Preliminary national account figures show that mainland Norway's GDP increased by 1.0 per cent from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first quarter 2025, seasonally and calendar adjusted and measured in constant prices. This is the strongest quarterly growth since early 2022.
– For almost two years, the Norwegian economy has been weaker than normal, but the underlying growth appears to have increased somewhat through 2024 and into 2025, says Pål Sletten, head of the National Accounts section at Statistics Norway.
The growth was boosted by high electricity production because of unusually high water reservoirs, as well as strong growth in retail trade, a sharp upswing in car purchases before announced tax changes, as well as other household goods. Manufacturing and fishing also contributed positively after a decline in the previous quarter.
– Temporary and random fluctuations can impact growth from one quarter to the next. Part of the increase in the first quarter should be viewed in light of the weak development in the previous quarter, says Sletten.
Despite weak economic development since 2022, employment has remained high and has grown steadily since the end of the coronavirus pandemic. Preliminary figures show that the number of employed persons and hours worked grew 0.4 per cent in 2025.
Growth in the mainland economy
The overall growth in mainland Norway's GDP was mainly driven by increased value added in electricity, gas and hot water supply. According to Statistics Norway's electricity statistics, power production in Norway was at a record high in 2024, largely due to increased hydropower production. High reservoir levels contributed to further growth in hydropower production in the first quarter of 2025.
Increased volume in traditional fishing also contributed to the growth in the first quarter, after a decline in the previous quarter. Traditional fishing and electric power are industries that are affected by non-cyclical conditions, and they usually fluctuate quite a bit over time. Excluding fishing and electricity, mainland GDP growth would have been 0.8 per cent in the first quarter.
Increased activity in the retail trade also contributed significantly to the quarterly growth. The growth in retail trade, which includes retail, wholesale and motor vehicle trade, can be seen in connection with a sharp increase in households' purchases of cars and other goods.
Value added in manufacturing also increased. Refined petroleum products, chemicals and pharmaceuticals were the main contributors. These industries had low activity in the fourth quarter of last year, partly because of shutdowns at some large enterprises.
Continued increase in public consumption
There has been steady growth in consumption in general government through 2024, and this continued in the first quarter of 2025. Consumption in general government consists largely of the services produced by the public sector itself and increases in health and care services pulled up mainland Norway's GDP in the first quarter. However, investments in general government decreased in the first quarter. This must be seen in the context of high investments in previous quarters, including deliveries of fighter aircrafts.
Increase in Household Car Purchases
Household consumption increased by 1.6 per cent from fourth quarter 2024 to first quarter 2025, measured in constant prices. Consumption of goods increased 2 per cent, while consumption of services increased 0.5 per cent.
The increase in consumption of goods was related to many commodity groups, but it was especially car consumption that contributed to the growth. From 1 April, a tax increase was introduced on hybrid cars, which led to an increase in car registrations in the months ahead.
Excluding car purchases, the growth in household consumption would have been 1.4 per cent, pulled up by clothing and footwear as well as furniture and appliances.
Norwegians' consumption abroad increased 3.0 per cent, while foreigners' consumption in Norway fell 4.2 per cent.
High gas prices increased the trade surplus
Oil and gas production, measured in constant prices, has declined since the third quarter of last year and continued to fall in the first quarter of 2025. The decrease is primarily driven by lower oil production, although gas production has also seen a slight decline. As a result, total GDP, including oil and gas activities, remained flat in the first quarter, despite growth in the mainland economy.
At the same time, the sales value of natural gas has remained high, driven by increased gas prices. According to Statistics Norway's external trade statistics, the price increase is due to low gas inventories in Europe after a cold winter and weak production of renewable energy. This led to an increase in the total export value of 6.8 per cent, although the export volume fell by 1.9 per cent.
Imports of goods and services fell in both value and volume, and the sum of high export value and lower imports led to a trade surplus of 240 billion in NOK in the first quarter, unadjusted. This is 57 billion NOK higher than a year ago, and the highest level since the first quarter of 2023.
Revisions
In connection with new monthly and quarterly figures, there will be retrospective revisions. New information is sometimes incorporated into the calculation of certain national accounts figures. In addition, the seasonal factors will change backwards when new periods are added.
In some areas, new statistics have been incorporated into the figures since the last publication on 11 February. New figures for external trade for the full year 2024 show a downward revision in exports of crude oil and natural gas, while imports of both goods and services have been revised up. New information on external trade and public finances also contributes to revisions in the estimates for gross fixed capital formation. New figures for 2024 show a smaller decline in total gross fixed capital formation than previously estimated. In addition, growth in total household consumption in 2024 has been revised up by 0.3 percentage points.
Other main variables have been less revised, and the annual growth in mainland GDP in Norway in 2024 is the same as in the previous release. The course of events through last year has also been little revised.