New figures from the National Accounts show that the construction industry and support activities for oil and gas extraction contributed 0.2 percentage points to the fall in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Mainland Norway from January to February. Several service industries also declined, but manufacturing grew.
– The economic movements observed from January to February are relatively small. A weakly negative development in certain industries leads to an overall decline in GDP, says Head of National Accounts, Pål Sletten.
The rolling three-month growth in GDP Mainland Norway was 0.3 per cent from September-November to December-February.
– The underlying growth in the Mainland Economy is showing some signs of slowing down. The rolling three-month growth has been decreasing in recent months, says Sletten.
As figures for February are published, some new statistics for previous months have been incorporated. GDP Mainland-Norway has been revised upwards from a fall of 0.2 per cent to an increase of 0.1 per cent.
– Some revisions in the figures for the previous month is not uncommon. When the economic fluctuations are minor, such as in January, revisions can change the overall picture somewhat. This underlines the importance of looking at the monthly figures in a broader context, rather than emphasising single months too much.
Industries
The value added in the service industries, including housing services, fell 0.2 per cent from January to February. Professional, scientific and technical activities, administrative and support service activities, and real estate services, were the main contributors to the decline. Meanwhile, wholesale and retail trade increased, driven by a growth in sale of motor vehicles, which rebounded from historically low levels in January. Despite the monthly growth, the volume is at a low level compared to last year.
Manufacturing and mining grew 0.1 per cent overall. Mining and quarrying, manufacturing of refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products, and repair and installation of machinery and equipment contributed to the growth.
Production of other goods declined 1.1 per cent. This was mainly driven by a fall in construction, and to a lesser extent a weak development in fishing.
Value added grew 0.3 per cent in the general government. Both central and local government activity increased, with health and social work contributing the most.
Oil and natural gas extraction increased 0.4 per cent in February. The decline in the price of natural gas over the last six months continued in February. Measured in current prices, value added in the extraction industry decreased 2.2 per cent. A fall in the support activities for extraction contributed decreased the activity in the Mainland Economy.
Household consumption
Household consumption grew 1.3 per cent in February. Since the end of 2022, the development in household consumption has been driven by strong fluctuations in car purchases. Before the turn of the year, there was a big rise in the consumption of transport means, which was followed by a sharp decline in January when new fees were imposed on electric cars. The growth in total household consumption in February was mainly caused by consumption of transportation means rebounding 19.1 per cent from a low level in January.
Household consumption excluding means of transport fell 0.8 per cent in February. There was a broad decline in goods consumption excluding transport means, but food consumption declined after an increase in January. The announced price increase of food in February may have contributed to some shift in food consumption from February to January.
Export and import
In February exports decreased 0.2 per cent, measured in constant 2020 prices. Exports of crude oil contributed most to the decline, while exports of traditional goods increased. Exports of services had a near flat development. Measured in current prices, total exports fell 1.5 per cent in February. Both prices and the volume of total exports fell, but falling prices for natural gas contributed the most.
Total imports increased 1.9 per cent in February, measured in constant 2020 prices. The growth was mainly due to an increase in import of traditional goods and especially due to an increase in vehicle-imports.
Investments
Gross fixed capital formation decreased 1,6 per cent in February. The rolling three-month growth rate shows a decrease of 0,8 per cent from August-October to November-January. After a decline of 4 per cent in December, investments in dwelling services fell 0,7 per cent in January. The rolling three-month decline was 1,5 per cent.
For gross fixed capital formation, there is low availability of monthly information. For petroleum investments, investments in manufacturing, mining and power supply, information on planned investments is used as reported by the companies.
Revisions
As new monthly and quarterly figures are published, retroactive revisions might occur. The statistics used will not normally be subject to backwards revisions, but seasonally adjusted series can still be affected. This is because the basis for the seasonal adjustment changes when new periods are added.
Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, from March 2020 to March 2022, new figures were treated as extreme values, and were not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. The many changes in national accounts figures since February 2020 means that new periods that are now added in the seasonal adjustment, from and including April 2022, can produce larger revisions than normal in the seasonal pattern.
In some areas, new statistics for previous months have been incorporated and the growth in GDP Mainland Norway has been revised up from a decline of 0.2 to a growth of 0.1 per cent in January. In addition, a larger entity within construction has been reclassified into a public enterprise in the source statistics. The reclassification results in a small increase in the public sector.