The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the first quarter of 2022 amounted to 119,0 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous quarter was 117.8. The output level indicate that the manufacturing production is now on a similar level as before the corona epidemic (see figure 1).

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures¹. 2005=100

¹ March 2020 and the subsequent months are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine. Hence, the trend figures for 2020 are not included in the figure.

Three-month change: high activity within wood and wood products

According to , manufacturing output saw an output increase of 1.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2022 compared with the previous quarter. The increase in the industry for wood and wood products together with fabricated metal products contributed the most to the overall increase in industrial production this quarter. The high activity level in wood and wood products can be see in connection with high market demand. In addition fabricated metal products had an increase of 2.6 per cent.

Looking at the same period there was an increase in of 2.0 per cent.

Monthly change: small increase from February to March

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output had an increase of 0.6 per cent from February to March 2021. The industry grouping rubber, plastic and mineral production contributed the most to overall output growth with an increase of 10.9 per cent. In addition, food products also had a production increase in this period.

On the other hand, the overall output increase was dampened by a decline in the production of basic chemicals. The decline can be seen in connection with maintenance shutdowns in some parts of the industry.

Figure 2. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Monthly change: output increase in the Euro area in February 2022

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the had a marginal output increase of 0.7 per cent from January to February.

In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing production decreased by 2.1 per cent. Sweden saw a marginal increase of 0.1 per cent in the same period, while Denmark had an output growth of 1.0 per cent.

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Three-month change: increase in total production index

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply had a output increase of 1.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2022 compared with the previous quarter. Extraction of crude petroleum saw an increase of 2.9 per cent, while extraction of natural gas went up with 3.2 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this period, see the press release from, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was an output growth of 4.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2022 compared with the previous quarter. In the same period mining and quarrying saw a decrease of 0.7 per cent, while production within Norwegian electricity supply decreased with 3.4 per cent.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishments have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the calendar-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April is greater than normal due to the changed placing of Easter. This effect will also affect the seasonally-adjusted figures for the 1st and 2nd quarters. This is accounted for when adjusting for seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all impacts.