The analysis reveals a clear association between early pension withdrawal and higher mortality. Individuals who claim pensions at the earliest eligible age exhibit mortality rates that are approximately 30–35 per cent higher than those who delay withdrawal. This suggests substantial self-selection: individuals with poorer health and lower expected longevity are more likely to claim early.
At the same time, there is considerable heterogeneity across groups. Women and highly educated individuals appear to adjust their withdrawal decisions more closely to their health status, while some manual occupations show high rates of early withdrawal without correspondingly high excess mortality. This may indicate that some groups are less likely to make choices that, from a purely financial ex post perspective, would maximise total lifetime pension benefits.
The analysis further shows that flexible withdrawal has generated clear welfare gains for individuals who die early, as they receive pension income that would not have been available under the previous system. However, the system also entails greater individual risk: individuals who live longer than expected and withdraw early receive permanently lower annual benefits.
Overall, individuals appear to respond to the incentives embedded in the pension system, but the ability to do so is unevenly distributed. Particularly, groups with lower income and weaker labour market attachment face both higher mortality and lower likelihood of qualifying for early withdrawal. This represents a challenge for the distributional sustainability of the system.