The projections are based on models developed by Statistics Norway (SSB), in which demographic developments, service utilization, and labor supply are key underlying assumptions. The projections rely on SSB’s latest population forecasts from 2024 and use 2024 as the updated base year. Scenario analyses are used to illustrate how different assumptions may affect the results.

The demand projections show that growth in staffing needs is significantly stronger in care services than in health services, driven by the increase in the elderly population. Growth is particularly strong in municipal care services and somatic health services. The results also indicate that assumptions regarding developments in staffing per user (full-time equivalents per service recipient) have a major impact on staffing needs and are an important source of variation across scenarios. Furthermore, differences in the development of family care have substantial effects on the need for publicly funded staffing.

Projections of labor supply for health personnel show an increase across all educational groups toward 2040, although with considerable variation between them. Psychologists and dental hygienists are projected to experience the highest percentage growth, while nurses, social educators, and several other groups show more moderate growth. Health care workers and midwives are expected to have the weakest growth.

To allocate projected demand for services across different educational groups, the analysis uses the observed staffing composition within each health service. The findings show that staffing composition in several services has changed since 2020, with a decline in the share of nurses and an increase in the share of unskilled personnel involved in patient-facing work. However, it remains uncertain whether this reflects a permanent trend or a temporary adjustment.

Analyses of imbalances between supply and demand (gap analyses) indicate that demand for health personnel is projected to increase significantly more than supply. Shortages are particularly large for health care workers and nurses, while several other groups show more moderate deficits or even surpluses. It is important to note that the projections are based on the fact that there is already a shortage for some educational groups in 2024.
Calculations of the effects of different supply-side measures show that none of these measures alone are sufficient to meet the future demand for health personnel in the baseline scenario. Increasing education capacity has the largest effect, while measures aimed at extending labor market participation among older workers have a more moderate impact in the projections.