338866

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statistikk

2018-06-26T08:00:00.000Z

Population;Population

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Population projections

Updated

26 June 2018

Next update

Not yet determined

approx. 6

million inhabitants expected in Norway in 2040 (main alternative)

Infographic. Population projections 2018-2060. Click on image for larger version.

See more tables on this subject

Table 1
Population projections. Key figures

Population projections. Key figures
	Registered 2017¹	Projected main alternative (MMMM)²
	Registered 2017¹	2020	2040	2060
¹Total population registered per January 1 2018.
²Each alternative is described by four letters in the following order: fertility, life expectancy, internal migration and immigration. M = medium, L = low and H = high. As projected numbers are inherently uncertain, they have been rounded.
³The life expectancy estimates are somewhat lower in the projections than in the genereal population statistics, as the projections estimate life expectancy based on age at the end of the year and not at time of death. Furthermore, the formula used to estimate death rates is also slightly different, as we employ an exponential model in the projections.
⁴The numbers for immigration and emigration in the projections do not include multiple moves to and from Norway during the same year for an individual. The numbers are thus lower than the immigration and emigration numbers in the general population statistics. The numbers for net migration are, however, comparable.
Total population	5 295 619	5 367 700	6 056 200	6 510 100
Deaths	40 774	40 800	53 600	63 000
Life expectancy at birth men³	80.9	81.6	85.4	88.4
Life expectancy at birth women³	84.3	84.7	87.8	90.3
Live births	56 633	57 400	63 900	65 900
Total fertility rate	1.62	1.60	1.76	1.76
Immigration⁴	56 400	51 400	48 900	49 000
Emigration⁴	35 058	32 200	31 600	31 900
Net migration	21 342	19 200	17 300	17 100

Table 2
Population January 1. First year registered, then projected in three alternatives to 2100

Population January 1. First year registered, then projected in three alternatives to 2100¹
	Main alternative (MMMM)	Low national growth LLML	High national growth HHMH
¹Each alternative is described by four letters in the following order: fertility, life expectancy, internal migration and immigration. M = medium, L = low and H = high. As projected numbers are inherently uncertain, they have been rounded to the nearest thousand.
2018	5 295 619	5 295 619	5 295 619
2019	5 332 000	5 322 000	5 340 000
2020	5 368 000	5 347 000	5 387 000
2021	5 403 000	5 371 000	5 436 000
2022	5 440 000	5 396 000	5 486 000
2023	5 477 000	5 421 000	5 537 000
2024	5 514 000	5 445 000	5 588 000
2025	5 551 000	5 470 000	5 641 000
2026	5 588 000	5 494 000	5 694 000
2027	5 625 000	5 518 000	5 748 000
2028	5 662 000	5 541 000	5 804 000
2029	5 699 000	5 564 000	5 860 000
2030	5 735 000	5 585 000	5 917 000
2031	5 771 000	5 606 000	5 975 000
2032	5 807 000	5 625 000	6 032 000
2033	5 841 000	5 644 000	6 090 000
2034	5 874 000	5 661 000	6 148 000
2035	5 907 000	5 678 000	6 205 000
2036	5 938 000	5 693 000	6 263 000
2037	5 969 000	5 707 000	6 320 000
2038	5 999 000	5 720 000	6 377 000
2039	6 028 000	5 733 000	6 434 000
2040	6 056 000	5 745 000	6 492 000
2041	6 084 000	5 755 000	6 549 000
2042	6 111 000	5 765 000	6 607 000
2043	6 137 000	5 774 000	6 664 000
2044	6 162 000	5 782 000	6 722 000
2045	6 187 000	5 789 000	6 780 000
2046	6 211 000	5 795 000	6 839 000
2047	6 235 000	5 800 000	6 898 000
2048	6 258 000	5 805 000	6 957 000
2049	6 281 000	5 808 000	7 018 000
2050	6 303 000	5 811 000	7 079 000
2051	6 325 000	5 812 000	7 141 000
2052	6 346 000	5 813 000	7 204 000
2053	6 367 000	5 813 000	7 268 000
2054	6 388 000	5 813 000	7 334 000
2055	6 409 000	5 812 000	7 400 000
2056	6 429 000	5 811 000	7 468 000
2057	6 450 000	5 809 000	7 537 000
2058	6 470 000	5 807 000	7 607 000
2059	6 490 000	5 804 000	7 678 000
2060	6 510 000	5 801 000	7 750 000
2061	6 530 000	5 798 000	7 824 000
2062	6 550 000	5 794 000	7 898 000
2063	6 570 000	5 790 000	7 974 000
2064	6 589 000	5 786 000	8 051 000
2065	6 609 000	5 781 000	8 129 000
2066	6 629 000	5 777 000	8 209 000
2067	6 649 000	5 772 000	8 290 000
2068	6 669 000	5 767 000	8 372 000
2069	6 690 000	5 762 000	8 455 000
2070	6 710 000	5 757 000	8 541 000
2071	6 731 000	5 752 000	8 627 000
2072	6 752 000	5 746 000	8 715 000
2073	6 773 000	5 740 000	8 805 000
2074	6 794 000	5 733 000	8 896 000
2075	6 815 000	5 726 000	8 988 000
2076	6 836 000	5 719 000	9 081 000
2077	6 856 000	5 710 000	9 175 000
2078	6 876 000	5 701 000	9 271 000
2079	6 896 000	5 691 000	9 368 000
2080	6 916 000	5 680 000	9 465 000
2081	6 935 000	5 668 000	9 565 000
2082	6 954 000	5 655 000	9 665 000
2083	6 972 000	5 642 000	9 766 000
2084	6 990 000	5 629 000	9 869 000
2085	7 008 000	5 614 000	9 973 000
2086	7 026 000	5 599 000	10 078 000
2087	7 044 000	5 584 000	10 185 000
2088	7 062 000	5 568 000	10 293 000
2089	7 080 000	5 552 000	10 402 000
2090	7 098 000	5 536 000	10 514 000
2091	7 116 000	5 519 000	10 627 000
2092	7 135 000	5 503 000	10 742 000
2093	7 154 000	5 486 000	10 860 000
2094	7 173 000	5 469 000	10 979 000
2095	7 193 000	5 452 000	11 100 000
2096	7 213 000	5 435 000	11 223 000
2097	7 233 000	5 418 000	11 348 000
2098	7 253 000	5 400 000	11 474 000
2099	7 274 000	5 383 000	11 603 000
2100	7 294 000	5 365 000	11 733 000

Table 3
Population in the municipalities January 1. First year registered. Projected in three alternatives in 2040

Population in the municipalities January 1. First year registered. Projected in three alternatives in 2040¹
	2018 Registered	2040
	2018 Registered	Main alternative (MMMM)	Low national growth LLML	High national growth HHMH
¹Each alternative is described by four letters in the following order: fertility, life expectancy, internal migration and immigration. M = medium, L = low and H = high. As projected numbers are inherently uncertain, they have been rounded to the nearest hundred.
0101 Halden	31 037	36 400	34 600	38 600
0104 Moss	32 588	38 000	36 100	40 500
0105 Sarpsborg	55 543	62 200	59 200	66 100
0106 Fredrikstad	80 977	98 100	93 300	104 300
0111 Hvaler	4 540	4 500	4 300	4 700
0118 Aremark	1 399	1 200	1 100	1 200
0119 Marker	3 567	3 400	3 200	3 600
0121 Rømskog	682	800	800	800
0122 Trøgstad	5 337	5 900	5 600	6 300
0123 Spydeberg	5 853	7 300	7 000	7 800
0124 Askim	15 810	18 400	17 500	19 600
0125 Eidsberg	11 414	12 900	12 300	13 800
0127 Skiptvet	3 831	4 700	4 400	5 000
0128 Rakkestad	8 202	8 800	8 400	9 300
0135 Råde	7 465	8 100	7 700	8 700
0136 Rygge	16 083	19 500	18 500	20 700
0137 Våler (Østfold)	5 471	8 800	8 400	9 400
0138 Hobøl	5 621	8 300	7 900	8 900
0211 Vestby	17 486	22 900	21 700	24 500
0213 Ski	30 880	34 500	32 800	36 900
0214 Ås	20 084	34 000	32 200	36 600
0215 Frogn	15 735	15 100	14 400	16 100
0216 Nesodden	19 287	21 900	20 800	23 400
0217 Oppegård	27 178	29 800	28 300	31 900
0219 Bærum	125 454	143 700	136 000	154 500
0220 Asker	60 926	68 400	64 700	73 600
0221 Aurskog-Høland	16 390	19 700	18 700	21 000
0226 Sørum	17 980	25 300	24 000	27 000
0227 Fet	11 663	14 400	13 700	15 300
0228 Rælingen	17 874	22 200	21 100	23 700
0229 Enebakk	10 945	11 400	10 800	12 100
0230 Lørenskog	38 670	52 800	50 100	56 500
0231 Skedsmo	54 178	65 900	62 600	70 400
0233 Nittedal	23 545	28 100	26 700	30 000
0234 Gjerdrum	6 704	8 000	7 700	8 600
0235 Ullensaker	36 576	53 000	50 400	56 600
0236 Nes (Akershus)	21 681	26 200	24 900	27 900
0237 Eidsvoll	24 647	31 000	29 500	33 000
0238 Nannestad	13 240	17 400	16 500	18 500
0239 Hurdal	2 903	3 100	2 900	3 300
0301 Oslo kommune	673 469	815 500	773 900	878 700
0402 Kongsvinger	17 934	20 200	19 200	21 500
0403 Hamar	30 930	36 800	35 000	39 300
0412 Ringsaker	34 151	37 100	35 200	39 500
0415 Løten	7 615	8 100	7 700	8 600
0417 Stange	20 646	24 300	23 000	25 800
0418 Nord-Odal	5 097	5 500	5 200	5 900
0419 Sør-Odal	7 884	9 000	8 500	9 600
0420 Eidskog	6 142	6 000	5 700	6 400
0423 Grue	4 740	4 400	4 200	4 700
0425 Åsnes	7 279	7 400	7 000	7 800
0426 Våler (Hedmark)	3 680	3 200	3 000	3 400
0427 Elverum	21 123	25 000	23 600	26 800
0428 Trysil	6 567	6 200	5 800	6 600
0429 Åmot	4 480	5 300	5 000	5 700
0430 Stor-Elvdal	2 490	2 100	2 000	2 200
0432 Rendalen	1 827	1 600	1 500	1 700
0434 Engerdal	1 294	900	900	1 000
0436 Tolga	1 553	1 400	1 300	1 500
0437 Tynset	5 605	6 500	6 200	7 000
0438 Alvdal	2 424	2 500	2 400	2 700
0439 Folldal	1 569	1 300	1 200	1 300
0441 Os (Hedmark)	1 936	1 800	1 700	2 000
0501 Lillehammer	27 938	32 700	31 000	34 900
0502 Gjøvik	30 642	36 000	34 200	38 500
0511 Dovre	2 642	2 400	2 300	2 600
0512 Lesja	2 038	1 800	1 700	1 900
0513 Skjåk	2 179	1 900	1 800	2 100
0514 Lom	2 331	2 200	2 100	2 400
0515 Vågå	3 638	3 700	3 400	3 900
0516 Nord-Fron	5 728	5 500	5 200	5 900
0517 Sel	5 872	5 700	5 400	6 100
0519 Sør-Fron	3 146	3 300	3 100	3 600
0520 Ringebu	4 454	4 400	4 200	4 800
0521 Øyer	5 130	5 400	5 200	5 800
0522 Gausdal	6 148	5 600	5 400	6 000
0528 Østre Toten	14 888	15 200	14 500	16 200
0529 Vestre Toten	13 314	14 600	13 900	15 600
0532 Jevnaker	6 777	8 500	8 100	9 000
0533 Lunner	9 065	10 500	10 000	11 200
0534 Gran	13 770	15 700	14 900	16 700
0536 Søndre Land	5 650	5 300	5 000	5 600
0538 Nordre Land	6 750	7 000	6 600	7 500
0540 Sør-Aurdal	3 014	2 700	2 600	3 000
0541 Etnedal	1 352	1 400	1 300	1 500
0542 Nord-Aurdal	6 443	6 500	6 200	7 100
0543 Vestre Slidre	2 139	2 000	1 900	2 200
0544 Øystre Slidre	3 221	3 500	3 300	3 700
0545 Vang	1 601	1 800	1 700	2 000
0602 Drammen	68 713	82 000	77 900	87 700
0604 Kongsberg	27 410	31 300	29 700	33 600
0605 Ringerike	30 283	34 400	32 700	36 800
0612 Hole	6 833	9 100	8 600	9 700
0615 Flå	1 069	1 400	1 300	1 500
0616 Nes (Buskerud)	3 341	2 900	2 800	3 200
0617 Gol	4 566	4 500	4 200	4 800
0618 Hemsedal	2 457	3 700	3 500	4 000
0619 Ål	4 626	4 200	3 900	4 500
0620 Hol	4 520	4 400	4 200	4 800
0621 Sigdal	3 488	3 000	2 900	3 200
0622 Krødsherad	2 277	2 700	2 500	2 800
0623 Modum	13 880	14 700	14 000	15 700
0624 Øvre Eiker	18 926	24 100	22 900	25 800
0625 Nedre Eiker	24 917	29 300	27 800	31 300
0626 Lier	25 980	31 000	29 500	33 100
0627 Røyken	22 452	30 400	28 800	32 500
0628 Hurum	9 450	8 800	8 400	9 400
0631 Flesberg	2 688	2 800	2 700	3 000
0632 Rollag	1 411	1 200	1 100	1 300
0633 Nore og Uvdal	2 482	2 200	2 100	2 300
0701 Horten	27 317	30 800	29 300	32 900
0704 Tønsberg	45 360	54 800	52 100	58 500
0710 Sandefjord	62 615	73 400	69 700	78 600
0711 Svelvik	6 672	7 300	7 000	7 700
0712 Larvik	46 801	49 000	46 600	52 400
0713 Sande (Vestfold)	9 726	13 700	13 000	14 600
0715 Holmestrand	14 212	17 700	16 900	18 900
0716 Re	9 621	11 900	11 400	12 800
0729 Færder	26 734	28 900	27 500	30 800
0805 Porsgrunn	36 091	40 100	38 100	42 800
0806 Skien	54 510	60 100	57 200	64 100
0807 Notodden	12 664	13 400	12 700	14 300
0811 Siljan	2 351	2 100	2 000	2 200
0814 Bamble	14 183	13 500	12 800	14 400
0815 Kragerø	10 506	10 700	10 200	11 400
0817 Drangedal	4 105	4 600	4 400	4 900
0819 Nome	6 609	6 500	6 100	6 900
0821 Bø (Telemark)	6 460	8 800	8 400	9 500
0822 Sauherad	4 359	4 300	4 000	4 500
0826 Tinn	5 856	5 900	5 600	6 400
0827 Hjartdal	1 587	1 500	1 500	1 600
0828 Seljord	2 959	3 100	3 000	3 300
0829 Kviteseid	2 397	2 200	2 100	2 400
0830 Nissedal	1 489	1 700	1 600	1 900
0831 Fyresdal	1 320	1 400	1 300	1 500
0833 Tokke	2 236	2 200	2 100	2 400
0834 Vinje	3 709	4 000	3 800	4 300
0901 Risør	6 882	7 700	7 300	8 200
0904 Grimstad	23 017	29 600	28 100	31 700
0906 Arendal	44 645	49 200	46 700	52 400
0911 Gjerstad	2 467	2 600	2 500	2 800
0912 Vegårshei	2 087	2 400	2 300	2 600
0914 Tvedestrand	6 086	6 000	5 700	6 300
0919 Froland	5 790	7 400	7 000	7 900
0926 Lillesand	10 871	13 500	12 700	14 400
0928 Birkenes	5 187	6 600	6 200	7 100
0929 Åmli	1 845	1 900	1 800	2 100
0935 Iveland	1 330	1 600	1 500	1 700
0937 Evje og Hornnes	3 625	4 400	4 200	4 800
0938 Bygland	1 207	1 300	1 200	1 400
0940 Valle	1 225	1 200	1 100	1 300
0941 Bykle	958	1 100	1 000	1 200
1001 Kristiansand	91 440	109 800	104 200	117 400
1002 Mandal	15 659	17 500	16 600	18 800
1003 Farsund	9 726	10 000	9 400	10 800
1004 Flekkefjord	9 066	9 100	8 600	9 800
1014 Vennesla	14 532	18 400	17 500	19 600
1017 Songdalen	6 656	8 700	8 300	9 300
1018 Søgne	11 342	13 600	12 900	14 500
1021 Marnardal	2 308	2 700	2 500	2 900
1026 Åseral	943	1 100	1 000	1 200
1027 Audnedal	1 786	2 200	2 000	2 300
1029 Lindesnes	4 938	5 400	5 200	5 800
1032 Lyngdal	8 571	10 100	9 500	11 000
1034 Hægebostad	1 699	1 800	1 700	1 900
1037 Kvinesdal	6 024	6 800	6 400	7 400
1046 Sirdal	1 842	1 900	1 800	2 100
1101 Eigersund	14 898	16 900	16 100	18 100
1102 Sandnes	76 328	96 400	91 300	103 600
1103 Stavanger	133 140	138 400	130 700	150 200
1106 Haugesund	37 167	43 700	41 500	46 800
1111 Sokndal	3 331	3 500	3 300	3 700
1112 Lund	3 237	3 400	3 200	3 700
1114 Bjerkreim	2 826	3 300	3 200	3 600
1119 Hå	18 762	22 900	21 700	24 600
1120 Klepp	19 217	24 000	22 800	25 700
1121 Time	18 699	22 800	21 600	24 400
1122 Gjesdal	11 866	14 300	13 600	15 400
1124 Sola	26 265	32 100	30 400	34 400
1127 Randaberg	10 972	11 900	11 300	12 800
1129 Forsand	1 246	1 300	1 200	1 400
1130 Strand	12 638	13 800	13 100	14 900
1133 Hjelmeland	2 723	2 300	2 200	2 400
1134 Suldal	3 849	3 600	3 400	3 800
1135 Sauda	4 663	4 400	4 200	4 800
1141 Finnøy	3 197	3 800	3 600	4 100
1142 Rennesøy	4 849	6 400	6 000	6 800
1144 Kvitsøy	542	500	500	500
1145 Bokn	844	800	700	800
1146 Tysvær	11 023	12 700	12 000	13 700
1149 Karmøy	42 243	43 800	41 500	46 900
1151 Utsira	208	200	200	200
1160 Vindafjord	8 793	9 500	9 000	10 200
1201 Bergen	279 792	310 600	294 900	333 200
1211 Etne	4 083	4 400	4 200	4 700
1216 Sveio	5 721	7 700	7 300	8 300
1219 Bømlo	11 902	13 200	12 600	14 200
1221 Stord	18 780	21 900	20 700	23 500
1222 Fitjar	3 194	3 700	3 500	4 000
1223 Tysnes	2 857	3 000	2 900	3 200
1224 Kvinnherad	13 180	12 100	11 500	12 900
1227 Jondal	1 096	1 400	1 300	1 500
1228 Odda	6 835	6 600	6 200	7 200
1231 Ullensvang	3 363	3 200	3 000	3 400
1232 Eidfjord	931	900	900	1 000
1233 Ulvik	1 117	1 100	1 000	1 200
1234 Granvin	931	800	800	900
1235 Voss	14 577	16 100	15 300	17 300
1238 Kvam	8 455	8 400	7 900	8 900
1241 Fusa	3 920	3 900	3 700	4 100
1242 Samnanger	2 463	2 200	2 100	2 300
1243 Os (Hordaland)	20 573	29 400	28 000	31 300
1244 Austevoll	5 189	6 400	6 100	6 800
1245 Sund	7 085	8 900	8 500	9 500
1246 Fjell	25 725	33 700	32 000	35 900
1247 Askøy	29 071	38 500	36 600	41 000
1251 Vaksdal	4 127	4 000	3 900	4 300
1252 Modalen	380	400	400	400
1253 Osterøy	8 125	9 600	9 100	10 300
1256 Meland	8 079	11 700	11 100	12 500
1259 Øygarden	4 877	5 500	5 300	5 900
1260 Radøy	5 129	5 200	5 000	5 500
1263 Lindås	15 789	18 300	17 400	19 500
1264 Austrheim	2 902	3 300	3 100	3 500
1265 Fedje	561	400	400	500
1266 Masfjorden	1 730	1 700	1 700	1 900
1401 Flora	11 988	12 500	11 800	13 600
1411 Gulen	2 345	2 500	2 400	2 700
1412 Solund	807	700	700	800
1413 Hyllestad	1 378	1 100	1 000	1 100
1416 Høyanger	4 154	3 800	3 600	4 200
1417 Vik	2 674	2 200	2 100	2 400
1418 Balestrand	1 262	1 100	1 100	1 200
1419 Leikanger	2 345	2 400	2 300	2 600
1420 Sogndal	8 059	10 800	10 200	11 600
1421 Aurland	1 778	1 900	1 800	2 000
1422 Lærdal	2 153	1 900	1 800	2 000
1424 Årdal	5 277	4 300	4 000	4 600
1426 Luster	5 223	5 500	5 200	5 900
1428 Askvoll	3 052	2 700	2 600	2 900
1429 Fjaler	2 846	3 500	3 300	3 800
1430 Gaular	3 006	3 400	3 200	3 600
1431 Jølster	3 043	2 900	2 700	3 100
1432 Førde	13 089	14 300	13 600	15 500
1433 Naustdal	2 825	2 800	2 600	3 000
1438 Bremanger	3 767	3 400	3 200	3 700
1439 Vågsøy	6 001	5 800	5 500	6 200
1441 Selje	2 757	2 500	2 400	2 700
1443 Eid	6 157	6 400	6 100	6 900
1444 Hornindal	1 175	1 000	900	1 100
1445 Gloppen	5 874	6 300	5 900	6 700
1449 Stryn	7 195	7 800	7 400	8 400
1502 Molde	26 900	31 200	29 600	33 500
1504 Ålesund	47 510	53 500	50 700	57 500
1505 Kristiansund	24 300	26 800	25 400	28 700
1511 Vanylven	3 187	2 200	2 000	2 300
1514 Sande (Møre og Romsdal)	2 522	2 300	2 200	2 500
1515 Herøy (Møre og Romsdal)	8 965	8 800	8 300	9 500
1516 Ulstein	8 555	11 000	10 400	12 000
1517 Hareid	5 150	5 200	4 900	5 600
1519 Volda	9 188	10 800	10 200	11 600
1520 Ørsta	10 812	11 500	10 900	12 400
1523 Ørskog	2 267	2 200	2 100	2 400
1524 Norddal	1 670	1 200	1 200	1 300
1525 Stranda	4 587	4 300	4 000	4 600
1526 Stordal	972	800	800	900
1528 Sykkylven	7 695	6 700	6 400	7 200
1529 Skodje	4 680	6 200	5 800	6 700
1531 Sula	9 131	11 300	10 700	12 200
1532 Giske	8 292	10 800	10 200	11 700
1534 Haram	9 345	9 400	8 900	10 100
1535 Vestnes	6 559	6 400	6 000	6 800
1539 Rauma	7 507	7 000	6 700	7 500
1543 Nesset	2 946	2 600	2 400	2 700
1545 Midsund	2 049	2 200	2 000	2 300
1546 Sandøy	1 263	1 100	1 000	1 200
1547 Aukra	3 557	4 400	4 100	4 700
1548 Fræna	9 775	10 400	9 800	11 100
1551 Eide	3 440	3 200	3 100	3 500
1554 Averøy	5 859	6 600	6 300	7 100
1557 Gjemnes	2 623	2 400	2 300	2 600
1560 Tingvoll	3 078	2 900	2 800	3 200
1563 Sunndal	7 119	7 000	6 600	7 700
1566 Surnadal	5 978	6 300	6 000	6 700
1567 Rindal	2 039	2 200	2 100	2 300
1571 Halsa	1 571	1 400	1 300	1 500
1573 Smøla	2 172	2 300	2 200	2 400
1576 Aure	3 593	3 600	3 400	3 900
5001 Trondheim	193 501	220 500	209 500	236 000
5004 Steinkjer	22 096	24 800	23 500	26 600
5005 Namsos	13 078	13 900	13 100	14 900
5011 Hemne	4 225	4 400	4 100	4 700
5012 Snillfjord	987	900	900	1 000
5013 Hitra	4 648	4 600	4 300	5 000
5014 Frøya	4 962	5 800	5 500	6 400
5015 Ørland	5 351	6 500	6 200	6 900
5016 Agdenes	1 684	1 500	1 500	1 600
5017 Bjugn	4 864	5 600	5 400	6 000
5018 Åfjord	3 277	3 700	3 500	3 900
5019 Roan	953	900	800	900
5020 Osen	967	800	800	900
5021 Oppdal	6 970	7 800	7 400	8 300
5022 Rennebu	2 541	2 600	2 500	2 800
5023 Meldal	3 930	4 400	4 200	4 700
5024 Orkdal	11 933	13 800	13 100	14 700
5025 Røros	5 663	6 200	5 900	6 600
5026 Holtålen	2 028	2 200	2 100	2 400
5027 Midtre Gauldal	6 225	6 900	6 600	7 300
5028 Melhus	16 424	19 700	18 800	21 000
5029 Skaun	8 142	12 900	12 200	13 700
5030 Klæbu	6 094	7 100	6 700	7 600
5031 Malvik	13 958	17 200	16 400	18 300
5032 Selbu	4 093	4 100	3 900	4 300
5033 Tydal	834	700	700	800
5034 Meråker	2 469	2 400	2 300	2 500
5035 Stjørdal	23 964	29 700	28 300	31 600
5036 Frosta	2 616	2 800	2 700	3 000
5037 Levanger	20 115	23 600	22 400	25 200
5038 Verdal	14 943	16 100	15 300	17 200
5039 Verran	2 473	1 900	1 800	2 000
5040 Namdalseid	1 585	1 300	1 200	1 400
5041 Snåase - Snåsa	2 094	2 000	1 900	2 100
5042 Lierne	1 379	1 200	1 200	1 400
5043 Raarvihke - Røyrvik	474	400	400	400
5044 Namsskogan	902	900	900	1 000
5045 Grong	2 400	2 500	2 300	2 700
5046 Høylandet	1 268	1 200	1 200	1 300
5047 Overhalla	3 845	4 500	4 300	4 900
5048 Fosnes	618	400	400	500
5049 Flatanger	1 105	1 100	1 000	1 200
5050 Vikna	4 492	5 300	5 100	5 700
5051 Nærøy	5 117	5 400	5 100	5 800
5052 Leka	582	500	500	500
5053 Inderøy	6 785	6 600	6 200	7 100
5054 Indre Fosen	10 090	9 900	9 400	10 500
1804 Bodø	51 558	60 300	57 100	64 600
1805 Narvik	18 638	19 000	18 000	20 600
1811 Bindal	1 486	1 200	1 200	1 300
1812 Sømna	2 020	1 900	1 800	2 100
1813 Brønnøy	7 948	9 200	8 700	9 800
1815 Vega	1 221	1 100	1 100	1 200
1816 Vevelstad	506	600	500	600
1818 Herøy (Nordland)	1 790	2 000	1 900	2 200
1820 Alstahaug	7 450	7 500	7 000	8 100
1822 Leirfjord	2 307	2 900	2 700	3 100
1824 Vefsn	13 448	13 500	12 800	14 500
1825 Grane	1 463	1 300	1 300	1 400
1826 Hattfjelldal	1 411	1 300	1 200	1 400
1827 Dønna	1 403	1 200	1 100	1 300
1828 Nesna	1 805	1 900	1 800	2 000
1832 Hemnes	4 503	4 300	4 100	4 600
1833 Rana	26 230	28 000	26 500	29 900
1834 Lurøy	1 920	1 800	1 700	1 900
1835 Træna	454	600	500	600
1836 Rødøy	1 249	1 100	1 100	1 200
1837 Meløy	6 346	5 400	5 100	5 700
1838 Gildeskål	1 998	1 900	1 800	2 000
1839 Beiarn	1 029	800	700	800
1840 Saltdal	4 691	4 000	3 800	4 300
1841 Fauske - Fuosko	9 775	9 800	9 300	10 500
1845 Sørfold	1 979	1 900	1 800	2 100
1848 Steigen	2 534	2 200	2 100	2 300
1849 Hamarøy - Hábmer	1 801	1 900	1 800	2 000
1850 Divtasvuodna - Tysfjord	1 953	1 800	1 700	1 900
1851 Lødingen	2 102	1 700	1 600	1 900
1852 Tjeldsund	1 259	1 000	1 000	1 100
1853 Evenes	1 387	1 400	1 300	1 500
1854 Ballangen	2 522	2 200	2 000	2 400
1856 Røst	517	300	300	400
1857 Værøy	746	700	700	800
1859 Flakstad	1 301	1 000	1 000	1 100
1860 Vestvågøy	11 397	12 500	11 800	13 600
1865 Vågan	9 611	10 700	10 100	11 600
1866 Hadsel	8 042	8 100	7 600	8 700
1867 Bø (Nordland)	2 623	2 100	2 000	2 200
1868 Øksnes	4 541	4 700	4 500	5 100
1870 Sortland - Suortá	10 401	11 900	11 200	12 800
1871 Andøy	4 902	4 500	4 300	4 900
1874 Moskenes	1 068	1 000	900	1 000
1902 Tromsø	75 638	82 100	77 800	88 200
1903 Harstad - Hárstták	24 820	26 800	25 300	28 900
1911 Kvæfjord	2 928	2 800	2 600	3 000
1913 Skånland	2 994	3 000	2 900	3 300
1917 Ibestad	1 380	1 200	1 100	1 300
1919 Gratangen	1 117	1 000	900	1 100
1920 Loabák - Lavangen	1 061	1 000	1 000	1 100
1922 Bardu	3 979	3 900	3 700	4 200
1923 Salangen	2 226	2 400	2 300	2 600
1924 Målselv	6 798	7 400	6 900	8 000
1925 Sørreisa	3 494	3 800	3 600	4 100
1926 Dyrøy	1 165	1 000	900	1 100
1927 Tranøy	1 536	1 400	1 300	1 500
1928 Torsken	943	1 100	1 000	1 100
1929 Berg	902	800	800	900
1931 Lenvik	11 644	12 400	11 700	13 400
1933 Balsfjord	5 653	6 700	6 300	7 200
1936 Karlsøy	2 263	2 100	2 000	2 200
1938 Lyngen	2 877	2 400	2 300	2 600
1939 Storfjord - Omasvuotna - Omasvuono	1 856	1 800	1 700	1 900
1940 Gáivuotna - Kåfjord - Kaivuono	2 132	1 800	1 700	1 900
1941 Skjervøy	2 925	3 000	2 800	3 200
1942 Nordreisa	4 944	5 800	5 500	6 300
1943 Kvænangen	1 224	1 100	1 000	1 200
2002 Vardø	2 110	2 000	1 900	2 200
2003 Vadsø	6 033	5 800	5 400	6 400
2004 Hammerfest	10 533	12 500	11 700	13 500
2011 Guovdageaidnu - Kautokeino	2 946	2 400	2 300	2 600
2012 Alta	20 635	22 900	21 700	24 700
2014 Loppa	941	600	600	600
2015 Hasvik	1 022	900	900	1 000
2017 Kvalsund	1 027	700	700	800
2018 Måsøy	1 231	1 000	900	1 100
2019 Nordkapp	3 239	3 100	2 900	3 300
2020 Porsanger - Porsángu - Porsanki	3 964	3 300	3 100	3 600
2021 Kárásjohka - Karasjok	2 701	2 200	2 100	2 400
2022 Lebesby	1 349	1 400	1 300	1 500
2023 Gamvik	1 153	1 400	1 300	1 500
2024 Berlevåg	983	800	800	900
2025 Deatnu - Tana	2 922	2 600	2 400	2 800
2027 Unjárga - Nesseby	944	1 100	1 000	1 200
2028 Båtsfjord	2 263	2 700	2 600	3 000
2030 Sør-Varanger	10 171	10 300	9 700	11 200

About the statistics

Population projections are calculations of how the population in Norway will potentially develop over time, given different assumptions about fertility, mortality, internal migration, immigration and emigration. Read about results, methods and assumptions in the report Population Projections 2018.

Definitions

Definitions of the main concepts and variables

A population projection is an estimate of the future size and composition of a population, given certain assumptions of future fertility, life expectancy, domestic migration, immigration and emigration. The term projection is used for any estimate of the future population, also less likely ones. A prognosis or forecast is an estimate of the most probable future population size and composition.

Statistics Norway publishes several projections, but the MMMM alternative which assumes the medium level for each component is what we assume to be most plausible and to the greatest extent can be regarded as a population forecast or prognosis.

The variables and terms used in the population projections are described in the projections' report (see link below, 'Relevant documentation').

Standard classifications: Not relevant.

Administrative information

Name and topic: Name: Population projections
Topic: Population

Responsible division: Research department, Unit for Social and Demographic Research

Regional level: The lowest regional levels for the population projections are municipalities (city districts for Oslo).

Frequency and timeliness: The population projections are published biennially.

International reporting: Statistics Norway reports projections to Eurostat and the United Nations, among others.

Microdata: The population projections utilize aggregated individual level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. The results from the projections are stored in the StatBank at Statistics Norway and as separate files. Aggregated data may be downloaded electronically from the StatBank.

Background

Background and purpose

The population projections aim at informing planning and public debate on population issues.

SSB has produced population projections regularly since the 1950s. Previous population projections can be found here, and in the StatBank.

Users and applications: The most important users of Statistics Norway's population projections are public and private planning bodies at the municipal, county and central government levels, as well as journalists, researchers, politicians and the general public. The projections are also used internally in SSB, for example as input in macroeconomic models.

Equal treatment of users: Not relevant

Coherence with other statistics: The population projections are published in accordance with international standards. The Norwegian figures are more detailed (regional level, immigration category, country group and period of residence) than what is commonly published from most other countries.

Legal authority: There are no specific rules regulating the population projections, but the production process of the projections is based in the Norwegian Statistics Act of 1989.

EEA reference: Although there is no separate EU regulation of this field, a collaboration exists between Norway and Eurostat. Eurostat produces population projections for the EU and Norway on a regular basis. These projections differ from those produced by Statistics Norway.

Production

Population

To project the population, assumptions are needed on future fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration. After the assumptions are made, the Norwegian population is projected using the two cohort component models BEFINN and BEFREG.

The methods used are further described in the projections' report (see link below, 'Relevant documentation').

Data sources and sampling

The population projections utilize aggregated individual level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. We use data categorized by age, sex, immigrant background and country group of origin for 1 January each year, in addition to figures on births, deaths, domestic migration, immigration and emigration by age, sex and municipality/city district.

No samples are used. The projections utilize the whole population in estimations.

The methods used in the population projections are further described in the projections' report (see link below, 'Relevant documentation').

Collection of data, editing and estimations: No data are collected specifically for the purpose of making population projections.

Seasonal adjustment: Not relevant

Confidentiality: Not relevant.

Comparability over time and space

At a national level, the various versions of the population projections are comparable over time. The projections are comparable also at the regional level, apart from in situations where municipalities have been merged or divided.

Country groups are not entirely comparable over time, since the definition and the number of groups have varied.

In comparing results from the population projections to the general population statistics at Statistics Norway, two main differences stand out:

1) The projection models project the population from 1 January one year to 1 January the year after. This means that individuals who move several times during one year, only contribute with one move, or with zero moves if the person reside in the same municipality at the beginning and the end of the year. Similarly applies for moves between Norway and other countries. Consequently, somewhat fewer migrations are used in the population projections compared to the numbers that are published in the general population statistics.

2) The age definitions are not the same in the projections and the general population statistics. Whereas the general population statistics use age at time of event (e.g. birth, death or migration), the projections use age at the end of the year. This means that the age-specific ratios and probabilities used in the projections – as well as the life expectancy figures – may differ slightly from what is published in the population statistics.

Accuracy and reliability

Sources of error and uncertainty

There is a marked uncertainty about whether the assumptions used in making the population projections will accurately reflect future demographic trends. Over the past decade, future immigration has proven to be the most difficult component to project. This is also likely to be the case in the years ahead. Fertility, mortality and internal migration can also be very different from what was projected.

Models are simplifications of reality, and as such may only capture a few key mechanisms. This means that there are a multitude of other conditions that will affect population development which are not considered.

Errors in the population statistics system are usually modest in Norway and play a minor role in the projections

In summary, the uncertainty increases with time, and the percent wise errors are typically greatest for small municipalities. For more information, see link below, ‘Relevant documentation’.

Revision: Not relevant

Relevant documentation

Norway’s 2018 population projections - Main results, methods and assumptions. Notater (2018/22)

StatBank

Find detailed figures from The Population Projections

To StatBank

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Population projections

See more tables on this subject

Table 1
Population projections. Key figures

Table 2
Population January 1. First year registered, then projected in three alternatives to 2100

Table 3
Population in the municipalities January 1. First year registered. Projected in three alternatives in 2040

About the statistics

Definitions

Administrative information

Background

Production

Accuracy and reliability

Relevant documentation

StatBank

Read more about these figures

Lower population growth in future

Contact

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Population projections

Key figures

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About the statistics

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Lower population growth in future

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Population

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Analyses, articles and publications

Befolkningsframskrivingene 2018

The population projections

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