Higher trade balance surplus in Q1 2025

Highlights from the publication

• The trade balance increased by 31 percent compared to the first quarter of last year

• The current account balance increased by 18 percent in the same period

• Net financial assets decreased by NOK 1 225 billion, just over 6 per cent, from NOK 19 591 billion to NOK 18 365 billion in the first quarter of 2025.

• The decline in net assets can be explained by a stronger Norwegian krone relative to the other most traded currencies and a fall in securities market prices.

The current account

The current account surplus remains elevated compared to the period before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. In Q1 2025 the surplus was NOK 286 billion. This was NOK 45 billion higher than in Q1 2024.

Higher trade balance surplus 

The balance of trade in goods and services increased by NOK 57 billion in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2024.

In total, Norway exported goods and services worth NOK 666 billion in Q1 2025. This is an increase of NOK 93 billion compared to the same period the previous year. Goods exports increased by 18 per cent, while service exports increased by 10 per cent.

Norway imported goods and services worth NOK 426 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up 9 percent from the same quarter of the previous year. Imports of goods increased by 11 percent while service imports increased by 6 per cent.

For information on volume and price developments in exports and imports as well as seasonally adjusted figures, see quarterly national accounts.

Lower surplus on the balance of income and current transfers

The balance of income and current transfers showed a surplus of NOK 46 billion in the first quarter of 2024, NOK 12 billion lower than in the same quarter of 2024. A reduction in diviend paymants from abroad of NOK 27 billion contributed to the reduction. This decrease in income was partly offset by a redcution in dividend payments and current transfers to abroad.

The balance of income and current transfers has shown a surplus in all quarters since Q1 2023.

Financial accounts

Net financial assets decreased by NOK 1 225 billion from NOK 19,591 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 to NOK 18 365 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2025. This is a decrease of just over 6 per cent and is due to net holding losses in the foreign exchange and securities markets of NOK 1 700 billion. At the same time, we see a high net lending equal to NOK 460 billion.

The development in Norway’s net foreign assets, net lending/borrowing and other changes is illustrated in figure 2.

Large price and currency losses for the Government Pension Fund Global

The net external loss of NOK 1 700 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2025 can be explained by two factors: First, the Norwegian krone appreciated in the first quarter of 2025 against important currencies such as the dollar, euro and pound sterling, and second, there was a negative market price development in global financial markets.

In the first quarter of 2025, the Government Pension Fund Global had a loss in value of NOK 1 408 billion. Of these, a stronger krone accounted for about NOK 880 billion of the loss in value. Fluctuations in the Norwegian krone’s exchange rate contribute greatly to fluctuations in the value of the fund because it mainly invests abroad and is therefore very sensitive to fluctuations in the Norwegian krone when the investments are converted into NOK.

High net lending

Net lending of NOK 460 billion is the difference between Norwegian investments of NOK 348 billion in foreign assets, and reduction of foreign debt of NOK 112 billion. Not since the end of the third quarter of 2022, have we seen such large net lending, which then amounted to NOK 482 billion.

It was mainly Norwegian portfolio investments abroad that contributed to the net lending at the end of the first quarter of 2025, where both Norwegian non-financial corporations increased their portfolio investments abroad and the Government Pension Fund Global increased its investments in long term debt securities.