The Discussion Papers series presents results from ongoing research projects and other research and analysis by SSB staff, intended for international journals or books. The views and conclusions in this document are those of the author(s).
We argue that an elimination strategy—combining strict infection control with stringent border measures until a vaccine becomes available—delivers the greatest net benefits when a successful vaccine is expected within a short timeframe. Under vaccine uncertainty, both elimination and mitigation, the latter allowing gradual community spread, remain viable options. Norway adopted a suppression approach based on extensive TTIQ measures. Our findings suggest that this strategy was inferior compared to both elimination and mitigation. Finally, we compare ex-post assessments of costs and benefits with those emphasized in ex-ante evaluations, highlighting key discrepancies.