Preliminary national account figures show an annual growth in mainland Norway's GDP of 0.6 per cent from 2023 to 2024, measured in constant prices. Through 2023, there was close to zero growth in the mainland economy, but through 2024 activity has grown slightly. However, a carry-over effect from 2022 means that the annual growth is fairly like the last two years.
– Demand from central and local government, high petroleum investment, and growth in mainland exports pulled up the mainland economy. A decline in investment in residential and commercial buildings, as well as subdued growth in private consumption, pulled in the opposite direction, says Pål Sletten, head of the National Accounts section at Statistics Norway.
Developments in 2024 were influenced by economic policy. While fiscal policy contributed to pulling up activity through increased public demand, monetary policy contributed to cooling the economy. This is reflected in differences between different industries.
– Throughout both 2023 and 2024, investments in dwellings have fallen sharply. This led to a decline in construction and in the building materials industry. At the same time, the petroleum-related supplier industry has done well, says Sletten.
Employment increased slightly in 2024. The number of employed persons increased by 0.6 per cent, while the number of hours worked increased by 0.2 per cent.
The Norwegian economy has been characterised by unusually high inflation in recent years, but it slowed markedly in 2024. The broadest measure of inflation is the gross product deflator for mainland Norway. It is estimated to have risen 3.5 per cent from 2023 to 2024, down from 4.2 per cent the year before. The price of total Norwegian exports fell 4.3 per cent, while the price of imports rose 2 per cent.
Real wage growth in 2024
Accrued annual wage growth is preliminarily estimated to be 5.7 per cent in 2024. This is somewhat higher than the rise in the consumer price index, which is estimated at 3.1 per cent. Thus, there was real wage growth for the first time since 2021.
The increase in labour costs in manufacturing was slightly stronger than the increase in operating profit. This means that the labour cost share in manufacturing rose slightly, from 71 per cent in 2023 to 72 per cent in 2024. The labour cost share in manufacturing was thus still lower than normal.
Construction and fishing contributed negatively
Value added in construction fell 3.9 per cent in 2024, seasonally adjusted and measured in constant prices. The industry has developed negatively every quarter since early 2023, and the decline accelerated in 2024, largely due to reduced housing construction.
At the same time, value added in fishing and aquaculture decreased by 4.9 per cent, mainly due to a sharp fall in traditional fishing. The decline in fishing, which is due to reduced quotas in 2024, pulled down the growth in mainland GDP Norway almost 0.1 percentage points.
High activity on the Norwegian continental shelf
In the petroleum activities, value added grew by 5 per cent, measured in constant prices. This is partly because natural gas extraction was at a record high in 2024. Due to lower prices of natural gas and crude oil, the value of value added in the extraction industry decreased by 6.6 per cent, compared with the previous year.
Gross fixed capital formation in oil and gas extraction, including pipeline transport, grew as much as 9.6 per cent in 2024. This was due to continuous investments to extend the lifetime of the fields on the Norwegian shelf, as well as the development of new fields. There was also a high level of activity in exploration, shutdown and removal.
Growth in the mainland economy
With some exceptions, such as construction and fishing, value added grew in most industries in the mainland economy.
The overall growth in mainland GDP Norway was mainly pulled up by increased activity in general government, including especially defence and health and care services. In addition, the production and distribution of electric power grew significantly. According to Statistics Norway's electricity statistics, total electricity production in 2024 was the highest ever measured.
The high level of activity on the Norwegian continental shelf also contributed to increasing the value added in manufacturing and service industries in mainland Norway that supply goods and services to the petroleum extraction industries, such as the construction of oil platforms and modules and the production of fabricated metal products, as well as services related to oil and gas.
Growth in consumption in 2024
Total household consumption grew by 1.3 per cent from 2023 to 2024. Consumption of goods increased 0.8 per cent, while consumption of services increased 1.5 per cent.
The growth in consumption of services was mainly due to an increase in leisure services, while most of the annual growth in the consumption of goods was due to increased consumption of cars and electricity. However, the growth in car consumption must be seen in the context of particularly low car purchases in 2023. Direct purchases abroad by resident households grew 8.1 per cent in 2024, and direct purchases by non-residents in Norway grew as much as 14.1 per cent.
Reduced trade surplus
According to preliminary figures, Norway's trade balance ended with a surplus of 722 billion NOK in 2024. Thus, the surplus has decreased by about 67 billion NOK from 2023, and further since the record high level in 2022. The value of total exports in 2024 was 2,472 billion NOK, while total imports amounted to 1,750 billion NOK.
The price of energy goods has fallen since high levels in 2022 and remained at lower levels through 2023 and 2024. The export value of crude oil and natural gas fell by 2.2 per cent. Nevertheless, the value of total Norwegian exports rose by 1.1 per cent in 2024, and the volume increased by 5.7 per cent. Both exports of services and exports of ships, platforms and aircraft pulled up.
Since the Norwegian krone depreciated against the value of the currencies of Norway's largest trading partners during 2024, Norwegian goods became relatively cheaper on the world market. This worsened Norway’s terms of trade. The total volume growth for imports was 3.7 per cent, while the value growth was stronger, with an increase of 5.7 per cent.
Revisions
In connection with new monthly and quarterly figures, there will be retrospective revisions. New information is sometimes incorporated into the calculation of certain national accounts figures. In addition, the seasonal factors will change as new periods are added.
In some areas, new statistics have been incorporated into the figures since the last publication on 21 November. The incorporation of new information on public finances has led to a downward revision of the growth in gross public fixed capital formation of 3.6 percentage points in 2023, and quarterly revisions between +0.5 and -2.6 percentage points in the period from Q1 to Q3 2024, seasonally adjusted. In addition, gross investments in oil and gas extraction have been revised down significantly in Q3 2024 due to the incorporation of information from Statistics Norway's investment survey for oil and gas extraction.
Other main variables are less revised, and the annual growth in mainland Norway GDP has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points in 2023, while the growth in Q1 2024 is down 0.2 percentage points, seasonally adjusted.