The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the period November 2021-January 2022 amounted to 118.4 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous three-month period was 118.9. After a fall in production at the end of the year 2021, activity in the manufacturing sector has seen a marked increase in January 2022 (see figure 1).

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures¹. 2005=100

¹ March 2020 and the subsequent months are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine. Hence, the trend figures for 2020 are not included in the figure.

Monthly change: several industry groups contributed to growth

According to , manufacturing output grew by 3.3 per cent from December 2021 to January 2022. The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals contributed the most in the positive direction with a strong growth of 6.1 per cent. There was also growth within the industries machinery and equipment and fabricated metal products. Production within wood and wood products saw a strong growth of 12.5 per cent and many businesses within the industry reported of high demand for wood and related products.

Amongst the few industries with declines this month were basic chemicals with a fall of 3.7 per cent.

Three-month change: food products contributed to fall in manufacturing output

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output saw a decrease of 0.4 per cent in the period November 2021-January 2022 compared to the previous three-month period. The decrease is particularly related to a fall in food products of 5.3 per cent due to lower production within processing and preserving of fish. The decline is due to an early start of the mackerel season in August and September.

In addition, the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals also saw a clear output fall in this three-month period. The decline was due to downtime and maintenance shutdowns, amongst other things.

On the other hand, the industry grouping wood and wood products saw a marked growth of 8.8 per cent in this three-month period. In addition, there was also an increase in manufacturing output in basic metals compared to the last period.

Figure 2. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Monthly change: output growth in the Euro area in December

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the had an output growth of 1.1 per cent from November to December 2021. In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing production declined by 1.6 per cent.

Sweden saw a marginal increase of 0.3 per cent in the same period, while Denmark had an output fall of 1.2 per cent.

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Three-month change: production fall in the petroleum industry

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply had a clear output decrease of 3.4 per cent in the period November 2021-January 2022 compared to the previous three-month period. The decline is particularly due to a production fall of 12 per cent within extraction of crude petroleum. In addition, extraction of natural gas also saw a decrease of 7.3 per cent. The decline in the petroleum industry is due to technical problems in the beginning of the three-month period. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this period, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was a clear output increase of 5.4 per cent in this three-month period. In the same period, mining and quarrying also saw a marked growth of 8.1 per cent, while production within Norwegian electricity went up by 8.6 per cent.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishments have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

The weights in the index of industrial production (PII) are updated by the transition to a new year. The basis for the weights in the index of industrial production (PII) is value added at factor prices from the annual structure statistics for oil and gas, manufacturing, electricity and district heating for 2020. The value added figures are updated to the situation at the end of 2021 with rates of change from the quarterly national accounts, and volume figures from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within manufacturing, basic metals was the industry that had the largest increase in weights from 2021 to 2022. On the other hand, weights for food products had the largest decline from 2021 to 2022. For the total aggregate (PII), the weights for manufacturing increased, while the weight for extraction and related services decreased.

As of January 2022, updated productivity factors will be included in the calculation of the index of industrial production (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply. The factors are based on annual volume change in GDP per hour worked for the relevant industries and are an average from the last five years. This information is collected from the annual national accounts.