In particular, many rural municipalities are expected to face a markedly high share of elderly residents in the coming decades. Despite the relatively high levels of immigration in recent years, including the settlement of large numbers of Ukrainian refugees across the country, these long-term demographic patterns remain remarkably persistent.
Under the main alternative, all counties except Nordland are projected to experience population growth toward 2050. The strongest growth is expected in the central eastern region of Norway, especially in Akershus and Oslo, where the population is projected to increase by 20 and 16 per cent, respectively. Most municipalities, 63 per cent, are expected to grow. Rising life expectancy combined with only modest increases in fertility will contribute to further population ageing across municipalities. By 2050, some municipalities are projected to have nearly one third of their population aged 70 years or older. This ageing process will also affect the birth surplus. By 2050, Oslo and Rogaland are expected to be the only counties with more births than deaths.
The projections are based on the population of each municipality as of 1 January 2026, disaggregated by age and sex, together with assumptions about future demographic behaviour. These assumptions specify how fertility, mortality, internal migration, immigration, and emigration are expected to develop over time at the municipal level. As with all population projections, the results are inherently uncertain because they rely on assumptions about future developments. Nevertheless, demographic trends are relatively predictable in the short term: most people will be one year older next year and continue living in the same location. Over longer time horizons, however, the projections depend increasingly on demographic assumptions, making the results more uncertain.
Unless otherwise stated, the analyses presented in this report are primarily based on what is referred to as the main projection alternative. This alternative is built on demographic assumptions that are considered the most plausible at the time the projections are produced. Chapter 1 presents the main results. This is followed by discussions and results related to the demographic components underlying the projections. The final chapter, Chapter 6, provides a more detailed description of the methodology and data.
Meaningful use of population projections requires a certain degree of methodological understanding. Users are encouraged to familiarize themselves with the model and to interpret the results critically. In some cases, adjustments based on local knowledge and contextual information may be appropriate, for example for planning purposes. To support such assessments, Statistics Norway has published a separate guide on the appropriate use of population projections, available at www.ssb.no/en/befolkning/befolkningsframskrivinger/statistikk/regionale-befolkningsframskrivinger.