Strong increase in the trade balance in Q1 2026

Highlights from the publication:

• The current account balance nearly unchanged from last year
• Trade balance surplus jumped by over 50 percent compared to the previous quarter due to higher oil and gas prices
• The balance of income and current transfers increased by 8 percent from last year
• Norway’s net foreign assets had a decline of NOK 1 600 billion, close to 8 per cent. 
• Volatile global stock markets and appreciated Norwegian krone were the reasons for the decrease. 
• Net lending in the first quarter of 2026 amounted to NOK 250 billion. 

The current account

Norway’s current account surplus remains strong compared to the same quarter last year at NOK 267 billion, the main driver being exports of petroleum. The balance of income and current transfers showed an increased surplus compared to Q1 2025. 

Surge in the trade balance surplus 

The trade balance surplus in the first quarter of 2026 ended at NOK 226 billion, up by NOK 80 billion compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Compared to the first quarter of 2025 the trade balance was slightly lower. 

In total Norway exported goods and services with a market value of NOK 667 billion in the first quarter. This was an increase of 6 percent measured against the fourth quarter of 2025, but down 1 percent from the first quarter last year. Goods exports were unchanged compared to the same quarter last year, while service exports contracted by 3 percent from the first quarter of 2025. 

Imports of goods and services came in at NOK 441 billion which was an increase of 1 percent compared to the year-ago quarter, but a decline of 9 percent versus the fourth quarter of 2025. Goods imports increased by 1 percent from the year-ago quarter, but service imports were unchanged. 

Both imports and exports show seasonality with the first quarter of the year being relatively weaker. 

For information on volume and price developments in exports and imports as well as seasonally adjusted figures, see quarterly national accounts.

Increased surplus on the balance of income and current transfers 

The balance of income and current transfers showed a surplus of NOK 41 billion in the first quarter of 2026. This was an increase of NOK 3 billion compared to the first quarter of 2025, and substantially higher than the surplus of NOK 4 billion recorded in the fourth quarter. However, the fourth quarter has often been weak showing a deficit. 

Financial account

The value of Norway’s net foreign assets, or net International Investment Position, decreased by NOK 1 600 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The negative revaluation of close to 8 per cent, was due to volatile global stock markets with a market price decline, and appreciation of the Norwegian krone against several main currencies. 

Volatile global stock markets 

The market price decline in the global stock markets in the first quarter of 2026 resulted in a decrease in the value of the Norwegian investments abroad of about NOK 900 billion. In the same quarter, the Norwegian krone appreciated against the main currencies like US dollar, Euro and British pound, which resulted in an additional decrease of about NOK 650 billion due to exchange rate changes. These decreases are shown in figure 2, in the dark column “other changes”. 

The sector General government, which includes the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) saw the largest decrease in value this quarter, which is not unnatural due to it being Norway’s largest holder of investments abroad. On its own, GPFG, had a decrease of about NOK 1 400 billion, whereof NOK 800 billion was due to market price decline and NOK 600 billion was due to the appreciation of the Norwegian krone. 

Continuous positive net lending 

Despite the large decrease of Norway’s net assets due to revaluations, the net lending stayed positive, with NOK 250 billion in first quarter 2026. When net lending is positive, it means that Norway is investing more abroad than it takes up foreign debt.