The study is based on existing population projections for both countries and looks ahead to developments in 2035 and 2045. The goal is to shed light on changes in population size, age and gender distribution, generational composition, the immigrant population, and household structure. Demographic changes affect many areas of society and are key to both public and private sector planning. For municipalities, healthcare services, and educational institutions, population projections provide an essential basis for adapting services and infrastructure. Private actors similarly require this insight for strategic planning and investment. This knowledge is particularly critical in metropolitan areas, where population growth is strong and demographic composition is changing rapidly.

Key findings from the report:

Chapter 2 – Population Size

Projections show continued population growth in both Norway and Sweden, but at a slower pace than in previous decades. Norway’s population is expected to exceed 6 million around 2041 and reach 6.08 million by 2045, while Sweden may reach 11 million in 2040 and 11.15 million in 2045. In both countries, the largest cities and their neighboring municipalities are projected to grow the most, particularly due to immigration and urban centralization. Among the selected metro areas, growth is expected to be strongest in the capital regions: Oslo and Stockholm.

Chapter 3 – Age and Gender

Population ageing is evident in both countries. Within the next decade, there will be more elderly people than children and youth. The share of people aged 70 and above will increase, and the 80+ age group is projected to double by 2050. Although urban areas still have a concentration of youth and young adults, ageing is expected to affect cities as well. Gender differences in population growth are small, but women continue to outnumber men in the oldest age groups.

Chapter 4 – Generations

The report projects the size of five generations: the Baby Boomers, Generation X, Y, Z, and Alpha. These generations differ in their values and use of technology. By 2045, Generation Z (born 1997–2012) will be the largest in many areas, while the Baby Boomers, who will then be aged 81 to 99, will be largely phased out. Generation Alpha (born 2013–2025) is growing in number but still represents a smaller share of the population.

Chapter 5 – Immigrant Population

The immigrant population is expected to make up an increasingly large share, especially in urban areas. In Norway, persons with immigrant backgrounds (i.e. immigrants and their children born in Norway) are projected to account for nearly 28 percent of the population by 2045. Sweden projects only the number of immigrants, which may exceed 3.5 million in 2045, many of whom will live in the Stockholm region. In both countries, immigrants are becoming older and more established.

Chapter 6 – Households

Both countries are seeing a trend toward more, but smaller, households. One-person households are increasing both in absolute terms and as a share of all households, particularly in cities. Nearly half of Oslo’s population now lives alone, and the figure in Stockholm is around 45 percent. More than 2 million people live alone in Sweden, compared to over 1 million in Norway, equivalent to four in ten households in both countries. Traditional nuclear families (cohabiting or married parents) are in decline. This trend, driven by low fertility and changing relationship patterns, may have implications for welfare and social sustainability.