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Regional population projections
Regional population projections are calculations of how the population in Norway will potentially develop over time, given different assumptions about fertility, mortality, internal migration, immigration and emigration. Read about results, methods and assumptions in the relevant report (in Norwegian).
Updated: 12 June 2026
Next update: Not yet determined
Selected figures from these statistics
- Population in counties, registered and projected (main alternative)Download table as ...Population in counties, registered and projected (main alternative)
2026 2050 Change in per cent Change in number of persons Østfold 316 448 359 918 13.7 43 470 Akershus 749 207 898 014 19.9 148 807 Oslo - Oslove 728 714 844 646 15.9 115 932 Innlandet 379 488 397 124 4.6 17 636 Buskerud 272 981 307 741 12.7 34 760 Vestfold 259 332 288 054 11.1 28 722 Telemark 177 923 184 526 3.7 6 603 Agder 323 930 359 654 11.0 35 724 Rogaland 508 922 559 177 9.9 50 255 Vestland 658 342 699 100 6.2 40 758 Møre og Romsdal 273 169 277 987 1.8 4 818 Trøndelag - Trööndelage 489 166 531 553 8.7 42 387 Nordland - Nordlánnda 243 272 235 856 -3.0 -7 416 Troms - Romsa - Tromssa 171 218 175 965 2.8 4 747 Finnmark - Finnmárku - Finmarkku 75 288 76 544 1.7 1 256 Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ... - Population in the municipalities January 1. First year registered. Projected in three alternatives in 2050Download table as ...Population in the municipalities January 1. First year registered. Projected in three alternatives in 2050
Registered 2026 Projected 2050 Main alternative (MMMM) Low national growth (LLML) High national growth (HHMH) Halden 32 082 34 572 30 872 38 029 Moss 53 207 61 872 54 924 68 560 Sarpsborg 60 614 68 443 60 885 75 312 Fredrikstad 86 243 96 250 85 918 105 880 Hvaler 4 714 5 692 5 152 6 204 Råde 7 892 9 499 8 331 10 694 Våler (Østfold) 6 229 8 441 7 484 9 316 Skiptvet 3 940 4 729 4 217 5 197 Indre Østfold 47 943 55 403 49 249 61 217 Rakkestad 8 583 9 520 8 512 10 443 Marker 3 647 3 970 3 556 4 348 Aremark 1 354 1 527 1 362 1 680 Bærum 133 228 149 844 131 494 167 693 Asker 101 509 116 086 102 301 129 275 Lillestrøm 96 771 117 180 103 487 130 171 Nordre Follo 65 381 76 582 67 449 85 060 Ullensaker 45 982 60 581 53 312 67 558 Nesodden 21 005 24 521 21 694 27 163 Frogn 16 429 18 515 16 443 20 517 Vestby 20 167 24 668 21 854 27 300 Ås 22 725 29 360 25 655 32 990 Enebakk 11 697 13 653 12 103 15 101 Lørenskog 51 511 69 088 60 704 77 058 Rælingen 20 904 26 256 23 112 29 225 Aurskog-Høland 18 458 21 048 18 802 23 129 Nes 24 948 29 917 26 562 33 023 Gjerdrum 7 478 9 669 8 609 10 667 Nittedal 26 032 30 609 26 940 34 055 Lunner 9 463 10 308 9 176 11 381 Jevnaker 7 040 8 128 7 243 8 954 Nannestad 16 662 22 711 20 063 25 186 Eidsvoll 28 739 35 422 31 361 39 215 Hurdal 3 078 3 868 3 408 4 326 Oslo - Oslove 728 714 844 646 742 652 948 418 Drammen 106 013 117 795 104 428 130 628 Kongsberg 29 169 32 231 28 463 36 021 Ringerike 31 942 35 746 31 780 39 565 Hole 7 205 8 627 7 648 9 559 Lier 28 797 34 368 30 257 38 332 Øvre Eiker 20 965 25 774 22 940 28 409 Modum 14 776 16 410 14 584 18 163 Krødsherad 2 276 2 409 2 102 2 729 Flå 1 122 1 291 1 132 1 460 Nesbyen 3 234 2 891 2 562 3 222 Gol 4 902 5 525 4 817 6 272 Hemsedal 2 707 3 433 2 946 3 975 Ål 5 106 5 566 4 714 6 499 Hol 4 552 4 948 4 298 5 649 Sigdal 3 514 3 522 3 139 3 896 Flesberg 2 790 3 307 2 950 3 652 Rollag 1 452 1 528 1 350 1 704 Nore og Uvdal 2 459 2 370 2 084 2 672 Kongsvinger 18 191 18 385 16 247 20 477 Hamar 33 817 38 837 34 442 43 010 Lillehammer 29 669 33 318 29 441 36 946 Gjøvik 31 350 33 783 29 951 37 486 Ringsaker 36 199 39 212 34 935 43 210 Løten 7 951 8 506 7 597 9 349 Stange 21 839 24 362 21 661 26 892 Nord-Odal 4 978 4 818 4 326 5 277 Sør-Odal 8 165 8 931 8 033 9 774 Eidskog 6 103 6 169 5 512 6 795 Grue 4 463 4 543 4 050 5 017 Åsnes 7 216 7 071 6 275 7 868 Våler (Innlandet) 3 614 3 557 3 153 3 959 Elverum 21 937 22 377 19 912 24 709 Trysil 6 474 5 931 5 208 6 690 Åmot 4 191 4 801 4 239 5 345 Stor-Elvdal 2 239 2 401 2 096 2 728 Rendalen 1 836 1 966 1 729 2 212 Engerdal 1 287 1 558 1 288 1 887 Tolga 1 609 1 515 1 324 1 712 Tynset 5 762 5 861 5 136 6 579 Alvdal 2 492 2 342 2 070 2 613 Folldal 1 525 1 464 1 298 1 630 Os 1 871 1 839 1 632 2 040 Dovre 2 523 2 393 2 108 2 686 Lesja 1 966 1 701 1 514 1 882 Skjåk 2 185 1 880 1 677 2 076 Lom 2 239 1 970 1 735 2 200 Vågå 3 553 3 116 2 769 3 445 Nord-Fron 5 493 4 870 4 290 5 450 Sel 5 469 4 905 4 253 5 603 Sør-Fron 3 108 3 056 2 655 3 479 Ringebu 4 497 4 369 3 789 4 978 Øyer 5 130 5 340 4 718 5 954 Gausdal 6 147 5 899 5 328 6 421 Østre Toten 14 925 15 092 13 416 16 694 Vestre Toten 13 612 14 517 13 002 15 915 Gran 13 689 13 995 12 545 15 375 Søndre Land 5 603 5 851 5 209 6 486 Nordre Land 6 510 6 050 5 391 6 687 Sør-Aurdal 2 841 2 715 2 423 2 993 Etnedal 1 593 2 022 1 656 2 431 Nord-Aurdal 6 424 6 115 5 379 6 856 Vestre Slidre 2 190 2 346 2 063 2 622 Øystre Slidre 3 347 3 365 2 960 3 786 Vang 1 666 2 010 1 680 2 391 Horten 28 173 29 997 26 648 33 244 Holmestrand 27 086 32 833 29 275 36 169 Tønsberg 60 246 68 318 60 789 75 449 Sandefjord 67 062 74 319 65 875 82 467 Larvik 49 022 52 544 46 976 57 771 Færder 27 743 30 043 26 760 33 161 Porsgrunn 37 435 39 938 35 436 44 299 Skien 56 906 59 555 53 038 65 670 Notodden 13 389 13 544 11 966 15 099 Siljan 2 377 2 650 2 367 2 901 Bamble 14 267 14 419 12 882 15 837 Kragerø 10 378 9 914 8 863 10 932 Drangedal 4 056 3 791 3 365 4 204 Nome 6 529 6 737 5 891 7 601 Midt-Telemark 11 157 12 775 11 184 14 375 Seljord 2 959 2 853 2 506 3 203 Hjartdal 1 638 1 663 1 450 1 881 Tinn 5 515 5 186 4 583 5 812 Kviteseid 2 463 2 484 2 196 2 767 Nissedal 1 509 1 535 1 350 1 726 Fyresdal 1 274 1 272 1 114 1 433 Tokke 2 242 2 231 1 972 2 489 Vinje 3 829 3 979 3 476 4 492 Risør 6 683 6 687 5 958 7 417 Grimstad 25 569 29 490 26 078 32 705 Arendal 46 603 48 367 43 165 53 323 Kristiansand 119 287 141 421 125 261 156 319 Lindesnes 23 702 24 200 21 469 26 839 Farsund 9 949 9 697 8 438 11 001 Flekkefjord 9 373 9 173 8 083 10 228 Gjerstad 2 502 2 473 2 199 2 744 Vegårshei 2 253 2 648 2 287 3 028 Tvedestrand 6 430 7 244 6 476 7 974 Froland 6 299 7 397 6 630 8 067 Lillesand 11 822 13 449 11 960 14 845 Birkenes 5 447 6 022 5 330 6 672 Åmli 1 805 1 884 1 687 2 070 Iveland 1 386 1 619 1 431 1 794 Evje og Hornnes 3 842 4 116 3 558 4 712 Bygland 1 167 1 285 1 134 1 436 Valle 1 209 1 202 1 049 1 354 Bykle 1 057 1 469 1 281 1 668 Vennesla 15 772 17 599 15 646 19 391 Åseral 904 831 738 924 Lyngdal 10 922 11 316 9 811 12 842 Hægebostad 1 794 1 748 1 550 1 932 Kvinesdal 6 242 6 268 5 449 7 104 Sirdal 1 911 2 049 1 793 2 296 Eigersund 15 546 15 503 13 756 17 167 Stavanger 151 669 168 175 146 677 189 967 Haugesund 38 663 41 237 36 393 46 004 Sandnes 85 785 95 891 84 697 106 530 Sokndal 3 356 3 076 2 730 3 404 Lund 3 229 3 204 2 820 3 590 Bjerkreim 2 894 3 041 2 698 3 361 Hå 20 087 21 486 18 799 24 101 Klepp 21 444 25 646 22 751 28 278 Time 20 461 23 793 21 177 26 135 Gjesdal 12 715 14 128 12 482 15 662 Sola 29 541 34 724 30 402 38 936 Randaberg 11 841 13 856 12 182 15 432 Strand 13 959 15 043 13 325 16 633 Hjelmeland 2 612 2 738 2 395 3 094 Suldal 3 891 3 633 3 181 4 092 Sauda 4 603 4 279 3 753 4 807 Kvitsøy 579 757 680 827 Bokn 907 990 887 1 088 Tysvær 11 750 12 841 11 375 14 173 Karmøy 43 990 45 250 40 302 49 682 Utsira 219 315 275 358 Vindafjord 9 181 9 571 8 447 10 667 Bergen 294 860 325 773 288 722 361 617 Kinn 17 356 16 556 14 410 18 760 Etne 4 115 3 869 3 453 4 264 Sveio 5 766 6 066 5 413 6 680 Bømlo 12 531 12 619 11 126 14 054 Stord 19 276 19 210 16 917 21 467 Fitjar 3 237 3 196 2 850 3 509 Tysnes 3 053 3 250 2 899 3 586 Kvinnherad 13 236 12 240 10 932 13 456 Ullensvang 10 929 10 020 8 668 11 481 Eidfjord 985 1 014 876 1 157 Ulvik 1 114 1 203 1 058 1 345 Voss 16 438 16 931 14 918 18 893 Kvam 8 490 7 803 6 931 8 637 Samnanger 2 489 2 472 2 210 2 724 Bjørnafjorden 26 753 30 496 27 206 33 470 Austevoll 5 515 5 548 4 877 6 212 Øygarden 40 641 45 069 40 262 49 481 Askøy 30 600 32 727 29 281 35 774 Vaksdal 3 899 3 815 3 372 4 257 Modalen 397 415 367 460 Osterøy 8 231 8 293 7 433 9 086 Alver 30 285 31 484 28 211 34 509 Austrheim 2 947 3 322 2 970 3 645 Fedje 529 627 554 702 Masfjorden 1 672 1 666 1 469 1 861 Gulen 2 301 2 386 2 092 2 686 Solund 742 769 671 872 Hyllestad 1 275 1 299 1 131 1 479 Høyanger 3 883 3 455 3 040 3 879 Vik 2 532 2 182 1 926 2 435 Sogndal 12 552 14 269 12 437 16 074 Aurland 1 866 2 420 2 040 2 844 Lærdal 2 223 2 323 2 016 2 634 Årdal 5 178 4 378 3 879 4 876 Luster 5 478 5 437 4 783 6 090 Askvoll 2 924 2 726 2 383 3 075 Fjaler 2 948 3 235 2 701 3 832 Sunnfjord 22 804 22 911 20 253 25 411 Bremanger 3 381 2 904 2 560 3 250 Stad 9 616 9 600 8 435 10 732 Gloppen 5 976 5 735 5 031 6 439 Stryn 7 319 7 387 6 398 8 436 Kristiansund 24 479 23 956 21 284 26 573 Molde 33 291 34 575 30 477 38 588 Ålesund 59 663 62 858 55 517 69 930 Vanylven 3 029 2 568 2 270 2 866 Sande 2 437 2 323 2 029 2 633 Herøy (Møre og Romsdal) 9 003 8 250 7 281 9 209 Ulstein 8 958 9 375 8 131 10 658 Hareid 5 411 5 648 4 860 6 479 Ørsta 11 068 10 441 9 276 11 551 Stranda 4 333 4 366 3 814 4 950 Sykkylven 7 626 7 014 6 199 7 820 Sula 9 798 10 646 9 464 11 725 Giske 8 828 9 505 8 420 10 503 Vestnes 7 315 7 356 6 470 8 239 Rauma 7 195 7 059 6 166 7 981 Aukra 3 780 4 383 3 829 4 930 Averøy 6 007 6 185 5 457 6 911 Gjemnes 2 740 2 913 2 536 3 292 Tingvoll 3 066 3 197 2 782 3 643 Sunndal 7 094 6 520 5 635 7 488 Surnadal 5 982 5 367 4 737 5 994 Smøla 2 141 2 168 1 886 2 463 Aure 3 371 3 225 2 835 3 622 Volda 11 009 12 252 10 711 13 748 Fjord 2 547 2 629 2 310 2 936 Hustadvika 13 538 13 443 11 969 14 812 Haram 9 460 9 765 8 682 10 791 Trondheim - Tråante 218 460 253 196 223 692 282 091 Steinkjer - Stïentje 24 007 22 553 19 855 25 206 Namsos - Nåavmesjenjaelmie 15 112 14 451 12 710 16 150 Frøya 5 794 7 388 6 302 8 565 Osen 911 904 799 1 007 Oppdal 7 421 7 430 6 486 8 396 Rennebu 2 514 2 473 2 182 2 756 Røros - Rosse 5 638 5 834 5 145 6 519 Holtålen 2 037 1 854 1 641 2 061 Midtre Gauldal 6 088 5 874 5 188 6 543 Melhus 17 828 19 817 17 582 21 872 Skaun 8 574 9 625 8 611 10 525 Malvik 14 961 17 041 15 016 18 950 Selbu 4 258 4 432 3 989 4 839 Tydal 773 766 687 846 Meråker 2 460 2 653 2 338 2 977 Stjørdal 25 108 26 147 23 314 28 799 Frosta 2 667 2 991 2 632 3 349 Levanger - Levangke 20 807 21 387 18 903 23 755 Verdal 15 435 15 188 13 537 16 725 Snåase - Snåsa 2 141 2 188 1 839 2 569 Lierne 1 302 1 175 1 020 1 340 Raarvihke - Røyrvik 439 471 412 532 Namsskogan 803 953 822 1 092 Grong 2 292 2 250 1 955 2 561 Høylandet 1 230 1 078 935 1 225 Overhalla 3 944 3 981 3 484 4 468 Flatanger 1 110 1 239 1 081 1 400 Leka 596 673 587 760 Inderøy 7 066 7 401 6 568 8 172 Indre Fosen 10 006 9 484 8 402 10 549 Heim 6 075 5 819 5 050 6 630 Hitra 5 568 6 677 5 799 7 587 Ørland 10 706 11 487 10 166 12 727 Åfjord 4 340 4 184 3 686 4 667 Orkland 18 840 19 230 17 151 21 194 Nærøysund 9 920 9 639 8 464 10 798 Rindal 1 935 1 620 1 455 1 771 Bodø 53 638 54 358 47 726 60 966 Narvik 21 647 19 754 17 348 22 179 Bindal 1 361 1 219 1 081 1 360 Sømna 2 006 1 911 1 677 2 138 Brønnøy 7 841 7 236 6 422 8 018 Vega 1 202 1 165 1 017 1 317 Vevelstad 477 466 409 523 Herøy (Nordland) 1 874 1 933 1 659 2 235 Alstahaug 7 489 7 212 6 307 8 143 Leirfjord 2 392 2 475 2 152 2 817 Vefsn 13 481 12 394 10 959 13 791 Grane 1 415 1 384 1 202 1 571 Aarborte - Hattfjelldal 1 255 1 037 900 1 182 Dønna 1 445 1 395 1 203 1 605 Nesna 1 796 2 231 1 863 2 651 Hemnes 4 486 4 212 3 719 4 704 Rana - Raane 25 844 23 285 20 747 25 696 Lurøy 1 953 2 071 1 809 2 341 Træna 443 567 484 659 Rødøy 1 140 1 010 897 1 119 Meløy 6 074 5 202 4 596 5 809 Gildeskål 2 024 2 290 1 996 2 601 Beiarn 1 032 980 855 1 111 Saltdal 4 865 4 611 3 946 5 341 Fauske - Fuosko 9 707 9 099 7 974 10 253 Sørfold - Fuolldá 1 819 1 704 1 497 1 911 Steigen 2 679 2 880 2 510 3 261 Lødingen 1 964 2 065 1 756 2 423 Evenes - Evenássi 1 397 1 562 1 380 1 748 Røst 471 455 405 503 Værøy 656 635 554 721 Flakstad 1 235 1 391 1 198 1 604 Vestvågøy 11 606 11 387 9 953 12 808 Vågan 9 905 10 289 8 891 11 777 Hadsel 8 374 8 214 7 195 9 256 Bø 2 609 2 576 2 268 2 892 Øksnes 4 613 4 411 3 811 5 059 Sortland - Suortá 10 748 10 485 9 177 11 807 Andøy 4 525 4 162 3 622 4 731 Moskenes 976 1 213 1 043 1 403 Hábmer - Hamarøy 2 808 2 930 2 542 3 339 Tromsø 79 943 85 379 74 771 96 138 Harstad - Hárstták 25 204 24 232 21 414 27 002 Kvæfjord 2 901 3 236 2 794 3 704 Dielddanuorri - Tjeldsund 4 144 4 188 3 684 4 707 Ibestad 1 287 1 252 1 102 1 408 Gratangen - Rivtták 1 062 1 192 1 047 1 346 Loabák - Lavangen 1 002 841 735 950 Bardu 4 004 4 379 3 790 4 987 Salangen 2 132 2 055 1 763 2 377 Målselv 6 819 7 230 6 285 8 198 Sørreisa 3 528 3 495 3 049 3 955 Dyrøy 1 077 1 027 904 1 152 Senja 14 946 14 495 12 661 16 394 Balsfjord 5 625 5 621 4 948 6 302 Karlsøy 2 235 2 530 2 225 2 847 Lyngen - Ivgu - Yykeä 2 732 2 564 2 259 2 873 Storfjord - Omasvuotna - Omasvuono 1 848 1 802 1 589 2 017 Gáivuotna - Kåfjord - Kaivuono 1 939 1 758 1 551 1 963 Skjervøy 2 802 2 699 2 318 3 106 Nordreisa - Ráisa - Raisi 4 863 4 789 4 132 5 478 Kvænangen 1 125 1 201 1 062 1 341 Alta 22 074 23 328 20 376 26 201 Hammerfest - Hámmerfeasta 11 391 11 106 9 673 12 609 Sør-Varanger 9 947 9 972 8 681 11 345 Vadsø 5 808 5 600 4 797 6 484 Kárásjohka - Karasjok 2 524 2 315 2 052 2 569 Guovdageaidnu - Kautokeino 2 886 2 624 2 308 2 926 Loppa 846 1 158 994 1 338 Hasvik 987 1 166 1 013 1 329 Måsøy 1 089 1 312 1 140 1 499 Nordkapp 2 945 2 893 2 517 3 288 Porsanger - Porsángu - Porsanki 3 906 3 705 3 296 4 098 Lebesby 1 249 1 345 1 166 1 540 Gamvik 1 019 1 228 1 046 1 436 Deatnu - Tana 2 806 2 788 2 449 3 136 Berlevåg 864 910 790 1 041 Båtsfjord 2 104 2 043 1 739 2 381 Vardø 1 969 2 152 1 857 2 478 Unjárga - Nesseby 874 899 795 1 002 Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ... - Projected numbers of births and deaths, net immigration and domestic net migrationDownload table as ...Projected numbers of births and deaths, net immigration and domestic net migration
Main alternative (MMMM) 2049 2050 Births Deaths Net immigration Net migration, domestic Births Deaths Net immigration Net migration, domestic Halden 267 400 53 153 264 403 54 154 Moss 467 661 148 303 464 668 146 302 Sarpsborg 600 689 76 221 598 695 75 217 Fredrikstad 754 1 060 134 466 750 1 070 132 463 Hvaler 30 91 7 84 29 93 7 85 Råde 76 98 58 6 76 100 58 5 Våler (Østfold) 73 68 9 43 73 70 9 42 Skiptvet 38 48 3 32 38 49 3 31 Indre Østfold 446 569 97 251 445 575 95 249 Rakkestad 80 109 9 49 78 109 8 50 Marker 29 51 2 36 30 53 2 36 Aremark 13 21 2 9 11 20 2 10 Bærum 1 312 1 374 225 331 1 302 1 393 220 323 Asker 920 1 087 182 426 913 1 102 179 417 Lillestrøm 1 059 953 196 267 1 053 970 193 257 Nordre Follo 681 663 98 207 676 672 96 196 Ullensaker 523 455 130 182 520 465 127 175 Nesodden 182 243 31 133 180 246 30 131 Frogn 130 220 44 115 128 223 44 114 Vestby 194 221 35 128 194 224 35 125 Ås 279 210 87 -6 278 213 85 -10 Enebakk 107 127 19 54 106 129 18 53 Lørenskog 678 513 114 117 674 523 112 109 Rælingen 248 197 53 20 246 200 53 16 Aurskog-Høland 157 226 23 143 157 229 22 142 Nes 246 294 32 167 245 297 31 165 Gjerdrum 71 88 13 74 70 89 14 72 Nittedal 253 257 59 109 251 262 57 105 Lunner 79 117 22 41 78 117 21 41 Jevnaker 65 88 15 46 64 88 15 45 Nannestad 206 164 28 96 206 168 28 92 Eidsvoll 318 313 49 131 316 317 48 129 Hurdal 29 40 17 14 30 41 16 15 Oslo - Oslove 9 915 5 897 2 625 -4 168 9 844 5 974 2 594 -4 095 Drammen 1 025 1 118 268 188 1 018 1 128 266 187 Kongsberg 251 326 128 50 250 328 127 49 Ringerike 277 398 96 148 276 401 95 148 Hole 63 91 17 47 63 91 16 47 Lier 278 311 103 98 276 315 102 95 Øvre Eiker 220 249 40 137 218 252 40 135 Modum 130 190 49 63 128 190 49 63 Krødsherad 16 32 15 5 16 32 15 5 Flå 10 15 9 0 9 15 10 0 Nesbyen 19 44 11 4 20 45 12 4 Gol 42 59 41 -9 42 61 41 -9 Hemsedal 28 29 38 -19 28 30 38 -19 Ål 43 65 71 -50 41 64 70 -49 Hol 36 61 42 -10 35 61 43 -10 Sigdal 24 47 11 14 24 46 11 13 Flesberg 25 37 9 17 25 37 9 18 Rollag 10 20 7 2 10 20 7 1 Nore og Uvdal 17 34 16 -2 16 35 17 -2 Kongsvinger 131 240 49 65 130 240 48 65 Hamar 308 407 68 135 306 408 69 132 Lillehammer 298 333 43 54 295 333 41 52 Gjøvik 273 361 89 51 271 362 87 52 Ringsaker 314 442 71 121 313 445 71 120 Løten 67 99 9 34 66 99 10 33 Stange 204 265 37 81 202 264 36 79 Nord-Odal 32 75 3 36 32 74 3 36 Sør-Odal 60 113 8 63 61 114 6 63 Eidskog 39 96 7 48 40 97 6 49 Grue 31 70 8 31 31 70 8 30 Åsnes 45 109 27 34 44 109 27 34 Våler (Innlandet) 23 58 12 19 22 58 12 20 Elverum 190 257 40 40 188 257 39 41 Trysil 40 87 34 7 39 87 34 7 Åmot 42 54 9 11 42 53 8 10 Stor-Elvdal 17 37 17 5 17 37 17 5 Rendalen 12 31 11 11 12 30 10 11 Engerdal 10 20 34 -20 9 21 35 -20 Tolga 11 21 9 -3 12 21 8 -3 Tynset 49 69 24 -12 48 70 24 -11 Alvdal 18 32 10 0 17 32 10 0 Folldal 10 22 5 6 10 22 5 7 Os 13 26 5 6 14 26 4 6 Dovre 18 36 13 0 17 35 12 1 Lesja 12 27 5 3 12 26 4 3 Skjåk 13 30 5 5 13 29 4 4 Lom 16 31 7 -3 16 30 6 -3 Vågå 25 45 6 -1 24 44 6 -2 Nord-Fron 36 71 21 1 35 70 21 1 Sel 38 73 42 -25 38 72 41 -25 Sør-Fron 23 40 22 -6 23 40 23 -7 Ringebu 33 56 33 -19 34 56 31 -18 Øyer 41 64 19 9 40 64 19 9 Gausdal 43 78 3 26 43 79 2 27 Østre Toten 119 189 39 29 118 190 39 31 Vestre Toten 116 163 15 56 114 163 15 57 Gran 92 185 28 84 92 186 28 83 Søndre Land 38 82 21 27 39 83 21 27 Nordre Land 41 91 18 22 41 92 17 23 Sør-Aurdal 20 41 4 12 20 40 4 12 Etnedal 14 22 35 -32 14 23 36 -32 Nord-Aurdal 50 83 26 0 50 84 26 1 Vestre Slidre 19 29 6 3 19 29 7 1 Øystre Slidre 26 43 17 0 26 44 18 0 Vang 14 22 35 -23 15 21 34 -24 Horten 221 348 88 99 219 351 87 100 Holmestrand 266 343 61 192 266 348 61 189 Tønsberg 558 705 140 216 553 712 139 215 Sandefjord 562 794 182 253 559 801 179 250 Larvik 386 626 97 243 383 628 95 241 Færder 202 368 65 162 201 370 63 161 Porsgrunn 307 442 130 69 307 445 128 68 Skien 474 668 115 147 470 672 115 146 Notodden 108 168 49 9 108 169 48 10 Siljan 23 29 0 11 23 30 1 11 Bamble 109 180 22 48 107 181 23 47 Kragerø 65 144 27 45 64 144 26 46 Drangedal 27 54 14 5 26 53 13 6 Nome 49 86 40 -4 49 87 41 -5 Midt-Telemark 110 123 60 -5 109 124 60 -6 Seljord 22 37 13 0 21 38 14 1 Hjartdal 13 21 11 -6 11 20 10 -5 Tinn 33 78 30 3 32 78 30 4 Kviteseid 17 34 7 8 17 35 8 8 Nissedal 10 22 8 3 10 23 9 3 Fyresdal 8 18 7 1 10 17 6 0 Tokke 17 30 8 2 17 31 9 2 Vinje 34 47 22 -7 34 49 22 -6 Risør 42 94 29 25 42 94 28 25 Grimstad 263 263 67 36 260 265 67 35 Arendal 353 558 111 128 350 561 111 128 Kristiansand 1 379 1 208 209 191 1 370 1 223 207 182 Lindesnes 192 280 75 30 191 282 75 30 Farsund 79 117 71 -44 79 118 71 -42 Flekkefjord 79 108 32 -15 79 109 32 -14 Gjerstad 18 32 11 1 18 33 11 1 Vegårshei 22 28 24 -10 22 28 23 -10 Tvedestrand 53 90 15 42 53 89 14 40 Froland 64 70 1 32 65 71 1 31 Lillesand 110 142 27 46 108 142 27 45 Birkenes 55 53 16 -1 55 54 16 -2 Åmli 14 25 3 8 13 25 4 7 Iveland 15 16 4 4 14 16 4 4 Evje og Hornnes 35 44 38 -20 35 44 38 -20 Bygland 10 17 5 4 9 17 5 5 Valle 11 16 5 -2 11 15 6 -3 Bykle 12 12 10 0 12 14 11 0 Vennesla 168 165 32 6 168 168 33 4 Åseral 6 12 3 -1 5 12 4 -1 Lyngdal 104 113 78 -66 102 114 78 -64 Hægebostad 15 18 3 -3 15 19 4 -2 Kvinesdal 51 72 43 -30 51 74 43 -29 Sirdal 18 20 8 -4 17 21 8 -4 Eigersund 131 173 49 -20 130 173 48 -20 Stavanger 1 599 1 496 617 -432 1 585 1 516 614 -424 Haugesund 353 429 152 -44 351 433 151 -42 Sandnes 926 819 207 -75 918 832 205 -72 Sokndal 26 41 9 -3 25 40 8 -3 Lund 26 40 17 -6 27 40 17 -6 Bjerkreim 25 33 8 2 26 33 7 2 Hå 216 193 95 -80 214 196 95 -80 Klepp 255 203 30 18 254 206 30 15 Time 237 201 24 14 235 203 24 13 Gjesdal 132 122 34 -11 130 124 34 -10 Sola 341 276 96 -57 339 282 95 -57 Randaberg 136 119 37 -6 134 122 38 -6 Strand 145 142 34 -10 143 145 34 -8 Hjelmeland 21 32 19 -3 21 32 19 -4 Suldal 28 47 22 -8 28 47 21 -9 Sauda 33 55 23 -13 33 54 22 -13 Kvitsøy 6 8 0 7 5 8 1 7 Bokn 8 12 2 3 8 12 3 2 Tysvær 122 121 26 -7 120 121 27 -8 Karmøy 432 458 74 -68 429 460 73 -67 Utsira 2 4 3 1 2 4 2 2 Vindafjord 82 104 38 -17 81 105 38 -17 Bergen 3 219 2 810 643 -453 3 192 2 839 636 -442 Kinn 135 204 110 -85 134 204 109 -84 Etne 29 48 9 0 29 48 9 1 Sveio 48 68 15 9 47 69 15 10 Bømlo 101 136 52 -29 101 136 51 -29 Stord 159 196 86 -60 157 198 86 -58 Fitjar 25 39 4 3 25 38 3 3 Tysnes 23 42 9 12 23 42 8 13 Kvinnherad 96 158 29 -9 94 157 28 -7 Ullensvang 78 133 93 -69 77 133 93 -68 Eidfjord 9 13 7 -4 8 13 7 -3 Ulvik 8 15 5 4 9 15 4 3 Voss 147 188 67 -12 144 187 67 -13 Kvam 59 101 24 2 57 99 23 3 Samnanger 19 32 6 7 18 33 8 7 Bjørnafjorden 280 282 34 57 277 284 33 56 Austevoll 46 59 25 -14 45 58 24 -13 Øygarden 383 438 82 72 380 445 82 71 Askøy 296 299 30 27 294 302 30 25 Vaksdal 27 49 19 -3 27 48 18 -3 Modalen 3 5 1 2 2 5 2 1 Osterøy 67 93 14 8 66 93 14 9 Alver 247 342 59 60 243 343 60 60 Austrheim 26 36 6 11 25 36 5 12 Fedje 4 9 4 2 4 8 3 3 Masfjorden 12 22 7 2 11 22 8 2 Gulen 19 31 14 -5 18 29 13 -5 Solund 6 12 6 0 5 11 5 0 Hyllestad 8 17 11 -2 9 18 10 -2 Høyanger 23 52 20 -10 23 51 19 -9 Vik 16 33 9 -2 16 32 9 -3 Sogndal 144 124 72 -63 144 125 71 -64 Aurland 22 23 29 -19 22 23 28 -18 Lærdal 19 29 14 -7 20 29 13 -7 Årdal 32 63 19 -13 32 64 19 -11 Luster 42 64 26 -12 42 64 26 -13 Askvoll 18 39 15 -2 19 40 15 -2 Fjaler 33 32 50 -47 32 32 50 -47 Sunnfjord 219 237 71 -75 217 239 71 -74 Bremanger 20 43 13 -6 20 43 14 -7 Stad 79 113 34 -11 80 114 35 -12 Gloppen 44 69 29 -16 44 69 29 -16 Stryn 58 81 57 -38 58 81 57 -38 Kristiansund 186 295 73 5 183 293 71 7 Molde 303 381 110 -39 300 383 109 -37 Ålesund 564 615 130 -55 559 617 129 -54 Vanylven 16 43 9 4 15 43 10 3 Sande 16 31 15 -5 15 32 16 -5 Herøy (Møre og Romsdal) 64 104 30 -20 63 103 30 -20 Ulstein 79 97 61 -44 80 98 59 -44 Hareid 43 61 46 -33 43 62 46 -32 Ørsta 87 124 28 -12 86 124 27 -11 Stranda 32 50 27 -10 33 51 26 -10 Sykkylven 49 90 25 -7 48 90 24 -7 Sula 94 96 10 13 95 98 9 13 Giske 87 91 12 4 86 91 12 4 Vestnes 55 93 29 -1 54 94 30 0 Rauma 56 84 41 -21 55 83 41 -22 Aukra 39 40 17 -2 38 40 18 -3 Averøy 45 76 26 4 46 77 25 4 Gjemnes 25 33 17 -5 24 32 17 -6 Tingvoll 22 40 29 -9 22 40 28 -9 Sunndal 48 90 66 -47 49 90 65 -47 Surnadal 42 76 23 -11 41 75 23 -11 Smøla 18 30 14 -4 18 30 13 -3 Aure 24 45 16 -2 23 46 16 -1 Volda 129 114 47 -38 128 114 46 -39 Fjord 21 34 7 2 20 34 7 2 Hustadvika 111 154 17 11 112 154 16 11 Haram 78 112 18 12 78 111 18 11 Trondheim - Tråante 2 432 2 010 585 -230 2 414 2 030 578 -230 Steinkjer - Stïentje 187 289 98 -46 186 288 97 -44 Namsos - Nåavmesjenjaelmie 132 177 62 -45 131 177 62 -44 Frøya 64 65 68 -38 64 67 68 -38 Osen 5 14 4 4 6 14 3 4 Oppdal 56 88 45 -14 56 88 45 -15 Rennebu 20 34 9 1 20 33 8 2 Røros - Rosse 45 77 23 11 44 78 22 12 Holtålen 14 27 7 1 14 28 6 2 Midtre Gauldal 50 71 20 -4 50 72 19 -3 Melhus 181 187 38 21 179 188 37 20 Skaun 87 83 4 22 87 85 5 20 Malvik 149 143 43 5 149 146 42 4 Selbu 33 54 2 21 32 55 4 21 Tydal 5 13 3 5 5 13 3 4 Meråker 19 33 15 2 18 33 16 3 Stjørdal 209 282 63 36 208 284 61 36 Frosta 22 38 13 9 21 38 14 9 Levanger - Levangke 189 233 68 -26 187 233 68 -26 Verdal 127 178 29 8 127 178 29 9 Snåase - Snåsa 18 28 29 -24 17 28 28 -23 Lierne 7 18 10 -4 8 18 10 -5 Raarvihke - Røyrvik 3 7 3 1 4 6 2 0 Namsskogan 7 12 8 1 7 13 8 1 Grong 18 29 18 -9 18 28 17 -10 Høylandet 8 14 7 -6 8 14 7 -5 Overhalla 35 42 18 -14 36 43 18 -14 Flatanger 10 18 7 1 10 17 6 2 Leka 5 9 4 2 5 9 4 1 Inderøy 60 86 11 13 60 87 11 13 Indre Fosen 69 126 36 3 69 127 37 3 Heim 46 76 45 -23 45 77 45 -23 Hitra 57 64 40 -11 58 65 39 -11 Ørland 105 124 26 5 105 125 25 5 Åfjord 36 56 13 2 35 55 14 2 Orkland 152 231 42 47 150 231 41 49 Nærøysund 85 111 45 -33 84 110 45 -33 Rindal 12 23 1 1 12 24 2 1 Bodø 511 544 200 -186 508 548 200 -187 Narvik 161 261 74 -53 159 260 74 -52 Bindal 7 20 4 4 7 21 5 5 Sømna 14 25 5 -1 15 25 5 -1 Brønnøy 58 92 17 -9 58 92 16 -9 Vega 8 18 6 1 8 17 6 1 Vevelstad 3 6 1 1 4 7 2 1 Herøy (Nordland) 14 25 20 -9 13 25 19 -8 Alstahaug 59 89 40 -28 59 89 40 -28 Leirfjord 18 30 18 -7 19 31 18 -7 Vefsn 105 157 37 -29 103 158 38 -29 Grane 11 19 8 -2 10 19 7 -1 Aarborte - Hattfjelldal 7 17 8 -4 7 17 8 -3 Dønna 10 21 13 -6 10 20 13 -6 Nesna 17 23 36 -25 16 23 36 -25 Hemnes 32 54 17 -5 33 54 16 -5 Rana - Raane 191 297 46 -41 190 297 46 -39 Lurøy 16 24 11 -2 16 24 11 -2 Træna 5 5 6 -4 5 5 6 -4 Rødøy 6 15 2 2 7 15 2 2 Meløy 39 74 20 -14 39 74 19 -13 Gildeskål 17 33 14 5 16 33 15 6 Beiarn 6 15 5 1 6 15 6 1 Saltdal 31 61 50 -32 30 62 50 -31 Fauske - Fuosko 69 120 52 -28 69 121 52 -28 Sørfold - Fuolldá 13 25 5 3 13 24 6 1 Steigen 23 37 14 1 21 36 14 2 Lødingen 14 30 30 -15 14 30 30 -15 Evenes - Evenássi 10 19 6 4 11 19 6 3 Røst 3 7 0 1 3 7 1 1 Værøy 4 9 5 -1 4 8 4 -1 Flakstad 10 18 13 -5 11 17 12 -5 Vestvågøy 104 131 41 -31 103 131 41 -31 Vågan 87 114 76 -50 87 115 76 -51 Hadsel 63 100 43 -20 64 100 42 -20 Bø 16 38 12 7 17 38 12 6 Øksnes 32 54 36 -25 32 55 36 -24 Sortland - Suortá 86 119 49 -31 85 120 48 -30 Andøy 32 57 27 -16 32 56 26 -16 Moskenes 10 14 11 -4 9 13 12 -4 Hábmer - Hamarøy 22 39 20 -6 22 40 20 -5 Tromsø 831 759 289 -335 824 765 288 -333 Harstad - Hárstták 205 282 86 -70 204 283 87 -69 Kvæfjord 26 39 29 -17 24 39 29 -16 Dielddanuorri - Tjeldsund 29 58 23 1 30 59 22 1 Ibestad 8 20 7 3 8 20 7 3 Gratangen - Rivtták 7 17 8 2 7 17 9 1 Loabák - Lavangen 6 13 4 -2 5 13 5 -2 Bardu 45 39 31 -36 46 39 31 -37 Salangen 15 28 28 -21 15 28 27 -20 Målselv 69 75 44 -42 69 74 43 -42 Sørreisa 28 40 21 -17 29 40 21 -17 Dyrøy 6 16 4 3 6 17 4 4 Senja 110 179 85 -43 109 180 85 -42 Balsfjord 42 73 22 4 42 73 22 4 Karlsøy 15 34 13 11 15 35 12 12 Lyngen - Ivgu - Yykeä 18 38 11 3 18 38 11 2 Storfjord - Omasvuotna - Omasvuono 12 25 7 2 12 26 8 3 Gáivuotna - Kåfjord - Kaivuono 12 29 6 6 12 28 6 5 Skjervøy 22 31 23 -19 22 31 24 -20 Nordreisa - Ráisa - Raisi 39 60 38 -26 38 60 39 -26 Kvænangen 7 18 5 8 8 18 4 7 Alta 244 214 93 -115 241 215 92 -115 Hammerfest - Hámmerfeasta 101 121 72 -70 102 122 72 -70 Sør-Varanger 86 116 74 -58 84 117 75 -56 Vadsø 49 67 65 -64 48 67 66 -65 Kárásjohka - Karasjok 18 33 3 2 16 33 4 2 Guovdageaidnu - Kautokeino 23 34 6 -6 22 33 6 -6 Loppa 8 13 11 1 9 13 11 0 Hasvik 8 13 9 -1 8 13 8 0 Måsøy 8 16 11 2 8 16 11 2 Nordkapp 22 38 19 -9 22 38 18 -9 Porsanger - Porsángu - Porsanki 26 53 6 9 27 54 5 9 Lebesby 10 18 12 -3 10 17 11 -3 Gamvik 8 15 16 -5 8 15 16 -4 Deatnu - Tana 21 38 14 0 21 37 13 -1 Berlevåg 7 13 8 -1 7 12 7 -2 Båtsfjord 17 24 23 -21 17 25 23 -20 Vardø 16 30 21 -7 16 29 20 -6 Unjárga - Nesseby 6 12 3 3 6 12 3 2 Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ...
About the statistics
The information under «About the statistics» was last updated 4 July 2022.
A population projection is an estimate of the future size and composition of a population, typically given certain assumptions of future fertility, life expectancy, domestic migration, immigration and emigration.
To demonstrate that population projections are uncertain, Statistics Norway publishes several projection alternatives. The MMMM alternative which assumes the medium level for each component is what we assume to be most plausible at the time of projection.
The variables and terms used in the population projections are described in the projections' report.
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Name: Regional population projections
Topic: Population
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Research department, Unit for Public Economics and Demographic Models
The lowest regional levels for the population projections are municipalities.
The population projections are published biennially.
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The population projections utilize aggregated individual level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. The results from the projections are stored in the StatBank at Statistics Norway and as separate files. Aggregated data may be downloaded electronically from the StatBank.
The population projections aim at informing planning and public debate on population issues.
SSB has produced population projections regularly since the 1950s. Previous population projections can be found here, and in the StatBank.
The most important users of Statistics Norway's population projections are public and private planning bodies at the municipal, county and central government levels, as well as journalists, researchers, politicians and the general public.
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To project the population, assumptions are needed on future fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration. After the assumptions are made, the Norwegian population is projected using the cohort component models BEFREG.
The methods used are further described in the projections' report.
The population projections utilize aggregated individual level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. We use data categorized by age, sex and place of residence for 1 January each year, in addition to figures on births, deaths, domestic migration, immigration and emigration by age, sex and municipality/city district.
No samples are used. The projections utilize the whole population in estimations.
The methods used in the population projections are further described in the projections' report.
See the projections' report.
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The regional population projections are not directly comparable across publications because of changes in methodology and regional borders.
There is a marked uncertainty about whether the assumptions used in making the population projections will accurately reflect future demographic trends. Over the past decade, future immigration has proven to be the most difficult component to project. This is also likely to be the case in the years ahead. Fertility, mortality and internal migration can also be very different from what was projected.
Models are simplifications of reality, and as such may only capture a few key mechanisms. This means that there are a multitude of other conditions that will affect population development which are not considered.
Errors in the population statistics system are usually modest in Norway and play a minor role in the projections
In summary, the uncertainty increases with time.
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- Befolkningsframskrivinger for kommunene, 2020-2050
- Empirical Bayes estimation of local demographic rates - An application using Norwegian registry data. Documents (2020/03)
- Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules: reducing small area problems and preserving regional variation
Contact
Henvendelser om regionale framskrivinger
regfram@ssb.noRelatert innhold
Analyses, articles and publications
Report / 12 June 2026Municipal population projections 2026According to the main projection alternative, Norway’s demographic development is expected to continue along well-established trajectories: the population will grow, urbanization persists, and the population is ageing.
Report / 5 June 2024Municipal population projections 2024The backdrop for this year’s population projections for Norwegian municipalities is substantial immigration, particularly from Ukraine. In the main scenario, the projections show especially strong population growth in the short term, but also growth in the longer term.
Document / 6 February 2020Empirical Bayes estimation of local demographic ratesLocal governments and businesses rely on regional population projections to make informed planning and policy decisions. A prerequisite for producing reliable regional projections is access to high quality demographic rates, also for small populations.
Discussion paper / 28 April 2021Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules: reducing small area problems and preserving regional variationReliable local demographic schedules are in high demand, but small area problems pose a challenge to estimation. The literature has directed little attention to the opportunities created by increased availability of high-quality geo-coded data.