We project more births than deaths up until 2046, after which population growth will be driven by immigration alone. The share of immigrants is expected to increase from around 17 percent today to around 22 percent in 2050. Going forward, the immigrant population will be more established, with many having long residence in Norway, and more in the older age groups than today.

Regardless of which alternative is used in the population projections, we see a strong ageing of the population going forward. Both the number and the share of elderly people will increase considerably in the future. The population aged 80 years or older will more than double by 2050 and is expected to amount to close to one million individuals by 2100. Their share of the total population will also increase, from today's 5 percent to 9.5 percent in 2050 and over 15 percent by 2100, according to the main alternative. At the same time, the number of people aged 90 years or older is expected to almost triple by 2050.

Historically, Norway has always had more children and young people than elderly people (65+ years). This will soon change. The number of young people is expected to remain relatively stable, while the number of elderly people will increase considerably. At the start of the 2030s, the main alternative indicates that there will be more people aged 65 years or older than children and young people (0–19 years), with a growing difference as we move forward in time. The main alternative indicates that those aged 70+ years will surpass children and young people shortly after 2050.

The results of the population projections depend on the assumptions used for the underlying demographic components. We use different assumptions for future change in fertility, life expectancy and immigration: the main alternative (M); high (H); low (L); constant (C); zero net immigration (E); and no immigration (0). We project the population in 15 combinations of these assumptions. Each projection alternative is described using three letters in the following order: fertility, life expectancy and immigration. The term 'main alternative' is used to refer to the MMM alternative, which entails the use of the main alternative assumptions for all three components.

The population is projected by age and sex up to the year 2100. Immigrants from three country groups, Norwegian-born to two immigrant parents and the rest of the population are projected as separate groups. The report first provides an overview of the main results, followed by a more detailed presentation and discussion of the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. Population projections are inherently uncertain. Future immigration is subject to the strongest degree of uncertainty, but trends in fertility, mortality and emigration may also turn out quite differently than the assumptions.