The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the period June - August 2021 amounted to 119 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous three-month period was 119,5. Figures for the last months indicate that the production activity has leveled out.

¹ March 2020 and the subsequent months are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine. Hence, the trend figures for 2020 are not included in the figure.

Monthly change: decline in wood and wood products, increase in food products

According to , manufacturing output was unchanged from July to August 2021. Even though total manufacturing output was unchanged, there were great differences within the different industries. Wood and wood products contributed the most to pull down the overall manufacturing output with a decline of as much as 19.4 per cent. The decline is related to a shortfall in delivery of raw materials and somewhat changed vacation patterns compared to previous years. In addition, the industry group rubber, plastic and mineral products, together with building of ships, boats and oil platforms also contributed negatively with a decrease of 9.4 and 9.8 per cent respectively.

On the other hand, food products saw an increase in manufacturing output of 5.8 per cent. This growth is related to an increase within processing and preserving of fish due to unusually high slaughter volumes of pelagic fish for this time of year. In addition, the industry group refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals also registered a production increase in August.

Three-month change: plastic products pulls down overall manufacturing output

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output saw a small decrease of 0.4 per cent in the period June to August 2021 compared with the previous three-month period. The industry group rubber, plastic and mineral products contributed the most to pull down the overall manufacturing output, with a decline of 8.1 per cent. Plastic products in particular saw a large decrease in activity. Businesses within this industry reported shutdowns and reorganization of production as reasons for lower output, amongst other things. In addition, there was also a decline in manufacturing output in machinery and equipment and in repair and installation of machinery compared to the last period.

On the other hand, the overall manufacturing decline was dampened by production growth in computer and electrical equipment, and in fabricated metal products in this three-month period.

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Monthly change: output in the Euro area increased in July 2021

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the increased with 1.8 per cent from June to July 2021.

In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing production fell by 0.6 per cent. Sweden had a marginal production decrease of 0.2 per cent, while Denmark saw a clear growth of 3.2 per cent.

For more information on the development in European manufacturing sector, see this article from Eurostat.

Three-month change: growth in the total production index

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply had an output growth of 1.8 per cent in the period June to August 2021 compared with the previous three-month period. Extraction of crude petroleum saw an increase of 4.6 per cent, while extraction of natural gas had a growth of 4.0 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this period, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was an output decrease of 2.5 per cent in the period June to August 2021 compared with the previous three-month period. In the same period, mining and quarrying fell by 6.2 per cent, while Norwegian electricity supply decreased by 5.5 per cent.

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishment have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.