Business cycles

Statistics

Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying
Current data on the business cycle for manufacturing, mining and quarrying
Economic trends
Describe the economic situation in Norway and abroad, and give estimates of the main economic variables for the current year and the three subsequent years.
Index of industrial production
Monitors the development of added value in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity
Producer price index
Measures the price of domestic produced goods sold both to the Norwegian and foreign market
Commodity price index for the industrial sector
The statistics has been discontinued
Index of orders in manufacturing
The statistics has been discontinued

Analyses, articles and publications

Showing 33 of 33
  1. NORA — A Microfounded Model for Fiscal Policy Analysis in Norway

    NORA is one of the economic models in the portfolio of models maintained by the Research Department at Statistics Norway. The model aims to capture features of the Norwegian economy to aid in the analysis of fiscal policy in Norway.

  2. Economic Survey 4/2023

    The Norwegian economy is characterised by high inflation and interest rate hikes. Mainland growth has been below trend. At the same time, pressures in the labour market have been relatively high, but these, too, have abated somewhat compared with last year.

  3. Wage and price formation as a stabilizing mechanism in a model with pattern wage baraining

    In Norway, national wage formation is based on pattern wage bargaining, where collective bargaining in the wage-leading manufacturing sector defines a norm for the negotiations that take place elsewhere in the economy (wage-following).

  4. Challenges for wage formation and the Norwegian economy

    On 30 March 2023 Statistics Norway was assigned by the Wage Leader Model Committee to use modelling to analyse the consequences for wage formation and the Norwegian economy of changes in macroeconomic conditions.

  5. Interest rate cuts next year due to abrupt halt in house building

    Higher interest rates and increased costs for housing developers have curbed housing investment, which will lead to reduced economic growth in Norway.

  6. Economic Survey 3/2023

    Last year was characterised by high inflation, interest rate hikes and a rebound in economic activity following the pandemic. For a little over a year, activity in the Norwegian economy has been close to or slightly higher than what we regard as a trend level, but growth has been flagging recently.

  7. Prospects of lower inflation

    Inflation is on the way down, and interest rates are set to peak soon. However, households’ real disposable income has weakened, and it appears that next year the interest burden will reach its highest level since the 1990s.

  8. Economic Survey 2/2023

    Last year was characterised by high inflation, interest rate hikes and a rebound in economic activity following the Covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. Growth in the Norwegian economy has slowed so far this year, and mainland GDP is close to what we regard as a trend level. The key policy rate has been raised by 0.5 percentage point this year and is currently 3.25 per cent.

  9. Weak krone means another year of real wage decline

    The unusually weak krone lately means that it will be some time before the target inflation rate is reached. The consequence is likely to be another year of real wage decline and two more interest rate hikes.

  10. Economic Survey 1/2023

    The year 2022 was characterised by high inflation and a rebound in economic activity following the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. At the end of 2021, the omicron variant and new infection control measures resulted in a renewed fall in economic activity. However, with the lifting of the last infection control measures, mainland GDP picked up strongly with effect from March 2022.

  11. Economic trends for Møre og Romsdal

    The economic prospects in the county of Møre og Romsdal is, like in the nation generally, characterized by the fact that Norway is in an abnormal economic situation, where high interest rates, high inflation and lower demand from our trading partners reduce activity.

  12. Norwegian economy facing turning point

    Growth in economic activity will be slightly lower, unemployment is likely to increase and inflation will see a rapid decline in 2023.

  13. Economic Survey 4/2022

    Prior to the outbreak of the Covid pandemic in 2020, the Norwegian economy was close to cyclically neutral. The entire downturn following the pandemic in 2020 was recouped in the autumn of 2021, but the omicron variant and subsequent infection control measures resulted in a new fall in mainland GDP in December 2021 and January 2022. The reopening of society in late January and early February this year boosted activity sharply in March.

  14. 3% interest peak in the New Year

    The Norwegian economy is characterised by low unemployment, high consumer price growth, falling house prices and rising interest rates. In the short term, a moderate decline in the economy is expected, but mainland GDP is nevertheless expected to remain cyclically neutral in the next few years.

  15. Economic Survey 3/2022

    In November 2021, the decline in economic activity during the pandemic had been recouped. In December and in January 2022 mainland GDP slumped again as a consequence of new infection control measures in connection with the omicron variety. Activity picked up strongly again in February and March, and in March 2022 was roughly cyclically neutral.

  16. High inflation leads to downturn in Norwegian economy

    Widespread price growth, increased interest rates and weaker growth prospects internationally will lead to an economic downturn in Norway in the next few years. However, the key policy rate will rise by a further 1 percentage point this year in an attempt to curb the high inflation.

  17. Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy

    We analyse how fiscal policy affects both the macroeconomy and the industry structure, using a multi-sector macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy with an inflation targeting monetary policy.

  18. Economic Survey 2/2022

    Almost the entire decline in economic activity ­during the pandemic was recouped in 2021. In December last year and January this year infection control measures in connection with the omicron variant of the coronavirus led to a fall in mainland GDP, but no more than 1.5 per cent for the two months combined. The reopening of society in late January and early February caused activity to pick up again, and in March mainland GDP was only slightly lower than what we regard as a trend level for the economy.

  19. High inflation and higher interest rates set to curb growth in the Norwegian economy

    Norway is heading towards an economic boom. Meanwhile, inflation is at a record high. A rapid rise in interest rates can therefore be expected in the period ahead. Combined with reduced prospects globally, this will slow economic growth in Norway.

  20. Why has the Norwegian krone exchange rate been persistently weak? A fully simultaneous VAR approach

    We identify variables that help explain the persistent weakness of the Norwegian krone since 2016 within a fully simultaneous model of the underlying process driving the krone-euro exchange rate.

  21. Ocean satellite account. Description of methods and sources

    The satellite accounts for the ocean are a pilot and are co-financed by the Research Council of Norway and Statistics Norway (SSB). It is part of the fourth phase of the OECD project «Future of the Ocean Economy» in which Norway has participated since the beginning in 2013.

  22. Economic development through Covid-19. An updated comparison of Norway, Sweden and Denmark

    It is difficult to distinguish the impact of the pandemic from the impact of infection control measures, self-regulation among households, and disruptions to foreign trade. This report attempts to shed light on the question by comparing the macroeconomic outcomes in Norway, Sweden and Denmark. The three Scandinavian countries chose different infection control strategies in 2020: While Norway and Denmark quickly introduced strict measures, Sweden chose a milder line.

  23. Covid-19, the economic costs of the pandemic and the role of fiscal policy

    In this report, we compare the wealth creation in a benchmark scenario for the period 2020–2023 as it appears at the time of writing – at the end of January 2022 – with Statistics Norway’s projections for the Norwegian economy published at the end of 2019, i.e. before the pandemic.

  24. Economic Survey 1/2022

    In the course of 2021, almost the entire decline in economic activity during the pandemic was recouped. Activity in November last year was close to what we regard as a trend level for the economy.

  25. Ukraine war creating uncertainty in growing Norwegian economy

    The Norwegian economy is starting to return to a normal level of activity following the further reopening of society. However, the war in Ukraine is significantly curbing the growth outlook for our trading partners in Europe, which in turn is having a negative impact on the Norwegian economy.

  26. Economic Survey 4/2021

    Activity in the Norwegian economy picked up considerably through the summer and autumn. As a result of lower infection rates, increased vaccination and the easing of national restrictions, mainland GDP had already rebounded by June to the same level as before the pandemic struck in March last year.

  27. Omicron creating uncertainty for the Norwegian economy

    Mainland GDP has experienced substantial growth in recent months, and the economy is now approaching what we consider to be a normal level. Although the Omicron variant is creating uncertainty about further developments, we assume that its negative effect on the economy will be limited and temporary.

  28. Ripple effects of the petroleum industry in the Norwegian economy

    This report documents our calculations of how much of the deliveries to the petroleum industry are supplied by other domestic industries and how much is imported. We make a distinction between direct and indirect deliveries, and between their use for investments and for intermediate consumption of operations.

  29. Economic Survey 3/2021

    The reopening of society is well under way, and activity in the Norwegian economy has increased in recent months. After the first lockdown, mainland GDP fell by over 10 per cent from February to April last year, according to the monthly national accounts.

  30. The economy is improving, but the crisis is not over

    The reopening of society is well underway, and the upswing in the Norwegian economy continues. The COVID-19 pandemic will nevertheless continue to impact on the economy for a long time to come. The key policy rate is expected to increase gradually to 1.75 per cent in 2024.

  31. Economic Survey 2/2021

    Vaccination against COVID-19 has come a long way, and the re-opening of society will give a considerable boost to economic activity in Norway. Following the first lockdown in March 2020, mainland GDP fell by over10 per cent from February to April last year, according to the monthly national accounts.

  32. Normalisation of the Norwegian economy on the horizon

    The vaccination of the population is progressing well, and the reopening of society will give a significant boost to economic activity in Norway. The first interest rate hike will most likely be in September.

  33. Economic Survey 1/2021

    The spread of the COVID-19 virus and infection control measures continue to mark economic developments in Norway. The first lockdown in March 2020 led to mainland GDP falling by around 11 per cent from February to April last year, according to the monthly national accounts.

Older analyses, articles and publications for subtopic business cycles.