In Statistics Norway's national forecasts from December 2022, growth was estimated to be significantly lower in 2023 and 2024 compared to the development in 2022. In the same period, it is expected that the development will be cyclically neutral in the coming years.
The Norwegian krone has weakened somewhat throughout 2022 and especially in the first part of the current year, while energy prices are still at a high level. In isolation, a weaker krone leads to better profitability for export-oriented businesses, but high prices for energy and other input factors as well as high imported inflation, lead to increased cost levels, which can reduce profitability. With continuing high interest rates and negative real income growth, the increase in household consumption is estimated to be low both this year and next year. The estimates from December 2022, however, indicate a somewhat reduced price increase throughout the current year and a price increase on an annual basis in 2023 of 4.9 per cent for CPI and 4.4 per cent for core inflation (CPI-JAE). In isolation, an underlying strong price increase until October 2022 lays a foundation for lower price increases during 2023. So does an expected improvement in productivity.
With regards to the county of Møre og Romsdal, the strong production growth in the primary industries is expected to be lower in 2023 and 2024 than in 2022. Manufacturing production is developing somewhat weaker this year than last year, albeit moderately above the national average due to the county’s manufacturing structure. Production in construction is expected to be moderate due to high interest rates and lower investments. Production in market-oriented service provision is expected to rise slightly, but less than last year, while production in public administration is still increasing, approximately as last year. The estimates also show production growth in industries such as the extraction of oil and gas, services activities incidental to oil and gas and transport via pipelines. The total gross product for all industries in the county is expected to grow this year and next year, albeit somewhat less than in 2022. Møre og Romsdal had an increase in total employment in 2022, with increased employment in the primary industries, manufacturing, construction, market-oriented and public service provision, but also in several other industries, such as extraction of oil and gas and transport via pipelines and services activities incidental to oil and gas. The estimates indicate a more moderate employment growth in 2023, with employment growth in primary industries and public service provision, as well as in parts of what we call “other industries.” Employment growth in Møre og Romsdal is expected to remain at approximately the same level next year as in the current year, with an estimated rise moderately above the national average. Overall, production is estimated to increase more than employment.
New figures show population growth in Møre og Romsdal in 2022, and stronger than in previous years in the 2000s. This is due to increased immigration because of large refugee flows from Ukraine in addition to the lowest domestic net outmigration in the 2000s due to e.g. increased employment with subsequent higher employment rates and relatively low unemployment.
New figures show a growth in the number of people of working age in the county in 2022, and the estimates for the current year show that the number of people of working age continues to grow although less than last year. Increased ageing and more immigrants of working age contribute somewhat to dampening labour force participation. However, a somewhat higher level of education in the population and employment growth cause some growth in the workforce. The labour force seems to increase slightly more than employment during the current year, so that a moderate increase in unemployment can be expected. Projected developments in employment and the workforce indicate a moderate increase in unemployment also in 2024.