Population projections


National population projections
Calculations of how the population in Norway will potentially develop over time
Regional population projections
Projects changes to the regional populations

Analyses, articles and publications

Showing 5 of 5
  1. Moving beyond expectations

    Population projections are predominantly made using the cohort-component method (CCM). The opportunities for further development within that framework are limited. Lately, with advances in technical and computational capacity, the microsimulation framework has become a serious contender.

  2. A probabilistic forecast of the immigrant population of Norway

    We present a probabilistic forecast for the immigrant population of Norway and their Norwegian-born children (“second generation”) broken down by age, sex, and three types of country background: 1. West European countries plus the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; 2. East European countries that are members of the European Union; 3. other countries.

  3. Norway’s 2022 national population projections

    The 2022 national population projections show lower population growth combined with stronger ageing. Nevertheless, there will still be population growth in Norway throughout the century, with the main alternative projecting an increase from around 5.4 million today, to 6.1 million in 2060 and 6.2 million in 2100.

  4. Municipal population projections 2022

    Population growth in central areas and strong aging in rural areas are the main results of the 2022 projections for the Norwegian municipalities. These are long-lasting trends of Norway’s demography that the model also projects into the future.

  5. Immigration will ensure population growth from 2050

    In the years ahead, lower population growth and an increasingly older population will characterise the population development in Norway. In less than 30 years, more people will die than are born each year, which means that immigration alone will ensure that the population continues to grow.

Older analyses, articles and publications for subtopic population projections.