New figures from the National Accounts show that the gross domestic product (GDP) for mainland Norway decreased from December 2021 to January 2022. Throughout much of 2021, the economy recovered as society reopened, but new Covid restrictions were introduced in December and lasted until the end of January. Several service industries were affected by the restrictions, but the largest contributions to the decline in mainland activity in January came from electricity and fishing. Excluding these industries, the decline in mainland GDP was 0.3 percent.
- Compared with previous periods of restrictions, the decline in January was relatively subdued. In January, most of the decline in GDP comes from conditions other than the pandemic. Electricity and fishing declined, but these figures are usually volatile, says Head of National Accounts, Pål Sletten.
Adjusted for seasonal variations, the production and export volume for petroleum products decreased in January, but due to high prices for natural gas, the production and export value was still very high.
- In the second half of last year, there was a very sharp rise in the price of natural gas. There was record growth in the value of exports and gross domestic product in 2021. Prices have remained high into the new year. Thus, January is another month with historically high levels for nominal GDP and exports, Sletten adds.
Value added in the service industries grew 0.3 percent in January. Activity increased modestly in accommodation and catering, but the level remained low after a sharp fall in December. In addition, value added increased in industries such as professional, scientific and technical services, real estate operations and information and communication. The restrictions in January affected activity in culture, entertainment and other services, business services and transportation. Several of these industries also declined in December. Wholesale and retail trade also fell in January, especially due to low purchases of motor vehicles.
Manufacturing and mining increased 1,5 percent, while production of other goods fell 3.1 percent. The decline can be attributed to electricity and fishing. These industries are affected by non-cyclical conditions, such as volatility in temperatures and weather, which occasionally have a significant effect on monthly national accounts. In addition to the relatively mild weather in January, electricity prices have been very high. The consumption of electric power has thus been low. Activity in the construction industry grew, which dampened the decline in production of other goods.
Public administration activity is projected to decline 0.7 percent in January.
Measured in constant prices, petroleum activities and foreign shipping fell 5.5 percent after rising in December. The total gross domestic product in fixed prices fell 1.6 percent in January.
Consumption
Household consumption fell 3.1 percent in January. Consumption of goods decreased 4.4 percent and contributed most to the overall decline. Car purchases, which have been very high during the pandemic, fell sharply in January. Car purchases are volatile, however, and large deliveries can come in bulk and thus have a strong impact in individual months. Consumption of services decreased 0.9 percent, which is related to the infection control measures that characterized the month. Among other things, the consumption of culture and leisure services fell.
Investments
Gross fixed capital formation decreased by 5.4 percent in January. The rolling three-month growth from August – October to November-January was 3.1 percent.
After strong growth in December, dwelling serviced fell by 1.3 percent in January. In the three-month period November-January, dwelling services were 2.8 percent higher than in the period August-October.
For gross fixed capital formation, there is generally weak access to monthly information. For petroleum investments, investments in manufacturing, mining and power supply information on planned investments as reported by the companiesare used.
Export and import
Total exports in fixed prices fell 8.3 percent in January. Both exports of goods and services declined, but the largest contribution came from the seasonally adjusted export volume in crude oil and natural gas. Exports of oil and gas were seasonally low, but unadjusted, the volume was closer to previous months. Natural gas had a record high price increase in the second half of 2021, and the price remained high in January. The price of crude oil also grew sharply during the month. Thus, the value of petroleum exports was still historically high in January.
Revisions
In connection with new monthly figures, there will be revisions. The statistical basis used for the calculations will not normally be changed for previous months, but seasonally adjusted series can still be revised since the basis for the seasonal adjustment changes when new periods are added.
In some areas, new statistical sources have been incorporated for previous months. The macroeconomic picture, however, remains mostly as previously published.
On Thursday 12 March 2020, the government introduced measures against the spread of the coronavirus in Norway. The seasonal adjustment during the corona crisis is made in such a way that figures from and including March are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine, this is done by specifying March 2020 and subsequent months as extreme values. Statistics Norway's seasonal adjustment is in line with recommendations from Eurostat.