National population projections

Updated: 5 June 2024

Next update: Not yet determined

Inhabitants expected in Norway in 2050 (main alternative) approx.
Inhabitants expected in Norway in 2050 (main alternative) approx.
Projected population figures 2024-2100
Projected population figures 2024-2100
Population (main alternative, MMM)5 550 2035 749 7126 146 3216 272 5906 243 256
Population (low alternative, LLL)5 550 2035 608 5995 411 8594 646 6703 656 408
Population (high alternative, HHH)5 550 2035 883 1556 857 3668 131 5809 624 982
Net migration (main alternative, MMM)41 09316 48213 27512 76013 195
Net migration (low alternative, MML)18 5549 0574 7043 1091 355
Net migration (high alternative, MMH)58 87923 74228 13633 57938 294
Fertility (main alternative, MMM)1.421.571.661.661.66
Fertility (low alternative, LMM)1.351.
Fertility (high alternative, HMM)1.481.861.911.911.91
Life expectancy (main alternative, MMM)83.384.387.490.492.8
Life expectancy (low alternative, MLM)83.083.585.487.589.2
Life expectancy (high alternative, MHM)83.685.
Explanation of symbols

Selected tables and charts from this statistics

  • Total population January 1. Registered 2022 and projected in three alternatives
    Total population January 1. Registered 2022 and projected in three alternatives
    Registered 20241 Projected alternative2
    Main alternative (MMM)Low national growth (LLL)High national growth (HHH)
    Population5 550 203
    20305 749 7125 608 5995 883 155
    20506 146 3215 411 8596 857 366
    20756 272 5904 646 6708 131 580
    21006 243 2563 656 4089 624 982
    1Total population registered per January 1 2024.
    2Refers to high and low national growth alternatives.
    Explanation of symbols
  • Population, registered and projected. 1980-2060

  • Fertility
    Registered 2023Projected alternative
    Main alternative (MMM)Low fertility (LMM)High fertility (HMM)
    Total fertility rate1.40
    Live births51 980
    203058 29945 31169 257
    205056 33540 56865 355
    207556 42232 94872 216
    210054 74227 99576 054
    Explanation of symbols
  • Projected fertility rate

  • Life expectancy
    Life expectancy
    Registered 2023Projected alternative1
    Medium life expectancyLow life expectancyHigh life expectancy
    Life expectancy at birth men81.39
    Life expectancy at birth women84.63
    Deaths43 803
    203047 77251 73343 975
    205060 25565 75655 360
    207565 86870 18862 324
    210068 96970 85667 636
    1Refers to high and low life expectancy alternatives.
    Explanation of symbols
  • Life expectancy 1980-2060

  • Immigration and emigration
    Immigration and emigration
    Registered 2023Projected alternative1 2
    Main alternative (MMM)Low immigration (MML)High immigration (MMH)
    Immigration86 589
    203049 16739 11459 054
    205044 20830 00966 358
    207540 58021 90977 077
    210039 48415 21487 934
    Emigration34 011
    203032 68530 05735 312
    205030 93325 30538 222
    207527 82018 80043 497
    210026 29013 85949 640
    Net migration52 578
    203016 4829 05723 742
    205013 2754 70428 136
    207512 7603 10933 579
    210013 1951 35538 294
    1Refers to high and low immigration alternatives.
    2Figures for net migration are rounded after subtracting number of emigrations from number of immigrations.
    Explanation of symbols
  • Net migration1980-2060

About the statistics

National population projections are calculations of how the population in Norway will potentially develop over time, given different assumptions about fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration.

The information under «About the statistics» was last updated 18 September 2023.

A population projection is an estimate of the future size and composition of a population, given certain assumptions of future fertility, life expectancy, immigration and emigration. The term projection is used for any estimate of the future population, including less likely ones. A prognosis or forecast is an estimate of the most probable future population size and composition.

Statistics Norway publishes several projections, but the MMM alternative, which assumes the medium level for each component, is what we assume to be most plausible.

The various alternatives and terms used in the population projections are described in the projections report (see link under 'Relevant documentation').

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Name: National population projections
Topic: Population

Not yet determined

Research department, Unit for population and public economics

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The national population projections are published biennially.

Statistics Norway reports projections to Eurostat and the United Nations, among others.

The population projections utilize aggregated individual-level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. The results from the projections are stored in the StatBank at Statistics Norway and as separate files. Aggregated data may be downloaded electronically from the StatBank.

The population projections aim at informing planning and public debate on population issues.

Statistics Norway has produced population projections regularly since the 1950s. Previous population projections can be found here, and in the StatBank.

The most important users of Statistics Norway's population projections are public and private planning bodies at the municipal, county and central government levels, as well as researchers, politicians, journalists and the general public. The projections are also used internally at Statistics Norway, for example as input in macroeconomic models.

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The population projections are published in accordance with international standards. The Norwegian figures are more detailed (immigration category, country group and period of residence) than what is commonly published in most other countries.

There are no specific rules regulating the population projections, but the production process of the projections is based in the Norwegian Statistics Act of 2019.

Although there is no separate EU regulation in this field, a collaboration exists between Norway and Eurostat. Eurostat produces population projections for the EU and Norway on a regular basis. These projections differ from those produced by Statistics Norway.

To project the population, assumptions are needed on future fertility, mortality and international migration. After the assumptions are made, the Norwegian population is projected using the cohort component model BEFINN.

The methods used are further described in the projections report (see link under 'Relevant documentation').

The population projections utilize aggregated individual-level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. We use data categorized by age, sex, immigrant background and country group of origin for 1 January each year, in addition to figures on births, deaths, immigration and emigration by age and sex.

No samples are used. The projections utilize the whole population in estimations.

The methods used in the population projections are described in detail in the projections report (see link under 'Relevant documentation').

No data are collected specifically for the purpose of making population projections.

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At a national level, previous versions of the population projections are comparable. Though country groups are not entirely comparable over time, since the definition and the number of groups have varied.

In comparing results from the population projections to the general population statistics at Statistics Norway, two main differences stand out:

  1. The projection models project the population from 1 January one year to 1 January the year after. This means that individuals who move between Norway and other countries several times during one year only contribute one move. Consequently, somewhat fewer migrations are used in the population projections compared to the numbers that are published in the general population statistics.
  2. The age definitions are not the same in the projections and the general population statistics. While the general population statistics use age at time of event (e.g. birth, death or migration), the projections use age at the end of the year. This means that the age-specific rates and probabilities used in the projections – as well as the life expectancy figures – may differ slightly from what is published in the population statistics.

There is marked uncertainty about whether the assumptions used in making the population projections will accurately reflect future demographic trends. Over the past decade, future immigration has proven to be the most difficult component to project. This is also likely to be the case in the years ahead. Fertility and mortality rates can also be very different to what is projected.

Models are simplifications of reality, and as such may only capture a few key mechanisms. There are a multitude of other conditions that will affect population development which are not considered.

Errors in the population statistics system are usually modest in Norway and play a minor role in the projections.

In general, uncertainty increases with time. For more information, see links under ‘Relevant documentation’.

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Key figure pages


Statistics Norway's Information Centre

(+47) 21 09 46 42

Inquiries about national projections

Ane Margrete Tømmerås

(+47) 91 99 29 62

Inquiries about regional projections