The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the period March-May 2022 amounted to 118.8 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous three-month period was 118.1. After an increase in March and April, there was a clear fall in May (see figure 1).

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures¹. 2005=100

¹ March 2020 to March 2022 are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine. Hence, this period are not included in the figure.

Monthly change: output fall in the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals

According to , manufacturing output decreased by 2.2 per cent from April to May 2022. The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals contributed the most to the fall with a decrease of 9.1 per cent.

The decline can be seen in connection with maintenance shutdowns in several large companies in this industry grouping in May, says Higher Executive Officer Lars Jacob Balchen Dale.

There was also fall in output of 3.9 per cent within the industry grouping repair and installation of machinery.

On the other hand the industry for food products had an increase of 1.7 per cent from April to May.

Three-month change: moderate growth in manufacturing output

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output saw an increase of 0.6 per cent in the period March-May 2022 compared to the previous three-month period. The industry grouping rubber, plastic and mineral production had the largest weighted increase with a growth of 6.2 percent.

On the other hand, basic chemicals saw a marked fall of 19.5 per cent in this three-month period. This decrease must be seen in connection with maintenance shutdowns.

Figure 2. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Monthly change: output fall in the Euro area in April

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the had a decline of 0.5 per cent from March to April 2022. In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing production grew by 1.0 per cent.

Sweden saw a decrease of 1.3 per cent in the same period, while Denmark had an output growth of 1.1 per cent.

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Three-month change: growth in the total production index

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply had an output increase of 2.2 per cent in the period March to May 2022 compared with the previous three-month period. Extraction of natural gas and crude petroleum increased by 2.6 and 0.7 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this period, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was an output increase of 1.5 per cent in this three-month period. In the same period, mining and quarrying saw a decline of 10.2 per cent, while production within Norwegian electricity increased by 1.3 per cent.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishments was affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona-crisis was done in such a way that the figures from the start of the crisis (from March 2020) to the measures ended (February 2022), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine it was done by specifying the months from March 2020 up to and including March 2022 as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated within that period, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. The trend figures from March 2020 to March 2022 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.