The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the period February-April 2022 amounted to 119.5 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous three-month period was 118.5. After a clear fall in February, the activity levels in the manufacturing sector has increased in March and April (see figure 1).

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures¹. 2005=100

¹ March 2020 and the subsequent months are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine. Hence, the trend figures for 2020 are not included in the figure.

Monthly change: growth in repair and installation of machinery

According to , manufacturing output increased by 1.0 per cent from March to April 2022. Repair and installation of machinery contributed the most in the positive direction with an increase of 4.2 per cent. There was also growth within computer and electrical equipment. Many businesses within these industries reported of large projects and good market conditions in April.

On the other hand, food products had an output fall of 1.1 per cent.

Three-month change: moderate growth in manufacturing output

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output saw an increase of 0.8 per cent in the period February-April 2022 compared to the previous three-month period. Repair and installation of machinery had the largest weighted increase with a growth of 2.8 percent. On the other hand, basic chemicals saw a marked fall of 10.4 per cent in this three-month period.

Looking at the same period there was an increase in of 2.4 per cent.

Figure 2. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Monthly change: output fall in the Euro area in March

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the had a decline of 1.6 per cent from February to March 2022. In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing production grew by 1.4 per cent.

Sweden saw an increase of 1.7 per cent in the same period, while Denmark had a clear output growth of 5.2 per cent.

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Three-month change: growth in the total production index

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply had an output increase of 2.2 per cent in the period February to April 2022 compared with the previous three-month period. Extraction of crude petroleum was unchanged, also unchanged was the extraction of natural gas. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this period, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was an output increase of 1.6 per cent in this three-month period. In the same period, mining and quarrying saw a decline of 5.4 per cent, while production within Norwegian electricity fell by 3.1 per cent.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishments have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the calendar-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April is greater than normal due to the changed placing of Easter. This effect will also affect the seasonally-adjusted figures for the 1st and 2nd quarters. This is accounted for when adjusting for seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all impacts.