National population projections

Updated: 3 June 2020

Next update: Not yet determined

Inhabitants expected in Norway in 2060 (main alternative) approx.
Inhabitants expected in Norway in 2060 (main alternative) approx.
6.1
million

Selected tables and figures from this statistics

Total population January 1. Registered 2020 and projected in three alternatives
Total population January 1. Registered 2020 and projected in three alternatives
Registered 20201 Projected alternative2
Main alternative (MMM)Low alternative (LLL)High alternative (HHH)
Total population5 367 580
20255 500 0005 430 0005 570 000
20405 860 0005 470 0006 230 000
20606 070 0005 160 0007 080 000
21006 250 0004 020 0009 290 000
1Total population registered per January 1 2020.
2Refers to high and low national growth alternatives.
Explanation of symbols

Fertility
Fertility
Registered 2019Projected alternative1
Main alternative (MMM)Low alternative (LMM)High alternative (HMM)
Total fertility rate1.5
20251.51.31.7
20401.71.31.9
20601.71.31.9
21001.71.31.9
Live births54 495
202555 00048 00061 600
204060 40046 20067 500
206056 60038 10068 200
210057 40032 20074 400
1Refers to high and low fertility alternatives.
Explanation of symbols

Life expectancy
Life expectancy
Registered 2019Projected alternative1
Main alternative (MMM)Low alternative (MLM)High alternative (MHM)
Life expectancy at birth men81.2
202582.681.783.5
204085.683.787.3
206088.98691.3
210093.489.796.6
Life expectancy at birth women84.7
202585.784.986.4
204088.186.489.7
206090.988.493.2
210094.991.498
Deaths40 684
202542 10044 90039 400
204052 80057 30048 800
206061 60065 30058 300
210065 20066 30064 700
1Refers to high and low life expectancy alternatives.
Explanation of symbols

Immigration and emigration
Immigration and emigration
Registered 20191 Projected alternative2
Main alternative (MMM)Low alternative (MML)High alternative (MMH)
Immigration50 868
202543 50036 90051 200
204040 10032 20055 400
206037 20025 90064 600
210036 90018 30083 300
Emigration25 547
202529 80028 20031 800
204029 00026 20034 100
206026 70021 80038 400
210024 80015 20049 900
Net migration25 321
202513 7008 70019 300
204011 0006 00021 300
206010 5004 10026 300
210012 1003 10033 400
1The number of immigrations and emigrations is lower than in the official statistics, as only one migration per calendar year per person is used in the projections.
2Refers to high and low immigration alternatives.
Explanation of symbols


About the statistics

National population projections are calculations of how the population in Norway will potentially develop over time, given different assumptions about fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration.

A population projection is an estimate of the future size and composition of a population, given certain assumptions of future fertility, life expectancy, immigration and emigration. The term projection is used for any estimate of the future population, including less likely ones. A prognosis or forecast is an estimate of the most probable future population size and composition.

Statistics Norway publishes several projections, but the MMM alternative, which assumes the medium level for each component, is what we assume to be most plausible.

The various alternatives and terms used in the population projections are described in the projections report (see link under 'Relevant documentation').

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Name: National population projections

Topic: Population

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Research department, Unit for Social and Demographic Research

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The national population projections are published biennially.

Statistics Norway reports projections to Eurostat and the United Nations, among others.

The population projections utilize aggregated individual-level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. The results from the projections are stored in the StatBank at Statistics Norway and as separate files. Aggregated data may be downloaded electronically from the StatBank.

The population projections aim at informing planning and public debate on population issues.

Statistics Norway has produced population projections regularly since the 1950s. Previous population projections can be found here, and in the StatBank.

The most important users of Statistics Norway's population projections are public and private planning bodies at the municipal, county and central government levels, as well as researchers, politicians, journalists and the general public. The projections are also used internally at Statistics Norway, for example as input in macroeconomic models.

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The population projections are published in accordance with international standards. The Norwegian figures are more detailed (immigration category, country group and period of residence) than what is commonly published in most other countries.

There are no specific rules regulating the population projections, but the production process of the projections is based in the Norwegian Statistics Act of 2019.

Although there is no separate EU regulation in this field, a collaboration exists between Norway and Eurostat. Eurostat produces population projections for the EU and Norway on a regular basis. These projections differ from those produced by Statistics Norway.

To project the population, assumptions are needed on future fertility, mortality and international migration. After the assumptions are made, the Norwegian population is projected using the cohort component model BEFINN.

The methods used are further described in the projections report (see link under 'Relevant documentation').

The population projections utilize aggregated individual-level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. We use data categorized by age, sex, immigrant background and country group of origin for 1 January each year, in addition to figures on births, deaths, immigration and emigration by age and sex.

No samples are used. The projections utilize the whole population in estimations.

The methods used in the population projections are described in detail in the projections report (see link under 'Relevant documentation').

No data are collected specifically for the purpose of making population projections.

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At a national level, previous versions of the population projections are comparable. Though country groups are not entirely comparable over time, since the definition and the number of groups have varied.

In comparing results from the population projections to the general population statistics at Statistics Norway, two main differences stand out:

  1. The projection models project the population from 1 January one year to 1 January the year after. This means that individuals who move between Norway and other countries several times during one year only contribute one move. Consequently, somewhat fewer migrations are used in the population projections compared to the numbers that are published in the general population statistics.
  2. The age definitions are not the same in the projections and the general population statistics. While the general population statistics use age at time of event (e.g. birth, death or migration), the projections use age at the end of the year. This means that the age-specific rates and probabilities used in the projections – as well as the life expectancy figures – may differ slightly from what is published in the population statistics.

There is marked uncertainty about whether the assumptions used in making the population projections will accurately reflect future demographic trends. Over the past decade, future immigration has proven to be the most difficult component to project. This is also likely to be the case in the years ahead. Fertility and mortality rates can also be very different to what is projected.

Models are simplifications of reality, and as such may only capture a few key mechanisms. There are a multitude of other conditions that will affect population development which are not considered.

Errors in the population statistics system are usually modest in Norway and play a minor role in the projections.

In general, uncertainty increases with time. For more information, see links under ‘Relevant documentation’.

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Contact

Inquiries about national projections

nasjfram@ssb.no

Statistics Norway's Information Centre

informasjon@ssb.no

(+47) 21 09 46 42

Inquiries about regional projections

regfram@ssb.no