 617 3 177 4 038 Lebesby 1 215 1 308 1 126 1 499 Gamvik 1 070 1 366 1 162 1 593 Deatnu - Tana 2 807 2 838 2 482 3 193 Berlevåg 892 926 797 1 061 Båtsfjord 2 113 2 076 1 768 2 405 Vardø 1 972 2 136 1 831 2 463 Unjárga - Nesseby 859 944 830 1 058 The numbers for Haram og Ålesund municipality were corrected on the 13th of September 2024. Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ... - Download table as ...
Hovedalternativet (MMMM) 2049 2050 Fødte Døde Nettoinnvandring Innenlands nettoinnflytting Fødte Døde Nettoinnvandring Innenlands nettoinnflytting 3101 Halden 268 401 32 171 266 403 30 171 3103 Moss 463 655 95 308 460 662 94 305 3105 Sarpsborg 579 685 45 211 575 692 44 209 3107 Fredrikstad 751 1 059 78 466 744 1 069 77 463 3110 Hvaler 33 95 5 87 33 96 5 87 3112 Råde 77 98 54 7 76 98 53 6 3114 Våler (Østfold) 73 71 5 43 73 72 5 41 3116 Skiptvet 37 48 0 29 38 49 1 27 3118 Indre Østfold 428 569 67 238 426 574 65 234 3120 Rakkestad 76 108 7 48 75 108 7 48 3122 Marker 28 52 1 35 29 52 0 35 3124 Aremark 12 20 1 10 12 21 2 10 3201 Bærum 1 299 1 372 140 369 1 289 1 391 134 357 3203 Asker 898 1 066 144 373 891 1 081 141 364 3205 Lillestrøm 993 963 143 204 986 981 141 198 3207 Nordre Follo 627 654 76 167 622 661 73 159 3209 Ullensaker 503 446 86 158 500 456 85 152 3212 Nesodden 175 240 24 116 174 242 24 113 3214 Frogn 122 220 33 115 121 222 32 114 3216 Vestby 194 222 22 125 191 224 22 122 3218 Ås 261 206 80 -25 260 209 77 -27 3220 Enebakk 105 126 16 53 104 127 15 52 3222 Lørenskog 614 508 66 107 610 516 63 102 3224 Rælingen 242 193 34 10 241 196 32 8 3226 Aurskog-Høland 159 223 15 136 158 225 15 134 3228 Nes 250 297 14 158 248 300 12 155 3230 Gjerdrum 71 88 9 61 71 90 9 58 3232 Nittedal 255 260 47 67 254 265 46 64 3234 Lunner 81 116 21 32 81 118 22 31 3236 Jevnaker 65 91 11 48 65 92 11 47 3238 Nannestad 204 166 15 75 203 169 13 72 3240 Eidsvoll 318 318 26 137 316 323 25 134 3242 Hurdal 31 40 10 18 31 41 10 18 0301 Oslo - Oslove 9 711 5 832 1 077 -3 366 9 637 5 898 1 047 -3 289 3301 Drammen 1 018 1 113 217 146 1 011 1 122 213 145 3303 Kongsberg 253 329 97 58 253 331 96 57 3305 Ringerike 281 397 73 129 278 399 73 128 3310 Hole 65 87 14 44 64 89 15 44 3312 Lier 279 314 76 93 278 318 75 88 3314 Øvre Eiker 221 248 23 119 220 249 22 117 3316 Modum 130 189 35 68 129 189 34 68 3318 Krødsherad 16 31 12 5 17 31 12 3 3320 Flå 10 16 9 -2 10 15 9 -2 3322 Nesbyen 21 46 14 3 22 46 13 4 3324 Gol 42 61 32 -9 41 61 32 -8 3326 Hemsedal 29 30 39 -22 28 31 40 -23 3328 Ål 40 64 40 -25 39 63 41 -26 3330 Hol 38 61 34 -7 39 61 33 -8 3332 Sigdal 23 49 9 16 23 49 9 15 3334 Flesberg 26 37 9 11 26 37 9 11 3336 Rollag 10 20 5 6 10 20 4 6 3338 Nore og Uvdal 17 35 16 -3 17 35 15 -3 3401 Kongsvinger 131 241 45 64 130 241 45 63 3403 Hamar 311 400 69 111 309 400 68 109 3405 Lillehammer 280 332 56 62 279 333 54 60 3407 Gjøvik 278 357 92 26 276 356 90 25 3411 Ringsaker 302 442 67 119 300 446 67 118 3412 Løten 71 98 12 25 70 98 12 25 3413 Stange 207 265 46 60 205 266 47 58 3414 Nord-Odal 31 75 2 39 30 75 4 38 3415 Sør-Odal 65 114 11 57 64 116 11 58 3416 Eidskog 38 97 8 49 38 97 8 49 3417 Grue 30 70 13 24 31 69 12 23 3418 Åsnes 48 109 35 18 48 108 34 18 3419 Våler (Innlandet) 22 57 12 20 22 57 12 19 3420 Elverum 193 258 50 28 192 259 49 27 3421 Trysil 41 88 32 6 41 88 31 7 3422 Åmot 43 54 9 6 42 55 10 7 3423 Stor-Elvdal 18 38 26 -3 18 37 25 -4 3424 Rendalen 12 32 8 14 13 32 8 13 3425 Engerdal 9 22 29 -17 9 22 29 -17 3426 Tolga 12 20 8 -6 11 20 9 -5 3427 Tynset 45 71 29 -11 45 71 28 -11 3428 Alvdal 18 32 10 -3 18 32 9 -3 3429 Folldal 9 23 4 8 10 23 4 8 3430 Os 13 27 6 4 14 27 5 5 3431 Dovre 19 35 17 -5 19 34 16 -4 3432 Lesja 12 26 5 1 13 25 5 0 3433 Skjåk 12 29 3 4 12 29 3 4 3434 Lom 15 29 7 -4 16 29 6 -3 3435 Vågå 23 45 6 1 24 46 7 1 3436 Nord-Fron 38 72 22 -1 37 73 24 -2 3437 Sel 41 76 41 -30 41 76 40 -30 3438 Sør-Fron 23 41 23 -7 23 42 22 -7 3439 Ringebu 33 56 24 -9 33 56 23 -7 3440 Øyer 43 64 20 6 45 65 20 5 3441 Gausdal 44 78 4 24 44 80 5 25 3442 Østre Toten 119 191 48 30 119 190 47 29 3443 Vestre Toten 121 167 19 48 120 168 20 47 3446 Gran 95 185 27 77 95 188 28 77 3447 Søndre Land 42 82 23 25 41 83 24 25 3448 Nordre Land 44 91 18 21 44 92 19 21 3449 Sør-Aurdal 18 40 5 13 18 41 5 13 3450 Etnedal 11 19 16 -9 9 19 16 -8 3451 Nord-Aurdal 52 85 25 -2 53 86 24 -1 3452 Vestre Slidre 16 28 7 3 17 29 6 4 3453 Øystre Slidre 25 45 19 -1 25 45 18 -1 3454 Vang 14 21 31 -21 15 21 30 -21 3901 Horten 227 347 74 94 225 350 74 94 3903 Holmestrand 268 350 45 175 266 355 46 173 3905 Tønsberg 531 699 116 214 527 707 115 212 3907 Sandefjord 562 800 145 262 557 808 143 260 3909 Larvik 387 626 98 213 383 629 98 211 3911 Færder 206 370 42 174 205 371 41 172 4001 Porsgrunn 323 449 126 44 321 452 124 44 4003 Skien 497 673 97 129 492 676 96 129 4005 Notodden 109 167 41 10 107 167 42 10 4010 Siljan 22 30 2 12 22 29 1 12 4012 Bamble 106 184 26 42 105 183 25 42 4014 Kragerø 67 142 30 33 67 143 30 34 4016 Drangedal 29 53 12 6 29 53 12 6 4018 Nome 49 86 36 -4 49 86 35 -3 4020 Midt-Telemark 112 124 60 -12 111 125 60 -12 4022 Seljord 24 38 12 0 24 38 13 -1 4024 Hjartdal 12 20 9 -5 12 21 9 -4 4026 Tinn 33 77 32 1 32 77 32 1 4028 Kviteseid 17 35 5 11 17 34 4 10 4030 Nissedal 9 21 8 3 10 21 7 3 4032 Fyresdal 9 19 7 2 8 18 7 2 4034 Tokke 16 30 6 3 16 30 7 3 4036 Vinje 33 50 19 -5 33 50 20 -6 4201 Risør 46 97 27 24 46 98 27 24 4202 Grimstad 264 265 60 21 262 267 59 20 4203 Arendal 366 561 105 103 362 564 105 103 4204 Kristiansand 1 384 1 216 171 151 1 373 1 231 167 144 4205 Lindesnes 200 283 83 0 197 285 83 2 4206 Farsund 77 116 63 -39 77 117 63 -38 4207 Flekkefjord 79 106 39 -25 77 106 40 -25 4211 Gjerstad 18 33 11 1 17 33 11 1 4212 Vegårshei 22 28 14 -6 22 29 13 -5 4213 Tvedestrand 54 88 12 32 53 88 12 33 4214 Froland 66 71 -1 29 65 72 0 29 4215 Lillesand 112 139 32 38 111 141 31 37 4216 Birkenes 58 54 18 -5 57 54 17 -6 4217 Åmli 15 25 5 6 14 24 6 6 4218 Iveland 15 17 4 2 15 17 4 3 4219 Evje og Hornnes 36 47 35 -22 35 47 35 -21 4220 Bygland 10 17 7 2 10 18 8 1 4221 Valle 11 16 5 -2 10 15 5 -3 4222 Bykle 12 14 9 -1 11 13 9 -1 4223 Vennesla 167 165 33 -4 165 166 32 -4 4224 Åseral 6 11 3 -2 6 11 4 -2 4225 Lyngdal 100 113 65 -48 99 114 65 -48 4226 Hægebostad 14 19 4 -2 14 19 4 -2 4227 Kvinesdal 51 73 34 -23 51 73 34 -23 4228 Sirdal 16 21 7 -5 15 21 8 -4 1101 Eigersund 131 169 37 -26 131 171 37 -25 1103 Stavanger 1 582 1 481 295 -292 1 565 1 498 293 -283 1106 Haugesund 373 429 116 -37 370 432 114 -36 1108 Sandnes 920 804 149 -87 911 816 148 -85 1111 Sokndal 25 39 8 -5 24 40 9 -4 1112 Lund 28 38 19 -13 28 38 19 -13 1114 Bjerkreim 25 32 7 -3 25 34 8 -3 1119 Hå 225 197 66 -62 222 199 65 -61 1120 Klepp 263 194 20 -12 261 197 20 -13 1121 Time 241 197 16 6 240 200 15 5 1122 Gjesdal 139 121 22 -6 137 123 22 -6 1124 Sola 350 273 43 -33 346 279 44 -34 1127 Randaberg 137 117 25 -5 136 120 26 -7 1130 Strand 141 139 27 -10 140 141 28 -11 1133 Hjelmeland 20 32 15 -4 20 33 16 -5 1134 Suldal 30 45 18 -12 29 46 18 -11 1135 Sauda 32 54 21 -14 32 54 20 -14 1144 Kvitsøy 5 8 2 5 5 8 1 5 1145 Bokn 7 12 2 3 7 11 1 2 1146 Tysvær 121 119 22 -11 121 120 21 -11 1149 Karmøy 405 456 54 -50 401 458 54 -50 1151 Utsira 2 4 2 2 2 4 2 1 1160 Vindafjord 79 100 30 -19 79 101 30 -19 4601 Bergen 3 272 2 805 392 -467 3 243 2 832 386 -447 4602 Kinn 133 203 91 -72 132 204 91 -71 4611 Etne 30 48 8 -1 31 48 8 -2 4612 Sveio 48 69 13 12 49 70 12 12 4613 Bømlo 93 133 42 -24 91 132 42 -23 4614 Stord 165 197 65 -45 164 199 64 -44 4615 Fitjar 24 38 5 5 24 39 6 5 4616 Tysnes 22 40 7 12 21 40 8 13 4617 Kvinnherad 97 155 23 -9 95 154 23 -9 4618 Ullensvang 79 133 86 -66 79 134 86 -66 4619 Eidfjord 9 13 5 -3 9 13 4 -3 4620 Ulvik 8 14 5 1 9 15 4 1 4621 Voss 156 190 64 -24 155 191 63 -24 4622 Kvam 61 100 20 1 59 101 20 3 4623 Samnanger 20 33 5 8 20 32 4 8 4624 Bjørnafjorden 277 283 29 70 275 286 27 69 4625 Austevoll 45 59 17 -4 44 58 17 -5 4626 Øygarden 405 433 62 74 402 440 61 72 4627 Askøy 316 296 23 28 311 298 23 27 4628 Vaksdal 27 48 14 -2 26 49 14 0 4629 Modalen 3 5 2 1 3 4 1 0 4630 Osterøy 72 92 11 10 72 93 12 9 4631 Alver 273 336 43 56 270 337 42 55 4632 Austrheim 25 36 5 14 25 36 5 13 4633 Fedje 4 7 3 1 4 8 3 1 4634 Masfjorden 13 23 7 1 13 23 6 1 4635 Gulen 20 29 12 -6 19 28 12 -6 4636 Solund 6 11 6 -1 6 11 6 -2 4637 Hyllestad 7 17 9 0 8 18 9 1 4638 Høyanger 22 52 16 -5 21 52 17 -5 4639 Vik 16 32 9 -5 16 33 9 -4 4640 Sogndal 148 122 54 -61 148 124 54 -60 4641 Aurland 21 22 21 -15 22 22 20 -16 4642 Lærdal 17 29 13 -5 17 29 14 -6 4643 Årdal 33 64 21 -19 33 63 20 -17 4644 Luster 42 63 22 -14 41 63 22 -14 4645 Askvoll 20 40 10 1 20 40 10 1 4646 Fjaler 31 31 45 -41 31 31 45 -42 4647 Sunnfjord 212 236 67 -80 210 238 67 -80 4648 Bremanger 19 43 13 -5 18 42 13 -4 4649 Stad 79 114 31 -13 79 115 31 -13 4650 Gloppen 47 68 27 -17 47 68 27 -17 4651 Stryn 60 81 51 -38 59 80 50 -38 1505 Kristiansund 195 292 71 -6 193 292 71 -4 1506 Molde 306 378 116 -45 303 378 116 -45 1508 Ålesund 594 615 161 -112 589 618 160 -112 1511 Vanylven 18 43 8 0 18 43 8 1 1514 Sande 17 31 18 -8 18 32 18 -7 1515 Herøy (Møre og Romsdal) 68 105 34 -20 68 105 33 -21 1516 Ulstein 89 97 52 -36 88 98 52 -36 1517 Hareid 48 61 31 -21 47 61 30 -20 1520 Ørsta 92 123 29 -18 91 122 29 -18 1525 Stranda 34 51 26 -13 34 52 27 -13 1528 Sykkylven 50 89 23 -10 48 89 24 -10 1531 Sula 100 98 11 12 99 99 12 11 1532 Giske 91 92 12 16 89 92 12 15 1535 Vestnes 52 92 34 -7 51 92 34 -7 1539 Rauma 56 87 31 -13 56 86 31 -13 1547 Aukra 38 40 21 -6 37 39 20 -5 1554 Averøy 49 77 24 7 48 77 25 6 1557 Gjemnes 25 34 12 0 24 34 13 -1 1560 Tingvoll 23 40 27 -9 23 41 27 -9 1563 Sunndal 52 91 70 -59 52 91 70 -59 1566 Surnadal 42 76 21 -10 43 75 20 -10 1573 Smøla 17 30 13 -4 17 30 13 -4 1576 Aure 24 47 15 -2 24 48 16 -2 1577 Volda 132 114 55 -61 132 114 55 -63 1578 Fjord 20 34 6 5 19 34 6 5 1579 Hustadvika 117 154 23 -1 114 154 23 0 1580 Haram 79 112 21 14 79 113 21 13 5001 Trondheim - Tråante 2 484 1 986 489 -302 2 465 2 004 480 -300 5006 Steinkjer - Stïentje 190 291 86 -32 188 289 85 -31 5007 Namsos - Nåavmesjenjaelmie 132 177 56 -48 131 176 55 -46 5014 Frøya 63 63 55 -28 62 65 55 -27 5020 Osen 6 13 2 4 6 14 3 3 5021 Oppdal 60 88 35 -11 61 89 35 -12 5022 Rennebu 20 33 8 2 20 33 9 1 5025 Røros - Rosse 50 79 20 9 49 78 20 9 5026 Holtålen 16 27 4 3 15 26 5 2 5027 Midtre Gauldal 55 72 19 -9 55 73 20 -9 5028 Melhus 178 184 35 14 177 186 35 14 5029 Skaun 91 86 2 32 90 86 1 30 5031 Malvik 155 143 33 0 153 145 33 -2 5032 Selbu 34 54 4 22 34 54 4 21 5033 Tydal 6 12 3 2 6 13 3 2 5034 Meråker 19 34 16 1 18 33 16 2 5035 Stjørdal 218 282 50 49 216 285 49 50 5036 Frosta 23 36 10 7 22 36 10 7 5037 Levanger - Levangke 201 234 67 -32 200 234 65 -33 5038 Verdal 131 181 23 5 129 180 22 7 5041 Snåase - Snåsa 14 27 14 -10 15 28 14 -10 5042 Lierne 7 18 8 -3 6 17 8 -3 5043 Raarvihke - Røyrvik 3 7 3 0 3 6 2 -1 5044 Namsskogan 7 12 6 -1 7 13 6 0 5045 Grong 21 29 20 -13 20 29 21 -14 5046 Høylandet 8 15 7 -6 8 14 6 -5 5047 Overhalla 38 43 16 -14 38 45 16 -13 5049 Flatanger 10 17 6 1 10 17 6 1 5052 Leka 5 9 4 1 6 10 4 0 5053 Inderøy 58 85 9 16 58 86 10 16 5054 Indre Fosen 73 125 32 3 72 125 31 3 5055 Heim 47 77 34 -21 46 77 33 -20 5056 Hitra 59 64 31 -6 59 64 31 -7 5057 Ørland 104 125 21 9 104 124 20 8 5058 Åfjord 35 56 15 1 35 56 14 1 5059 Orkland 161 232 35 46 160 233 35 46 5060 Nærøysund 92 111 47 -41 91 111 46 -40 5061 Rindal 13 23 0 2 13 24 0 3 1804 Bodø 534 554 235 -223 530 559 233 -222 1806 Narvik 165 263 98 -67 163 261 97 -65 1811 Bindal 8 20 5 2 7 20 4 4 1812 Sømna 15 26 5 1 14 25 5 1 1813 Brønnøy 60 92 24 -15 59 93 25 -15 1815 Vega 8 17 6 2 8 18 7 1 1816 Vevelstad 4 6 3 -1 4 7 3 1 1818 Herøy (Nordland) 13 26 19 -7 14 26 19 -7 1820 Alstahaug 61 89 52 -41 61 90 52 -40 1822 Leirfjord 21 32 18 -7 19 32 19 -7 1824 Vefsn 112 157 44 -34 110 158 44 -33 1825 Grane 11 19 8 -3 11 19 9 -4 1826 Aarborte - Hattfjelldal 9 17 14 -10 8 16 13 -10 1827 Dønna 9 20 11 -4 10 21 11 -5 1828 Nesna 17 25 31 -19 17 24 30 -19 1832 Hemnes 34 54 13 -3 34 53 13 -4 1833 Rana - Raane 206 295 61 -47 204 295 60 -47 1834 Lurøy 15 25 8 1 14 24 8 1 1835 Træna 5 5 7 -6 5 6 7 -5 1836 Rødøy 7 15 2 1 8 15 2 1 1837 Meløy 42 74 24 -17 42 75 23 -15 1838 Gildeskål 16 31 15 2 17 32 15 2 1839 Beiarn 7 15 5 -1 6 15 7 -2 1840 Saltdal 34 65 40 -26 33 63 39 -26 1841 Fauske - Fuossko 77 124 36 -17 77 124 36 -17 1845 Sørfold - Fuolldá 15 25 5 1 14 24 5 2 1848 Steigen 22 36 15 0 22 37 15 0 1851 Lødingen 13 33 27 -12 13 33 27 -12 1853 Evenes - Evenássi 10 19 8 2 9 20 9 3 1856 Røst 3 7 0 2 3 7 1 1 1857 Værøy 5 9 6 -2 5 9 5 -2 1859 Flakstad 10 17 9 -3 9 17 9 -3 1860 Vestvågøy 107 133 54 -38 106 134 53 -37 1865 Vågan 88 117 83 -56 88 116 82 -56 1866 Hadsel 67 100 43 -25 66 101 43 -25 1867 Bø 17 39 13 6 18 40 12 6 1868 Øksnes 32 56 38 -25 32 55 37 -26 1870 Sortland - Suortá 89 119 47 -35 88 120 47 -34 1871 Andøy 35 58 30 -17 35 59 30 -17 1874 Moskenes 9 13 11 -3 8 13 11 -3 1875 Hábmer - Hamarøy 21 39 21 -5 21 38 20 -5 5501 Tromsø 873 754 302 -394 867 761 298 -391 5503 Harstad - Hárstták 220 282 93 -85 219 280 91 -84 5510 Kvæfjord 26 39 24 -13 26 39 24 -13 5512 Dielddanuorri - Tjeldsund 32 60 22 0 31 60 22 1 5514 Ibestad 8 20 8 2 8 20 7 2 5516 Gratangen - Rivtták 7 16 8 2 6 16 8 3 5518 Loabák - Lavangen 5 13 6 -1 5 13 7 -2 5520 Bardu 47 42 23 -26 46 40 23 -27 5522 Salangen 15 27 28 -20 15 26 28 -20 5524 Målselv 68 76 32 -28 67 76 32 -27 5526 Sørreisa 29 40 18 -15 28 40 19 -15 5528 Dyrøy 7 16 4 3 6 17 4 4 5530 Senja 117 180 84 -45 116 180 84 -44 5532 Balsfjord 43 73 21 7 43 73 21 6 5534 Karlsøy 16 35 12 10 17 36 13 9 5536 Lyngen - Ivgu - Yykeä 17 37 10 1 16 37 9 3 5538 Storfjord - Omasvuotna - Omasvuono 11 25 9 2 12 25 8 3 5540 Gáivuotna - Kåfjord - Kaivuono 12 28 8 4 12 29 8 5 5542 Skjervøy 22 31 24 -19 22 31 24 -19 5544 Nordreisa - Ráisa - Raisi 37 59 25 -12 37 60 27 -13 5546 Kvænangen 8 18 5 4 9 17 4 3 5601 Alta 240 214 87 -119 239 216 86 -119 5603 Hammerfest - Hámmerfeasta 104 120 73 -75 103 121 72 -73 5605 Sør-Varanger 94 119 71 -61 94 119 69 -60 5607 Vadsø 46 68 60 -56 47 68 58 -55 5610 Kárásjohka - Karasjok 19 34 2 3 17 33 3 2 5612 Guovdageaidnu - Kautokeino 22 33 7 -6 21 33 7 -5 5614 Loppa 8 13 9 -1 8 13 8 0 5616 Hasvik 8 13 9 -1 9 14 9 -1 5618 Måsøy 9 16 10 0 9 15 11 -1 5620 Nordkapp 23 39 19 -10 23 38 18 -9 5622 Porsanger - Porsángu - Porsanki 27 53 6 10 26 53 6 10 5624 Lebesby 10 18 12 -3 10 17 10 -3 5626 Gamvik 8 15 19 -8 9 16 19 -7 5628 Deatnu - Tana 23 38 11 2 22 38 12 3 5630 Berlevåg 7 13 9 -3 7 13 8 -3 5632 Båtsfjord 18 24 24 -22 18 23 23 -22 5634 Vardø 16 30 21 -8 16 30 21 -7 5636 Unjárga - Nesseby 6 12 4 2 7 13 4 2 Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ...
About the statistics
The information under «About the statistics» was last updated 4 July 2022.
A population projection is an estimate of the future size and composition of a population, typically given certain assumptions of future fertility, life expectancy, domestic migration, immigration and emigration.
To demonstrate that population projections are uncertain, Statistics Norway publishes several projection alternatives. The MMMM alternative which assumes the medium level for each component is what we assume to be most plausible at the time of projection.
The variables and terms used in the population projections are described in the projections' report.
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Name: Regional population projections
Topic: Population
12 June 2026
Research department, Unit for Public Economics and Demographic Models
The lowest regional levels for the population projections are municipalities.
The population projections are published biennially.
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The population projections utilize aggregated individual level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. The results from the projections are stored in the StatBank at Statistics Norway and as separate files. Aggregated data may be downloaded electronically from the StatBank.
The population projections aim at informing planning and public debate on population issues.
SSB has produced population projections regularly since the 1950s. Previous population projections can be found here, and in the StatBank.
The most important users of Statistics Norway's population projections are public and private planning bodies at the municipal, county and central government levels, as well as journalists, researchers, politicians and the general public.
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To project the population, assumptions are needed on future fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration. After the assumptions are made, the Norwegian population is projected using the cohort component models BEFREG.
The methods used are further described in the projections' report.
The population projections utilize aggregated individual level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. We use data categorized by age, sex and place of residence for 1 January each year, in addition to figures on births, deaths, domestic migration, immigration and emigration by age, sex and municipality/city district.
No samples are used. The projections utilize the whole population in estimations.
The methods used in the population projections are further described in the projections' report.
See the projections' report.
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The regional population projections are not directly comparable across publications because of changes in methodology and regional borders.
There is a marked uncertainty about whether the assumptions used in making the population projections will accurately reflect future demographic trends. Over the past decade, future immigration has proven to be the most difficult component to project. This is also likely to be the case in the years ahead. Fertility, mortality and internal migration can also be very different from what was projected.
Models are simplifications of reality, and as such may only capture a few key mechanisms. This means that there are a multitude of other conditions that will affect population development which are not considered.
Errors in the population statistics system are usually modest in Norway and play a minor role in the projections
In summary, the uncertainty increases with time.
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- Befolkningsframskrivinger for kommunene, 2020-2050
- Empirical Bayes estimation of local demographic rates - An application using Norwegian registry data. Documents (2020/03)
- Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules: reducing small area problems and preserving regional variation
Contact
Henvendelser om regionale framskrivinger
regfram@ssb.noRelatert innhold
Analyses, articles and publications
Report / 5 June 2024Municipal population projections 2024The backdrop for this year’s population projections for Norwegian municipalities is substantial immigration, particularly from Ukraine. In the main scenario, the projections show especially strong population growth in the short term, but also growth in the longer term.
Document / 6 February 2020Empirical Bayes estimation of local demographic ratesLocal governments and businesses rely on regional population projections to make informed planning and policy decisions. A prerequisite for producing reliable regional projections is access to high quality demographic rates, also for small populations.
Discussion paper / 28 April 2021Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules: reducing small area problems and preserving regional variationReliable local demographic schedules are in high demand, but small area problems pose a challenge to estimation. The literature has directed little attention to the opportunities created by increased availability of high-quality geo-coded data.