Business cycles

Statistics

Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying
Current data on the business cycle for manufacturing, mining and quarrying
Economic trends
Describe the economic situation in Norway and abroad, and give estimates of the main economic variables for the current year and the three subsequent years.
Index of industrial production
Monitors the development of added value in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity
Producer price index
Measures the price of domestic produced goods sold both to the Norwegian and foreign market
Commodity price index for the industrial sector
The statistics has been discontinued
Index of orders in manufacturing
The statistics has been discontinued

Analyses, articles and publications

Showing 10 of 59

  1. Ripple effects of the petroleum industry

    In this report, we have estimated the extent to which the petroleum industry's purchases of goods and services generate direct deliveries from various industries in the Norwegian economy, as well as indirect deliveries from domestic subcontractors. We distinguish between goods and services intended for investments and those for ongoing operations (intermediate consumption) within the petroleum industry.

  2. Commodity Price Shocks and Business Cycles in a Resource-Rich Economy

    Commodity price shocks can be a key driver of business cycles in resource-rich small open economies.

  3. Economic Survey 1/2026

    Wealth creation in the Norwegian economy has picked up markedly since mid-2024. At the same time, we have seen a moderate increase in unemployment.

  4. Inflation remains high this year

    The war in the Middle East is resulting in an escalation of costs globally and in higher import prices here in Norway. This, in conjunction with the high wage growth of recent years, means that it will take a while for inflation to fall to the inflation target of 2 per cent.

  5. Economic Survey 4/2025

    Wealth creation in the Norwegian economy has picked up appreciably since mid-2024, while at the same time unemployment has risen.

  6. Norwegian economy proceeding at a normal pace

    Increased household consumption and higher public demand will boost economic activity in the near term. However, low levels of residential construction and reduced petroleum investment will result in consistent growth in the Norwegian economy.

  7. Decomposing the Output Gap

    This paper introduces two methodological improvements to the Hodrick– Prescott (HP) filter for decomposing GDP into trend and cycle components.

  8. Economic Survey 3/2025

    After a period of weak growth in 2023 and 2024, wealth creation in the Norwegian economy has picked up appreciably so far this year. Unemployment has increased concurrently.

  9. The Norwegian economic upturn continues

    So far this year, the Norwegian economy has been in a clear upturn. In the next few years, higher real wages, lower interest rates and increased public demand will boost economic activity.

  10. Modeling exchange rate, inflation, and interest rate in a small open economy

    Building on a New Keynesian rational expectations framework, we develop a structural empirical model that jointly determines the real exchange rate, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in a small open economy.

Older analyses, articles and publications
for subtopic business cycles.