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Regional population projections
Regional population projections are calculations of how the population in Norway will potentially develop over time, given different assumptions about fertility, mortality, internal migration, immigration and emigration. Read about results, methods and assumptions in the relevant report (in Norwegian).
Updated: 5 June 2024
Next update: Not yet determined
Modified: The numbers for Haram og Ålesund municipality were corrected.
Selected figures from these statistics
- Population in counties, registered and projected (main alternative)Download table as ...Population in counties, registered and projected (main alternative)
2024 2050 Change in per cent Change in number of persons Østfold 312 152 355 556 13.9 43 404 Akershus 728 803 874 159 19.9 145 356 Oslo 717 710 817 225 13.9 99 515 Innlandet 376 304 395 404 5.1 19 100 Buskerud 269 819 304 611 12.9 34 792 Vestfold 256 432 286 521 11.7 30 089 Telemark 177 093 185 686 4.9 8 593 Agder 319 850 358 010 11.9 38 160 Rogaland 499 417 543 550 8.8 44 133 Vestland 651 299 691 788 6.2 40 489 Møre og Romsdal 270 624 279 339 3.2 8 715 Trøndelag - Trööndelage 482 956 529 458 9.6 46 502 Nordland - Nordlánnda 243 081 241 234 -0.8 -1 847 Troms - Romsa - Tromssa 169 610 175 548 3.5 5 938 Finnmark - Finnmárku - Finmarkku 75 053 76 810 2.3 1 757 The numbers for Haram og Ålesund municipality were corrected on the 13th of September 2024. Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ... - Population in the municipalities January 1. First year registered. Projected in three alternatives in 2050Download table as ...Population in the municipalities January 1. First year registered. Projected in three alternatives in 2050
Registered 2024 Projected 2050 Main alternative (MMMM) Low national growth (LLML) High national growth (HHMH) Halden 31 935 34 707 30 818 38 285 Moss 52 051 60 744 53 696 67 396 Sarpsborg 59 771 66 973 59 315 73 884 Fredrikstad 85 230 95 318 84 518 105 256 Hvaler 4 787 6 101 5 476 6 688 Råde 7 883 9 594 8 396 10 779 Våler (Østfold) 6 145 8 431 7 434 9 341 Skiptvet 3 919 4 740 4 205 5 224 Indre Østfold 47 006 54 053 47 793 59 896 Rakkestad 8 420 9 392 8 341 10 359 Marker 3 658 3 988 3 546 4 391 Aremark 1 347 1 515 1 345 1 671 Bærum 130 921 148 099 129 395 166 195 Oslo municipality 717 710 817 225 715 323 918 459 Asker 98 815 112 954 98 989 126 265 Lillestrøm 94 201 113 461 99 803 126 271 Nordre Follo 63 560 73 983 64 890 82 408 Ullensaker 43 814 57 478 50 339 64 221 Nesodden 20 521 23 653 20 809 26 309 Frogn 16 244 18 101 16 020 20 092 Vestby 19 493 24 377 21 506 27 037 Ås 22 005 28 182 24 462 31 776 Enebakk 11 482 13 266 11 696 14 726 Lørenskog 48 188 63 803 55 835 71 282 Rælingen 20 099 25 355 22 202 28 283 Aurskog-Høland 18 058 20 818 18 464 22 984 Nes 24 645 30 209 26 677 33 431 Gjerdrum 7 398 9 468 8 377 10 483 Nittedal 25 882 30 903 27 067 34 462 Lunner 9 357 10 220 9 038 11 331 Jevnaker 7 037 8 358 7 400 9 244 Nannestad 16 126 22 404 19 715 24 880 Eidsvoll 27 916 35 067 30 898 38 902 Hurdal 3 041 4 000 3 516 4 464 Drammen 104 487 115 964 102 138 129 094 Kongsberg 28 848 32 165 28 262 35 997 Ringerike 31 581 35 080 30 986 38 950 Hole 6 989 8 570 7 551 9 533 Lier 28 470 34 197 29 999 38 170 Øvre Eiker 20 779 25 722 22 767 28 433 Modum 14 665 16 382 14 483 18 167 Krødsherad 2 241 2 334 2 038 2 632 Flå 1 115 1 311 1 143 1 484 Nesbyen 3 301 3 050 2 686 3 414 Gol 4 986 5 535 4 822 6 263 Hemsedal 2 666 3 475 2 984 4 007 Ål 5 007 5 242 4 508 6 002 Hol 4 496 4 891 4 255 5 547 Sigdal 3 526 3 582 3 189 3 961 Flesberg 2 781 3 275 2 896 3 637 Rollag 1 395 1 466 1 297 1 630 Nore og Uvdal 2 486 2 370 2 073 2 675 Kongsvinger 18 058 18 346 16 141 20 463 Hamar 32 879 38 063 33 580 42 256 Lillehammer 28 768 32 314 28 436 35 935 Gjøvik 30 903 33 447 29 405 37 269 Ringsaker 35 612 38 036 33 728 42 013 Løten 7 929 8 558 7 563 9 473 Stange 21 605 24 529 21 653 27 197 Nord-Odal 4 992 4 824 4 301 5 310 Sør-Odal 8 112 9 034 8 055 9 947 Eidskog 6 040 6 129 5 457 6 772 Grue 4 532 4 533 4 010 5 040 Åsnes 7 339 7 282 6 400 8 153 Våler (Innlandet) 3 615 3 502 3 087 3 907 Elverum 21 761 22 590 19 933 25 077 Trysil 6 566 6 094 5 343 6 855 Åmot 4 289 4 856 4 253 5 431 Stor-Elvdal 2 276 2 500 2 171 2 849 Rendalen 1 837 2 055 1 811 2 299 Engerdal 1 361 1 578 1 332 1 863 Tolga 1 604 1 477 1 282 1 674 Tynset 5 692 5 708 4 961 6 445 Alvdal 2 526 2 359 2 068 2 638 Folldal 1 532 1 445 1 281 1 606 Os 1 891 1 876 1 656 2 088 Dovre 2 503 2 462 2 143 2 785 Lesja 1 983 1 707 1 501 1 905 Skjåk 2 141 1 767 1 570 1 954 Lom 2 212 1 916 1 681 2 141 Vågå 3 531 3 063 2 709 3 395 Nord-Fron 5 586 5 033 4 399 5 652 Sel 5 756 5 359 4 605 6 132 Sør-Fron 3 119 3 137 2 723 3 556 Ringebu 4 413 4 221 3 689 4 756 Øyer 5 124 5 436 4 779 6 074 Gausdal 6 177 6 021 5 394 6 597 Østre Toten 14 840 15 071 13 307 16 747 Vestre Toten 13 691 14 816 13 186 16 303 Gran 13 593 13 973 12 415 15 435 Søndre Land 5 587 5 933 5 248 6 596 Nordre Land 6 510 6 187 5 454 6 883 Sør-Aurdal 2 836 2 625 2 331 2 906 Etnedal 1 366 1 452 1 242 1 677 Nord-Aurdal 6 562 6 541 5 725 7 340 Vestre Slidre 2 112 2 177 1 909 2 435 Øystre Slidre 3 298 3 396 2 970 3 825 Vang 1 645 1 976 1 673 2 307 Horten 27 939 29 859 26 348 33 191 Holmestrand 26 872 33 427 29 650 36 915 Tønsberg 59 174 66 892 59 275 74 020 Sandefjord 66 231 73 640 64 997 81 848 Larvik 48 715 52 651 46 709 58 212 Færder 27 501 30 052 26 637 33 245 Porsgrunn 37 193 40 193 35 404 44 728 Skien 56 619 60 551 53 631 66 912 Notodden 13 266 13 535 11 915 15 089 Siljan 2 382 2 674 2 377 2 940 Bamble 14 269 14 244 12 629 15 729 Kragerø 10 445 10 069 8 920 11 171 Drangedal 4 086 3 824 3 364 4 259 Nome 6 539 6 588 5 750 7 418 Midt-Telemark 10 904 12 795 11 150 14 393 Seljord 2 979 2 930 2 560 3 291 Hjartdal 1 630 1 632 1 422 1 843 Tinn 5 533 5 157 4 527 5 797 Kviteseid 2 458 2 513 2 225 2 786 Nissedal 1 471 1 535 1 354 1 717 Fyresdal 1 256 1 313 1 144 1 483 Tokke 2 212 2 171 1 911 2 421 Vinje 3 851 3 962 3 460 4 460 Risør 6 825 6 904 6 101 7 685 Grimstad 24 969 29 383 25 811 32 687 Arendal 46 355 48 284 42 759 53 486 Kristiansand 116 986 139 635 122 764 154 991 Lindesnes 23 690 24 610 21 646 27 429 Farsund 9 876 9 599 8 351 10 853 Flekkefjord 9 279 9 076 7 923 10 185 Gjerstad 2 444 2 423 2 138 2 699 Vegårshei 2 268 2 680 2 332 3 023 Tvedestrand 6 323 7 077 6 274 7 827 Froland 6 236 7 459 6 638 8 176 Lillesand 11 523 13 372 11 806 14 832 Birkenes 5 480 6 251 5 490 6 954 Åmli 1 802 1 942 1 716 2 156 Iveland 1 380 1 639 1 438 1 826 Evje og Hornnes 3 967 4 368 3 756 4 998 Bygland 1 180 1 341 1 170 1 512 Valle 1 205 1 187 1 034 1 335 Bykle 1 011 1 425 1 241 1 613 Vennesla 15 452 17 307 15 287 19 147 Åseral 923 832 731 932 Lyngdal 10 835 11 439 9 952 12 895 Hægebostad 1 776 1 691 1 490 1 876 Kvinesdal 6 192 6 174 5 382 6 957 Sirdal 1 873 1 912 1 676 2 139 Eigersund 15 221 14 857 13 069 16 529 Stavanger 149 048 161 063 140 086 181 837 Haugesund 38 292 41 120 36 039 46 002 Sandnes 83 702 93 609 82 217 104 330 Sokndal 3 347 2 993 2 638 3 330 Lund 3 226 3 224 2 806 3 639 Bjerkreim 2 892 3 026 2 661 3 367 Hå 19 827 21 551 18 811 24 126 Klepp 20 900 24 766 21 758 27 472 Time 19 910 23 350 20 623 25 783 Gjesdal 12 362 14 007 12 294 15 570 Sola 28 685 33 906 29 586 38 025 Randaberg 11 742 13 892 12 151 15 500 Strand 13 703 14 711 12 930 16 349 Hjelmeland 2 643 2 680 2 336 3 026 Suldal 3 889 3 681 3 203 4 150 Sauda 4 572 4 162 3 619 4 694 Kvitsøy 544 680 601 755 Bokn 883 920 817 1 016 Tysvær 11 570 12 722 11 176 14 119 Karmøy 43 306 43 353 38 320 47 853 Utsira 215 305 264 346 Vindafjord 8 938 8 972 7 857 10 040 Bergen 291 940 321 493 282 722 358 284 Kinn 17 349 16 489 14 328 18 634 Etne 4 072 3 783 3 342 4 195 Sveio 5 742 6 092 5 392 6 738 Bømlo 12 268 11 879 10 461 13 225 Stord 19 287 19 505 17 135 21 762 Fitjar 3 203 3 193 2 816 3 540 Tysnes 2 922 2 993 2 646 3 323 Kvinnherad 13 089 11 876 10 504 13 135 Ullensvang 11 017 10 070 8 703 11 486 Eidfjord 968 987 853 1 119 Ulvik 1 089 1 215 1 063 1 362 Voss 16 471 17 546 15 351 19 643 Kvam 8 496 7 812 6 903 8 669 Samnanger 2 502 2 523 2 239 2 787 Bjørnafjorden 26 080 30 340 26 853 33 487 Austevoll 5 300 5 218 4 564 5 842 Øygarden 39 768 44 821 39 679 49 472 Askøy 30 145 32 853 29 113 36 143 Vaksdal 3 852 3 614 3 184 4 033 Modalen 384 412 358 463 Osterøy 8 200 8 340 7 412 9 181 Alver 29 986 31 835 28 262 35 063 Austrheim 2 881 3 240 2 872 3 576 Fedje 519 605 529 679 Masfjorden 1 694 1 765 1 548 1 973 Gulen 2 234 2 304 2 011 2 594 Solund 750 778 673 887 Hyllestad 1 268 1 294 1 134 1 461 Høyanger 3 879 3 325 2 926 3 722 Vik 2 551 2 170 1 903 2 432 Sogndal 12 319 13 889 12 079 15 605 Aurland 1 800 2 263 1 929 2 614 Lærdal 2 160 2 152 1 862 2 445 Årdal 5 239 4 441 3 882 4 992 Luster 5 371 5 118 4 476 5 747 Askvoll 2 986 2 788 2 432 3 136 Fjaler 2 869 3 069 2 570 3 597 Sunnfjord 22 450 22 428 19 701 24 970 Bremanger 3 392 2 771 2 432 3 111 Stad 9 610 9 579 8 383 10 715 Gloppen 5 926 5 715 4 983 6 430 Stryn 7 271 7 205 6 232 8 199 Kristiansund 24 404 24 346 21 482 27 094 Molde 32 816 34 602 30 333 38 716 Ålesund 58 509 62 151 54 394 69 537 Vanylven 3 026 2 585 2 270 2 894 Sande 2 438 2 375 2 054 2 709 Herøy (Møre og Romsdal) 8 968 8 518 7 464 9 546 Ulstein 8 861 9 708 8 414 10 999 Hareid 5 322 5 629 4 878 6 380 Ørsta 10 958 10 531 9 272 11 712 Stranda 4 348 4 298 3 740 4 872 Sykkylven 7 617 6 868 6 055 7 656 Sula 9 720 10 981 9 681 12 158 Giske 8 691 9 747 8 588 10 799 Vestnes 7 147 7 079 6 194 7 954 Rauma 7 299 7 290 6 358 8 216 Aukra 3 678 4 398 3 812 4 972 Averøy 5 955 6 417 5 644 7 168 Gjemnes 2 700 2 946 2 564 3 315 Tingvoll 3 041 3 158 2 732 3 597 Sunndal 7 227 6 812 5 848 7 824 Surnadal 5 953 5 358 4 695 5 999 Smøla 2 159 2 162 1 884 2 443 Aure 3 408 3 243 2 832 3 651 Volda 11 093 12 551 10 883 14 127 Fjord 2 492 2 510 2 198 2 807 Hustadvika 13 437 13 391 11 808 14 857 Haram 9 357 9 685 8 540 10 765 Trondheim - Tråante 214 565 250 341 219 610 279 625 Steinkjer 24 032 23 004 20 164 25 712 Namsos - Nåavmesjenjaelmie 15 083 14 250 12 470 15 941 Frøya 5 453 6 980 5 997 8 003 Osen 898 867 762 967 Oppdal 7 389 7 501 6 533 8 444 Rennebu 2 484 2 396 2 100 2 677 Røros - Rossen 5 685 6 018 5 276 6 738 Holtålen 2 035 1 952 1 719 2 170 Midtre Gauldal 6 140 5 986 5 234 6 700 Melhus 17 560 19 615 17 298 21 724 Skaun 8 484 9 947 8 836 10 922 Malvik 14 783 17 357 15 246 19 297 Selbu 4 216 4 481 3 999 4 921 Tydal 773 791 702 878 Meråker 2 454 2 642 2 320 2 965 Stjørdal 24 717 26 298 23 319 29 025 Frosta 2 645 2 872 2 520 3 211 Levanger - Levangke 20 574 21 670 19 007 24 150 Verdal 15 193 14 986 13 258 16 562 Snåase - Snåsa 2 114 1 996 1 716 2 280 Lierne 1 301 1 109 965 1 257 Raarvihke - Røyrvik 423 383 332 434 Namsskogan 810 920 789 1 053 Grong 2 322 2 466 2 131 2 805 Høylandet 1 222 1 054 908 1 200 Overhalla 3 924 4 098 3 559 4 608 Flatanger 1 116 1 210 1 052 1 366 Leka 604 704 608 798 Inderøy 6 938 7 346 6 477 8 137 Indre Fosen 10 023 9 501 8 357 10 589 Heim 6 093 5 893 5 115 6 671 Hitra 5 323 6 356 5 517 7 194 Ørland 10 522 11 228 9 887 12 456 Åfjord 4 339 4 269 3 743 4 771 Orkland 18 793 19 459 17 235 21 512 Nærøysund 9 968 9 876 8 601 11 103 Rindal 1 958 1 636 1 459 1 794 Bodø 53 712 56 427 49 276 63 351 Narvik 21 580 19 973 17 445 22 482 Bindal 1 399 1 209 1 065 1 352 Sømna 1 976 1 891 1 654 2 117 Brønnøy 7 826 7 395 6 514 8 235 Vega 1 208 1 209 1 050 1 366 Vevelstad 480 534 465 603 Herøy (Nordland) 1 842 1 982 1 709 2 272 Alstahaug 7 421 7 290 6 334 8 262 Leirfjord 2 352 2 550 2 210 2 897 Vefsn 13 469 12 752 11 187 14 243 Grane 1 447 1 416 1 224 1 609 Aarborte - Hattfjelldal 1 284 1 140 977 1 311 Dønna 1 427 1 378 1 190 1 574 Nesna 1 808 2 235 1 890 2 609 Hemnes 4 485 4 237 3 735 4 717 Rana - Raane 25 994 24 114 21 301 26 738 Lurøy 1 886 1 940 1 698 2 178 Træna 442 567 479 661 Rødøy 1 139 982 866 1 093 Meløy 6 180 5 407 4 737 6 063 Gildeskål 1 958 2 304 1 997 2 618 Beiarn 1 062 1 018 887 1 153 Saltdal 4 880 4 749 4 069 5 454 Fauske - Fuosko 9 827 9 644 8 432 10 822 Sørfold - Fuolldá 1 858 1 793 1 565 2 012 Steigen 2 672 2 877 2 496 3 257 Lødingen 2 060 2 167 1 861 2 504 Evenes - Evenássi 1 330 1 467 1 287 1 651 Røst 460 429 380 475 Værøy 683 650 560 742 Flakstad 1 229 1 324 1 147 1 507 Vestvågøy 11 619 11 800 10 256 13 306 Vågan 9 793 10 431 9 006 11 900 Hadsel 8 236 8 057 7 021 9 081 Bø (Nordland) 2 634 2 630 2 309 2 952 Øksnes 4 569 4 457 3 854 5 085 Sortland - Suortá 10 618 10 529 9 187 11 834 Andøy 4 553 4 301 3 729 4 885 Moskenes 954 1 128 973 1 294 Hábmer - Hamarøy 2 729 2 851 2 470 3 246 Tromsø 78 745 85 028 74 019 95 880 Harstad - Hárstták 25 056 24 318 21 300 27 215 Kvæfjord 2 845 3 156 2 730 3 589 Dielddanuorri - Tjeldsund 4 281 4 448 3 887 5 007 Ibestad 1 311 1 302 1 139 1 467 Gratangen - Rivtták 1 070 1 125 987 1 268 Loabák - Lavangen 986 851 742 964 Bardu 3 986 4 448 3 849 5 034 Salangen 2 069 1 977 1 689 2 285 Målselv 6 714 7 087 6 156 7 995 Sørreisa 3 485 3 422 2 977 3 863 Dyrøy 1 073 1 011 883 1 138 Senja 14 894 14 579 12 696 16 467 Balsfjord 5 571 5 655 4 945 6 354 Karlsøy 2 237 2 541 2 225 2 860 Lyngen 2 743 2 499 2 192 2 803 Storfjord - Omasvuotna - Omasvuono 1 825 1 745 1 530 1 960 Gáivuotna - Kåfjord - Kaivuono 1 974 1 758 1 538 1 975 Skjervøy 2 794 2 711 2 328 3 109 Nordreisa - Ráisa - Raisi 4 794 4 642 4 021 5 261 Kvænangen 1 157 1 245 1 090 1 397 Alta 21 708 23 062 20 022 25 956 Hammerfest - Hámmerfeasta 11 338 11 125 9 641 12 637 Sør-Varanger 10 063 10 397 8 988 11 837 Vadsø 5 807 5 573 4 798 6 394 Kárásjohka - Karasjok 2 565 2 321 2 050 2 577 Guovdageaidnu - Kautokeino 2 848 2 550 2 223 2 860 Loppa 864 1 094 945 1 250 Hasvik 979 1 189 1 029 1 356 Måsøy 1 113 1 334 1 154 1 525 Nordkapp 2 951 2 954 2 555 3 364 Porsanger - Porsángu - Porsanki 3 889 3 617 3 177 4 038 Lebesby 1 215 1 308 1 126 1 499 Gamvik 1 070 1 366 1 162 1 593 Deatnu - Tana 2 807 2 838 2 482 3 193 Berlevåg 892 926 797 1 061 Båtsfjord 2 113 2 076 1 768 2 405 Vardø 1 972 2 136 1 831 2 463 Unjárga - Nesseby 859 944 830 1 058 The numbers for Haram og Ålesund municipality were corrected on the 13th of September 2024. Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ... - Download table as ...14289: Framskrevne befolkningsendringer, etter region, alternativ, statistikkvariabel og år
Hovedalternativet (MMMM) Fødte Døde Nettoinnvandring Innenlands nettoinnflytting 2024 2050 2024 2050 2024 2050 2024 2050 3101 Halden 258 266 309 403 78 30 43 171 3103 Moss 427 460 477 662 369 94 322 305 3105 Sarpsborg 547 575 530 692 183 44 353 209 3107 Fredrikstad 696 744 782 1 069 381 77 229 463 3110 Hvaler 25 33 53 96 20 5 85 87 3112 Råde 63 76 75 98 71 53 12 6 3114 Våler (Østfold) 56 73 39 72 48 5 97 41 3116 Skiptvet 31 38 32 49 21 1 55 27 3118 Indre Østfold 402 426 405 574 302 65 213 234 3120 Rakkestad 72 75 80 108 35 7 9 48 3122 Marker 28 29 45 52 6 0 11 35 3124 Aremark 10 12 15 21 6 2 15 10 3201 Bærum 1 163 1 289 965 1 391 482 134 -41 357 3203 Asker 825 891 708 1 081 562 141 117 364 3205 Lillestrøm 914 986 646 981 698 141 1 048 198 3207 Nordre Follo 571 622 456 661 374 73 480 159 3209 Ullensaker 432 500 269 456 359 85 416 152 3212 Nesodden 155 174 142 242 58 24 83 113 3214 Frogn 112 121 145 222 120 32 19 114 3216 Vestby 167 191 126 224 125 22 174 122 3218 Ås 216 260 135 209 250 77 422 -27 3220 Enebakk 93 104 75 127 59 15 37 52 3222 Lørenskog 550 610 302 516 504 63 728 102 3224 Rælingen 206 241 118 196 130 32 295 8 3226 Aurskog-Høland 142 158 161 225 79 15 -47 134 3228 Nes 222 248 193 300 124 12 167 155 3230 Gjerdrum 58 71 51 90 47 9 60 58 3232 Nittedal 222 254 168 265 165 46 195 64 3234 Lunner 78 81 76 118 46 22 5 31 3236 Jevnaker 57 65 66 92 61 11 21 47 3238 Nannestad 173 203 92 169 141 13 278 72 3240 Eidsvoll 274 316 208 323 159 25 249 134 3242 Hurdal 25 31 28 41 91 10 19 18 0301 Oslo 9 004 9 637 4 065 5 898 4 144 1 047 -2 526 -3 289 3301 Drammen 952 1 011 848 1 122 645 213 19 145 3303 Kongsberg 230 253 244 331 302 96 -35 57 3305 Ringerike 257 278 314 399 178 73 44 128 3310 Hole 50 64 57 89 35 15 106 44 3312 Lier 247 278 212 318 235 75 131 88 3314 Øvre Eiker 194 220 168 249 80 22 160 117 3316 Modum 117 129 137 189 136 34 -25 68 3318 Krødsherad 16 17 24 31 33 12 4 3 3320 Flå 10 10 13 15 24 9 18 -2 3322 Nesbyen 24 22 38 46 31 13 -35 4 3324 Gol 40 41 48 61 163 32 -19 -8 3326 Hemsedal 25 28 19 31 67 40 -1 -23 3328 Ål 41 39 53 63 205 41 -26 -26 3330 Hol 36 39 45 61 65 33 -5 -8 3332 Sigdal 23 23 35 49 29 9 4 15 3334 Flesberg 23 26 25 37 26 9 27 11 3336 Rollag 10 10 18 20 12 4 2 6 3338 Nore og Uvdal 17 17 29 35 10 15 -7 -3 3401 Kongsvinger 132 130 206 241 154 45 23 63 3403 Hamar 281 309 308 400 247 68 286 109 3405 Lillehammer 243 279 263 333 204 54 94 60 3407 Gjøvik 252 276 292 356 210 90 120 25 3411 Ringsaker 304 300 354 446 172 67 -28 118 3412 Løten 67 70 76 98 63 12 27 25 3413 Stange 191 205 193 266 149 47 66 58 3414 Nord-Odal 32 30 65 75 9 4 -2 38 3415 Sør-Odal 63 64 79 116 16 11 58 58 3416 Eidskog 39 38 78 97 27 8 26 49 3417 Grue 30 31 65 69 25 12 21 23 3418 Åsnes 50 48 98 108 105 34 22 18 3419 Våler (Innlandet) 21 22 51 57 13 12 16 19 3420 Elverum 185 192 208 259 125 49 -26 27 3421 Trysil 48 41 81 88 55 31 -66 7 3422 Åmot 32 42 48 55 102 10 49 7 3423 Stor-Elvdal 17 18 34 37 21 25 12 -4 3424 Rendalen 12 13 27 32 19 8 41 13 3425 Engerdal 8 9 16 22 92 29 -2 -17 3426 Tolga 13 11 17 20 21 9 -6 -5 3427 Tynset 48 45 58 71 102 28 -49 -11 3428 Alvdal 18 18 24 32 29 9 -8 -3 3429 Folldal 9 10 22 23 10 4 7 8 3430 Os 15 14 23 27 11 5 8 5 3431 Dovre 19 19 34 34 39 16 -3 -4 3432 Lesja 15 13 24 25 15 5 -23 0 3433 Skjåk 14 12 27 29 10 3 -16 4 3434 Lom 17 16 26 29 14 6 -14 -3 3435 Vågå 28 24 41 46 20 7 -24 1 3436 Nord-Fron 39 37 67 73 78 24 -67 -2 3437 Sel 44 41 69 76 217 40 -67 -30 3438 Sør-Fron 24 23 34 42 35 22 -28 -7 3439 Ringebu 36 33 52 56 47 23 -34 -7 3440 Øyer 40 45 51 65 41 20 -17 5 3441 Gausdal 48 44 65 80 14 5 3 25 3442 Østre Toten 115 119 159 190 83 47 -76 29 3443 Vestre Toten 115 120 137 168 54 20 49 47 3446 Gran 94 95 147 188 83 28 -15 77 3447 Søndre Land 40 41 64 83 58 24 -19 25 3448 Nordre Land 47 44 80 92 38 19 -30 21 3449 Sør-Aurdal 20 18 37 41 12 5 -9 13 3450 Etnedal 10 9 17 19 96 16 -14 -8 3451 Nord-Aurdal 54 53 71 86 114 24 -11 -1 3452 Vestre Slidre 18 17 24 29 17 6 8 4 3453 Øystre Slidre 28 25 32 45 44 18 -3 -1 3454 Vang 13 15 17 21 65 30 -6 -21 3901 Horten 213 225 278 350 201 74 7 94 3903 Holmestrand 246 266 225 355 229 46 266 173 3905 Tønsberg 512 527 502 707 295 115 175 212 3907 Sandefjord 534 557 586 808 298 143 158 260 3909 Larvik 370 383 457 629 268 98 111 211 3911 Færder 192 205 268 371 168 41 135 172 4001 Porsgrunn 312 321 349 452 340 124 -27 44 4003 Skien 489 492 526 676 329 96 207 129 4005 Notodden 107 107 138 167 143 42 6 10 4010 Siljan 19 22 23 29 9 1 2 12 4012 Bamble 107 105 138 183 83 25 7 42 4014 Kragerø 72 67 116 143 67 30 -30 34 4016 Drangedal 31 29 47 53 28 12 -36 6 4018 Nome 51 49 69 86 83 35 -46 -3 4020 Midt-Telemark 96 111 94 125 145 60 40 -12 4022 Seljord 22 24 33 38 30 13 -10 -1 4024 Hjartdal 14 12 17 21 39 9 3 -4 4026 Tinn 37 32 65 77 41 32 -37 1 4028 Kviteseid 17 17 28 34 22 4 0 10 4030 Nissedal 9 10 15 21 14 7 19 3 4032 Fyresdal 9 8 14 18 22 7 -3 2 4034 Tokke 18 16 25 30 11 7 4 3 4036 Vinje 34 33 37 50 37 20 -10 -6 4201 Risør 49 46 77 98 49 27 -19 24 4202 Grimstad 239 262 185 267 197 59 127 20 4203 Arendal 368 362 402 564 300 105 -20 103 4204 Kristiansand 1 176 1 373 852 1 231 589 167 511 144 4205 Lindesnes 201 197 206 285 182 83 -65 2 4206 Farsund 83 77 94 117 169 63 -114 -38 4207 Flekkefjord 79 77 92 106 32 40 -23 -25 4211 Gjerstad 19 17 25 33 26 11 -12 1 4212 Vegårshei 21 22 18 29 90 13 3 -5 4213 Tvedestrand 51 53 66 88 23 12 85 33 4214 Froland 60 65 45 72 2 0 59 29 4215 Lillesand 97 111 90 141 92 31 -2 37 4216 Birkenes 52 57 38 54 47 17 10 -6 4217 Åmli 14 14 19 24 12 6 5 6 4218 Iveland 13 15 11 17 14 4 15 3 4219 Evje og Hornnes 35 35 35 47 153 35 -32 -21 4220 Bygland 9 10 12 18 27 8 6 1 4221 Valle 10 10 12 15 10 5 -4 -3 4222 Bykle 10 11 7 13 25 9 12 -1 4223 Vennesla 160 165 114 166 86 32 4 -4 4224 Åseral 8 6 9 11 16 4 -9 -2 4225 Lyngdal 98 99 85 114 176 65 -72 -48 4226 Hægebostad 16 14 16 19 12 4 -11 -2 4227 Kvinesdal 54 51 54 73 106 34 -53 -23 4228 Sirdal 17 15 17 21 15 8 7 -4 1101 Eigersund 143 131 129 171 111 37 -67 -25 1103 Stavanger 1 506 1 565 1 005 1 498 1 085 293 391 -283 1106 Haugesund 368 370 314 432 328 114 -82 -36 1108 Sandnes 887 911 490 816 416 148 -70 -85 1111 Sokndal 28 24 32 40 33 9 -36 -4 1112 Lund 27 28 27 38 39 19 -28 -13 1114 Bjerkreim 26 25 20 34 27 8 18 -3 1119 Hå 216 222 125 199 184 65 -142 -61 1120 Klepp 242 261 124 197 77 20 63 -13 1121 Time 216 240 121 200 72 15 43 5 1122 Gjesdal 124 137 68 123 60 22 -12 -6 1124 Sola 315 346 167 279 221 44 90 -34 1127 Randaberg 119 136 76 120 104 26 -1 -7 1130 Strand 139 140 98 141 111 28 -45 -11 1133 Hjelmeland 21 20 25 33 53 16 -19 -5 1134 Suldal 30 29 37 46 64 18 -28 -11 1135 Sauda 37 32 54 54 57 20 -35 -14 1144 Kvitsøy 4 5 6 8 8 1 5 5 1145 Bokn 7 7 9 11 13 1 4 2 1146 Tysvær 115 121 81 120 81 21 11 -11 1149 Karmøy 424 401 346 458 240 54 -175 -50 1151 Utsira 1 2 2 4 8 2 6 1 1160 Vindafjord 81 79 79 101 89 30 -59 -19 4601 Bergen 3 041 3 243 2 121 2 832 1 518 386 260 -447 4602 Kinn 145 132 156 204 220 91 -172 -71 4611 Etne 33 31 40 48 11 8 -20 -2 4612 Sveio 48 49 44 70 27 12 -4 12 4613 Bømlo 101 91 94 132 101 42 -76 -23 4614 Stord 170 164 138 199 150 64 -97 -44 4615 Fitjar 25 24 27 39 0 6 3 5 4616 Tysnes 23 21 34 40 16 8 0 13 4617 Kvinnherad 113 95 130 154 80 23 -122 -9 4618 Ullensvang 90 79 126 134 144 86 -153 -66 4619 Eidfjord 9 9 10 13 18 4 -3 -3 4620 Ulvik 8 9 13 15 12 4 30 1 4621 Voss 156 155 161 191 210 63 -41 -24 4622 Kvam 65 59 86 101 24 20 -61 3 4623 Samnanger 19 20 24 32 15 4 -11 8 4624 Bjørnafjorden 253 275 181 286 89 27 84 69 4625 Austevoll 46 44 45 58 43 17 -59 -5 4626 Øygarden 376 402 259 440 185 61 -9 72 4627 Askøy 287 311 188 298 76 23 -61 27 4628 Vaksdal 29 26 44 49 33 14 -22 0 4629 Modalen 2 3 4 4 7 1 1 0 4630 Osterøy 74 72 68 93 34 12 -51 9 4631 Alver 268 270 219 337 103 42 -119 55 4632 Austrheim 22 25 28 36 14 5 18 13 4633 Fedje 3 4 6 8 9 3 16 1 4634 Masfjorden 13 13 20 23 16 6 15 1 4635 Gulen 19 19 24 28 31 12 -11 -6 4636 Solund 6 6 10 11 7 6 -7 -2 4637 Hyllestad 7 8 16 18 14 9 -1 1 4638 Høyanger 27 21 44 52 23 17 -46 -5 4639 Vik 19 16 33 33 23 9 -19 -4 4640 Sogndal 137 148 98 124 106 54 -27 -60 4641 Aurland 19 22 17 22 58 20 -4 -16 4642 Lærdal 17 17 25 29 28 14 -5 -6 4643 Årdal 40 33 60 63 55 20 -39 -17 4644 Luster 47 41 52 63 78 22 -61 -14 4645 Askvoll 21 20 37 40 38 10 -6 1 4646 Fjaler 21 31 29 31 68 45 -47 -42 4647 Sunnfjord 221 210 163 238 160 67 -122 -80 4648 Bremanger 22 18 43 42 18 13 -42 -4 4649 Stad 84 79 90 115 37 31 -22 -13 4650 Gloppen 48 47 58 68 55 27 -53 -17 4651 Stryn 62 59 61 80 106 50 -82 -38 1505 Kristiansund 201 193 224 292 162 71 2 -4 1506 Molde 293 303 288 378 312 116 -20 -45 1508 Ålesund 595 589 459 618 281 160 -203 -112 1511 Vanylven 21 18 41 43 37 8 -15 1 1514 Sande 18 18 27 32 26 18 -20 -7 1515 Herøy (Møre og Romsdal) 74 68 79 105 88 33 -60 -21 1516 Ulstein 86 88 66 98 140 52 -55 -36 1517 Hareid 48 47 45 61 133 30 -28 -20 1520 Ørsta 99 91 98 122 65 29 -114 -18 1525 Stranda 34 34 50 52 47 27 -36 -13 1528 Sykkylven 55 48 68 89 44 24 -72 -10 1531 Sula 90 99 71 99 45 12 16 11 1532 Giske 81 89 64 92 24 12 -26 15 1535 Vestnes 53 51 68 92 73 34 -12 -7 1539 Rauma 60 56 78 86 193 31 -45 -13 1547 Aukra 32 37 34 39 66 20 7 -5 1554 Averøy 45 48 54 77 65 25 25 6 1557 Gjemnes 21 24 26 34 52 13 -6 -1 1560 Tingvoll 19 23 36 41 64 27 -13 -9 1563 Sunndal 56 52 75 91 214 70 -92 -59 1566 Surnadal 50 43 64 75 61 20 -54 -10 1573 Smøla 19 17 26 30 20 13 4 -4 1576 Aure 24 24 40 48 54 16 -18 -2 1577 Volda 109 132 97 114 140 55 80 -63 1578 Fjord 16 19 30 34 23 6 2 5 1579 Hustadvika 117 114 114 154 98 23 -46 0 1580 Haram 73 79 90 113 34 21 -27 13 5001 Trondheim - Tråante 2 249 2 465 1 342 2 004 1 512 480 -72 -300 5006 Steinkjer 203 188 250 289 206 85 -190 -31 5007 Namsos - Nåavmesjenjaelmie 136 131 153 176 145 55 -83 -46 5014 Frøya 60 62 45 65 135 55 -7 -27 5020 Osen 6 6 12 14 7 3 4 3 5021 Oppdal 63 61 73 89 107 35 -22 -12 5022 Rennebu 20 20 29 33 11 9 -12 1 5025 Røros - Rossen 50 49 66 78 64 20 25 9 5026 Holtålen 18 15 24 26 20 5 -5 2 5027 Midtre Gauldal 58 55 62 73 53 20 -37 -9 5028 Melhus 170 177 138 186 127 35 8 14 5029 Skaun 79 90 55 86 15 1 12 30 5031 Malvik 137 153 86 145 78 33 106 -2 5032 Selbu 31 34 43 54 27 4 9 21 5033 Tydal 5 6 11 13 8 3 15 2 5034 Meråker 19 18 27 33 27 16 -2 2 5035 Stjørdal 214 216 202 285 141 49 -59 50 5036 Frosta 22 22 30 36 24 10 -5 7 5037 Levanger - Levangke 191 200 172 234 191 65 -63 -33 5038 Verdal 136 129 137 180 95 22 -43 7 5041 Snåase - Snåsa 17 15 25 28 77 14 -15 -10 5042 Lierne 8 6 16 17 20 8 -11 -3 5043 Raarvihke - Røyrvik 3 3 6 6 9 2 -5 -1 5044 Namsskogan 7 7 13 13 19 6 6 0 5045 Grong 18 20 30 29 26 21 17 -14 5046 Høylandet 8 8 15 14 28 6 -12 -5 5047 Overhalla 38 38 36 45 62 16 -3 -13 5049 Flatanger 11 10 13 17 17 6 -11 1 5052 Leka 5 6 8 10 12 4 11 0 5053 Inderøy 55 58 61 86 41 10 42 16 5054 Indre Fosen 77 72 104 125 96 31 -62 3 5055 Heim 50 46 67 77 159 33 -32 -20 5056 Hitra 54 59 51 64 79 31 0 -7 5057 Ørland 101 104 102 124 39 20 -5 8 5058 Åfjord 39 35 51 56 39 14 0 1 5059 Orkland 162 160 186 233 111 35 -74 46 5060 Nærøysund 100 91 94 111 85 46 -71 -40 5061 Rindal 15 13 23 24 3 0 -13 3 1804 Bodø 543 530 389 559 666 233 -495 -222 1806 Narvik 181 163 227 261 151 97 -149 -65 1811 Bindal 7 7 18 20 13 4 -3 4 1812 Sømna 14 14 21 25 25 5 -12 1 1813 Brønnøy 68 59 69 93 46 25 -24 -15 1815 Vega 8 8 16 18 8 7 -2 1 1816 Vevelstad 3 4 6 7 3 3 15 1 1818 Herøy (Nordland) 15 14 19 26 40 19 0 -7 1820 Alstahaug 65 61 69 90 112 52 -31 -40 1822 Leirfjord 19 19 23 32 35 19 7 -7 1824 Vefsn 125 110 140 158 115 44 -124 -33 1825 Grane 11 11 18 19 17 9 -6 -4 1826 Aarborte - Hattfjelldal 9 8 18 16 11 13 -2 -10 1827 Dønna 11 10 16 21 28 11 -3 -5 1828 Nesna 13 17 17 24 93 30 -8 -19 1832 Hemnes 37 34 51 53 50 13 -25 -4 1833 Rana - Raane 239 204 243 295 101 60 -258 -47 1834 Lurøy 14 14 23 24 32 8 10 1 1835 Træna 5 5 3 6 16 7 0 -5 1836 Rødøy 9 8 13 15 9 2 -6 1 1837 Meløy 50 42 67 75 30 23 -53 -15 1838 Gildeskål 14 17 25 32 51 15 30 2 1839 Beiarn 8 6 16 15 19 7 10 -2 1840 Saltdal 38 33 54 63 187 39 -34 -26 1841 Fauske - Fuossko 85 77 102 124 201 36 -70 -17 1845 Sørfold - Fuolldá 14 14 25 24 13 5 -3 2 1848 Steigen 23 22 31 37 39 15 -8 0 1851 Lødingen 13 13 27 33 86 27 8 -12 1853 Evenes - Evenássi 9 9 17 20 13 9 32 3 1856 Røst 3 3 6 7 -1 1 5 1 1857 Værøy 5 5 8 9 14 5 -13 -2 1859 Flakstad 10 9 16 17 42 9 -3 -3 1860 Vestvågøy 115 106 111 134 132 53 -98 -37 1865 Vågan 91 88 92 116 166 82 -49 -56 1866 Hadsel 69 66 87 101 101 43 -35 -25 1867 Bø (Nordland) 19 18 39 40 31 12 14 6 1868 Øksnes 37 32 44 55 89 37 -44 -26 1870 Sortland - Suortá 95 88 90 120 122 47 -84 -34 1871 Andøy 37 35 55 59 66 30 -39 -17 1874 Moskenes 8 8 15 13 14 11 0 -3 1875 Hábmer - Hamarøy 20 21 31 38 42 20 11 -5 5501 Tromsø 859 867 504 761 784 298 -505 -391 5503 Harstad - Hárstták 234 219 222 280 196 91 -171 -84 5510 Kvæfjord 23 26 30 39 80 24 12 -13 5512 Dielddanuorri - Tjeldsund 31 31 53 60 100 22 20 1 5514 Ibestad 8 8 20 20 25 7 15 2 5516 Gratangen - Rivtták 7 6 15 16 8 8 -3 3 5518 Loabák - Lavangen 6 5 12 13 9 7 -9 -2 5520 Bardu 39 46 36 40 62 23 29 -27 5522 Salangen 14 15 23 26 38 28 -32 -20 5524 Målselv 61 67 66 76 99 32 3 -27 5526 Sørreisa 30 28 32 40 50 19 -10 -15 5528 Dyrøy 7 6 15 17 11 4 3 4 5530 Senja 125 116 148 180 167 84 -96 -44 5532 Balsfjord 42 43 68 73 59 21 23 6 5534 Karlsøy 16 17 31 36 29 13 47 9 5536 Lyngen 18 16 34 37 28 9 -1 3 5538 Storfjord - Omasvuotna - Omasvuono 12 12 19 25 10 8 -13 3 5540 Gáivuotna - Kåfjord - Kaivuono 14 12 28 29 7 8 -20 5 5542 Skjervøy 24 22 30 31 38 24 -7 -19 5544 Nordreisa - Ráisa - Raisi 39 37 51 60 93 27 -38 -13 5546 Kvænangen 9 9 17 17 19 4 26 3 5601 Alta 249 239 147 216 248 86 -118 -119 5603 Hammerfest - Hámmerfeasta 108 103 97 121 135 72 -92 -73 5605 Sør-Varanger 96 94 88 119 210 69 -75 -60 5607 Vadsø 52 47 55 68 147 58 -33 -55 5610 Kárásjohka - Karasjok 23 17 25 33 2 3 -7 2 5612 Guovdageaidnu - Kautokeino 24 21 25 33 7 7 -24 -5 5614 Loppa 6 8 12 13 13 8 20 0 5616 Hasvik 7 9 11 14 20 9 7 -1 5618 Måsøy 7 9 15 15 27 11 8 -1 5620 Nordkapp 25 23 35 38 35 18 3 -9 5622 Porsanger - Porsángu - Porsanki 27 26 43 53 16 6 -5 10 5624 Lebesby 9 10 15 17 18 10 -9 -3 5626 Gamvik 9 9 12 16 27 19 3 -7 5628 Deatnu - Tana 22 22 32 38 26 12 -3 3 5630 Berlevåg 7 7 11 13 11 8 3 -3 5632 Båtsfjord 19 18 19 23 41 23 -34 -22 5634 Vardø 16 16 25 30 52 21 4 -7 5636 Unjárga - Nesseby 6 7 11 13 2 4 20 2 Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ...
About the statistics
The information under «About the statistics» was last updated 4 July 2022.
A population projection is an estimate of the future size and composition of a population, typically given certain assumptions of future fertility, life expectancy, domestic migration, immigration and emigration.
To demonstrate that population projections are uncertain, Statistics Norway publishes several projection alternatives. The MMMM alternative which assumes the medium level for each component is what we assume to be most plausible at the time of projection.
The variables and terms used in the population projections are described in the projections' report.
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Name: Regional population projections
Topic: Population
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Research department, Unit for Public Economics and Demographic Models
The lowest regional levels for the population projections are municipalities.
The population projections are published biennially.
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The population projections utilize aggregated individual level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. The results from the projections are stored in the StatBank at Statistics Norway and as separate files. Aggregated data may be downloaded electronically from the StatBank.
The population projections aim at informing planning and public debate on population issues.
SSB has produced population projections regularly since the 1950s. Previous population projections can be found here, and in the StatBank.
The most important users of Statistics Norway's population projections are public and private planning bodies at the municipal, county and central government levels, as well as journalists, researchers, politicians and the general public.
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To project the population, assumptions are needed on future fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration. After the assumptions are made, the Norwegian population is projected using the cohort component models BEFREG.
The methods used are further described in the projections' report.
The population projections utilize aggregated individual level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. We use data categorized by age, sex and place of residence for 1 January each year, in addition to figures on births, deaths, domestic migration, immigration and emigration by age, sex and municipality/city district.
No samples are used. The projections utilize the whole population in estimations.
The methods used in the population projections are further described in the projections' report.
See the projections' report.
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The regional population projections are not directly comparable across publications because of changes in methodology and regional borders.
There is a marked uncertainty about whether the assumptions used in making the population projections will accurately reflect future demographic trends. Over the past decade, future immigration has proven to be the most difficult component to project. This is also likely to be the case in the years ahead. Fertility, mortality and internal migration can also be very different from what was projected.
Models are simplifications of reality, and as such may only capture a few key mechanisms. This means that there are a multitude of other conditions that will affect population development which are not considered.
Errors in the population statistics system are usually modest in Norway and play a minor role in the projections
In summary, the uncertainty increases with time.
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- Befolkningsframskrivinger for kommunene, 2020-2050
- Empirical Bayes estimation of local demographic rates - An application using Norwegian registry data. Documents (2020/03)
- Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules: reducing small area problems and preserving regional variation
Contact
Henvendelser om regionale framskrivinger
regfram@ssb.noRelatert innhold
Analyses, articles and publications
Article / 5 June 2024Municipal population projections 2024The backdrop for this year’s population projections for Norwegian municipalities is substantial immigration, particularly from Ukraine. In the main scenario, the projections show especially strong population growth in the short term, but also growth in the longer term.
Document / 6 February 2020Empirical Bayes estimation of local demographic ratesLocal governments and businesses rely on regional population projections to make informed planning and policy decisions. A prerequisite for producing reliable regional projections is access to high quality demographic rates, also for small populations.
Discussion paper / 28 April 2021Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules: reducing small area problems and preserving regional variationReliable local demographic schedules are in high demand, but small area problems pose a challenge to estimation. The literature has directed little attention to the opportunities created by increased availability of high-quality geo-coded data.