Analyses, articles and publications
- Economic Survey 1/2023
The year 2022 was characterised by high inflation and a rebound in economic activity following the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. At the end of 2021, the omicron variant and new infection control measures resulted in a renewed fall in economic activity. However, with the lifting of the last infection control measures, mainland GDP picked up strongly with effect from March 2022.
- Economic trends for Møre og Romsdal
The economic prospects in the county of Møre og Romsdal is, like in the nation generally, characterized by the fact that Norway is in an abnormal economic situation, where high interest rates, high inflation and lower demand from our trading partners reduce activity.
- Norwegian economy facing turning point
Growth in economic activity will be slightly lower, unemployment is likely to increase and inflation will see a rapid decline in 2023.
- Economic Survey 4/2022
Prior to the outbreak of the Covid pandemic in 2020, the Norwegian economy was close to cyclically neutral. The entire downturn following the pandemic in 2020 was recouped in the autumn of 2021, but the omicron variant and subsequent infection control measures resulted in a new fall in mainland GDP in December 2021 and January 2022. The reopening of society in late January and early February this year boosted activity sharply in March.
- 3% interest peak in the New Year
The Norwegian economy is characterised by low unemployment, high consumer price growth, falling house prices and rising interest rates. In the short term, a moderate decline in the economy is expected, but mainland GDP is nevertheless expected to remain cyclically neutral in the next few years.
- Economic Survey 3/2022
In November 2021, the decline in economic activity during the pandemic had been recouped. In December and in January 2022 mainland GDP slumped again as a consequence of new infection control measures in connection with the omicron variety. Activity picked up strongly again in February and March, and in March 2022 was roughly cyclically neutral.
- High inflation leads to downturn in Norwegian economy
Widespread price growth, increased interest rates and weaker growth prospects internationally will lead to an economic downturn in Norway in the next few years. However, the key policy rate will rise by a further 1 percentage point this year in an attempt to curb the high inflation.
- Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy
We analyse how fiscal policy affects both the macroeconomy and the industry structure, using a multi-sector macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy with an inflation targeting monetary policy.
- Economic Survey 2/2022
Almost the entire decline in economic activity during the pandemic was recouped in 2021. In December last year and January this year infection control measures in connection with the omicron variant of the coronavirus led to a fall in mainland GDP, but no more than 1.5 per cent for the two months combined. The reopening of society in late January and early February caused activity to pick up again, and in March mainland GDP was only slightly lower than what we regard as a trend level for the economy.
- High inflation and higher interest rates set to curb growth in the Norwegian economy
Norway is heading towards an economic boom. Meanwhile, inflation is at a record high. A rapid rise in interest rates can therefore be expected in the period ahead. Combined with reduced prospects globally, this will slow economic growth in Norway.
- Why has the Norwegian krone exchange rate been persistently weak? A fully simultaneous VAR approach
We identify variables that help explain the persistent weakness of the Norwegian krone since 2016 within a fully simultaneous model of the underlying process driving the krone-euro exchange rate.
- Ocean satellite account. Description of methods and sources
The satellite accounts for the ocean are a pilot and are co-financed by the Research Council of Norway and Statistics Norway (SSB). It is part of the fourth phase of the OECD project «Future of the Ocean Economy» in which Norway has participated since the beginning in 2013.
- Economic development through Covid-19. An updated comparison of Norway, Sweden and Denmark
It is difficult to distinguish the impact of the pandemic from the impact of infection control measures, self-regulation among households, and disruptions to foreign trade. This report attempts to shed light on the question by comparing the macroeconomic outcomes in Norway, Sweden and Denmark. The three Scandinavian countries chose different infection control strategies in 2020: While Norway and Denmark quickly introduced strict measures, Sweden chose a milder line.
- Covid-19, the economic costs of the pandemic and the role of fiscal policy
In this report, we compare the wealth creation in a benchmark scenario for the period 2020–2023 as it appears at the time of writing – at the end of January 2022 – with Statistics Norway’s projections for the Norwegian economy published at the end of 2019, i.e. before the pandemic.
- Economic Survey 1/2022
In the course of 2021, almost the entire decline in economic activity during the pandemic was recouped. Activity in November last year was close to what we regard as a trend level for the economy.
- Ukraine war creating uncertainty in growing Norwegian economy
The Norwegian economy is starting to return to a normal level of activity following the further reopening of society. However, the war in Ukraine is significantly curbing the growth outlook for our trading partners in Europe, which in turn is having a negative impact on the Norwegian economy.
- Economic Survey 4/2021
Activity in the Norwegian economy picked up considerably through the summer and autumn. As a result of lower infection rates, increased vaccination and the easing of national restrictions, mainland GDP had already rebounded by June to the same level as before the pandemic struck in March last year.
- Omicron creating uncertainty for the Norwegian economy
Mainland GDP has experienced substantial growth in recent months, and the economy is now approaching what we consider to be a normal level. Although the Omicron variant is creating uncertainty about further developments, we assume that its negative effect on the economy will be limited and temporary.
- Ripple effects of the petroleum industry in the Norwegian economy
This report documents our calculations of how much of the deliveries to the petroleum industry are supplied by other domestic industries and how much is imported. We make a distinction between direct and indirect deliveries, and between their use for investments and for intermediate consumption of operations.
- Economic Survey 3/2021
The reopening of society is well under way, and activity in the Norwegian economy has increased in recent months. After the first lockdown, mainland GDP fell by over 10 per cent from February to April last year, according to the monthly national accounts.
- The economy is improving, but the crisis is not over
The reopening of society is well underway, and the upswing in the Norwegian economy continues. The COVID-19 pandemic will nevertheless continue to impact on the economy for a long time to come. The key policy rate is expected to increase gradually to 1.75 per cent in 2024.
- Economic Survey 2/2021
Vaccination against COVID-19 has come a long way, and the re-opening of society will give a considerable boost to economic activity in Norway. Following the first lockdown in March 2020, mainland GDP fell by over10 per cent from February to April last year, according to the monthly national accounts.
- Normalisation of the Norwegian economy on the horizon
The vaccination of the population is progressing well, and the reopening of society will give a significant boost to economic activity in Norway. The first interest rate hike will most likely be in September.
- Economic Survey 1/2021
The spread of the COVID-19 virus and infection control measures continue to mark economic developments in Norway. The first lockdown in March 2020 led to mainland GDP falling by around 11 per cent from February to April last year, according to the monthly national accounts.
Older analyses, articles and publications for subtopic business cycles.