The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the period May- July 2021 amounted to 119 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous three-month period was 120. Figures for the last months indicate that the production activity has stabilized more or less on the same level as seen prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures¹. 2005=100

¹ March 2020 and the subsequent months are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine. Hence, the trend figures for 2020 are not included in the figure.

Monthly change: decline in food products and machinery and equipment

According to In order to facilitate the interpretation of the short-term development, the index of production publishes three-month moving averages of the seasonally-adjusted figures. We normally compare the latest non-overlapping three-month periods. Seasonally-adjusted monthly changes must be interpreted with caution., manufacturing output saw a moderate decrease of 0.6 per cent from June to July 2021. Food products together with machinery and equipment contributed the most to the overall output decline, with a decrease of 3 and 5.2 per cent respectively.

On the other hand, the overall production decline was dampened by a strong output growth in wood and wood products of as much as 13.6 per cent. In addition, basic chemicals and transport equipment n.e.c also registered a production increase.

Three-month change: food products pulls down overall manufacturing output

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output saw a decrease of 0.8 per cent in the period May to July 2021 compared with the previous three-month period. Food products contributed the most to pull down the overall manufacturing output, with a decline of 2.3 per cent. This decline is related to low production within processing and preserving of fish due to high slaughter volumes in the previous three-month period. In addition, repair and installation of machinery contributed also negatively with a decrease of 3.5 per cent.

On the other hand, the overall manufacturing decline was dampened by a production growth in basic chemicals and fabricated metal products. The increase in these industries was partially due to better market conditions and increased order stock.

Figure 2. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Monthly change: output in the Euro area saw a minor decline in June 2021

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the The euro area comprises the 19 European Union (EU) member states that have adopted the euro as their common currency. had a minor decline of 0.4 per cent from May to June 2021.

In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing production saw an increase of 0.7 per cent. Sweden had a clear production growth of as much as 3.7 per cent, while Denmark saw a severe drop of 4.3 per cent.

For more information on the development in European manufacturing sector, see this article from Eurostat.

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Three-month change: moderate growth in the total production index

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply had a moderate output growth of 0.6 per cent in the period May to July 2021 compared with the previous three-month period. Extraction of crude petroleum saw an increase of 3.1 per cent, while extraction of natural gas fell with 2.6 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this period, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was a clear output decrease of 4.3 per cent in the period May to July 2021 compared with the previous three-month period. In the same period, mining and quarrying and Norwegian electricity supply both saw an increase of 1.1 per cent.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishment have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.