Regional population projections
Updated: 5 July 2022
Next update: Not yet determined
| 2022 | 2050 | Change in per cent | Change in number of persons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viken | 1 269 230 | 1 504 129 | 18.5 | 234 899 |
| Oslo | 699 827 | 809 155 | 15.6 | 109 328 |
| Innlandet | 371 253 | 387 388 | 4.3 | 16 135 |
| Vestfold og Telemark | 424 832 | 464 714 | 9.4 | 39 882 |
| Agder | 311 134 | 346 767 | 11.5 | 35 633 |
| Rogaland | 485 797 | 538 497 | 10.8 | 52 700 |
| Vestland | 641 292 | 694 074 | 8.2 | 52 782 |
| Møre og Romsdal | 265 848 | 275 324 | 3.6 | 9 476 |
| Trøndelag - Trööndelage | 474 131 | 522 958 | 10.3 | 48 827 |
| Nordland - Nordlánnda | 240 190 | 236 368 | -1.6 | -3 822 |
| Troms og Finnmark - Romsa ja Finnmárku | 241 736 | 249 456 | 3.2 | 7 720 |
More figures from this statistics
- 13600: Population projections 1 January, by sex and age, in 9 alternatives (M)
- 13605: Projected numbers of births and deaths, net immigration and domestic net migration, in 9 alternatives (M)
- 13609: Projected probability of death (per 1 000), by sex and age, in 3 alternatives (M)
- 13610: Projected total fertility rate and age-specific fertility rates for women (per 1 000), in 3 alternatives (M)
- 13611: Projected life expectancy at birth for men and women, in 3 alternatives (M)
About the statistics
Regional population projections are calculations of how the population in Norway will potentially develop over time, given different assumptions about fertility, mortality, internal migration, immigration and emigration. Read about results, methods and assumptions in the relevant report (in Norwegian).
A population projection is an estimate of the future size and composition of a population, typically given certain assumptions of future fertility, life expectancy, domestic migration, immigration and emigration.
To demonstrate that population projections are uncertain, Statistics Norway publishes several projection alternatives. The MMMM alternative which assumes the medium level for each component is what we assume to be most plausible at the time of projection.
The variables and terms used in the population projections are described in the projections' report.
Name: Regional population projections
Topic: Population
Research department, Unit for Public Economics and Demographic Models
The lowest regional levels for the population projections are municipalities.
The population projections are published biennially.
The population projections utilize aggregated individual level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. The results from the projections are stored in the StatBank at Statistics Norway and as separate files. Aggregated data may be downloaded electronically from the StatBank.
The population projections aim at informing planning and public debate on population issues.
SSB has produced population projections regularly since the 1950s. Previous population projections can be found here, and in the StatBank.
The most important users of Statistics Norway's population projections are public and private planning bodies at the municipal, county and central government levels, as well as journalists, researchers, politicians and the general public.
To project the population, assumptions are needed on future fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration. After the assumptions are made, the Norwegian population is projected using the cohort component models BEFREG.
The methods used are further described in the projections' report.
The population projections utilize aggregated individual level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. We use data categorized by age, sex and place of residence for 1 January each year, in addition to figures on births, deaths, domestic migration, immigration and emigration by age, sex and municipality/city district.
No samples are used. The projections utilize the whole population in estimations.
The methods used in the population projections are further described in the projections' report.
See the projections' report.
The regional population projections are not directly comparable across publications because of changes in methodology and regional borders.
There is a marked uncertainty about whether the assumptions used in making the population projections will accurately reflect future demographic trends. Over the past decade, future immigration has proven to be the most difficult component to project. This is also likely to be the case in the years ahead. Fertility, mortality and internal migration can also be very different from what was projected.
Models are simplifications of reality, and as such may only capture a few key mechanisms. This means that there are a multitude of other conditions that will affect population development which are not considered.
Errors in the population statistics system are usually modest in Norway and play a minor role in the projections
In summary, the uncertainty increases with time.
- Befolkningsframskrivinger for kommunene, 2020-2050
- Empirical Bayes estimation of local demographic rates - An application using Norwegian registry data. Documents (2020/03)
- Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules: reducing small area problems and preserving regional variation
Analyses, articles and publications
Contact
Henvendelser om regionale framskrivinger