The business tendency survey for the 3rd quarter of 2026 shows that the overall manufacturing production was slightly higher in the third. The majority of producers of Covers industries such as wood and wood products, paper and paper products, basic chemicals and basic metals. Often referred to as traditional export industries. report a clear increase in production. Within this product category, it is non-ferrous metals—under the metal industry sector—that are primarily driving the growth. Producers of Covers industries such as food products and beverages, printing and reproduction, pharmaceuticals and furniture. report a moderate increase in production, while producers of Covers industries such as machinery and equipment, ships, boats and oil platforms, repair and installation. Often referred to as the engineering industry. report unchanged production. Many companies in the capital goods sector are suppliers to the oil and gas industry. This type of goods has shown clear growth for three years, up to and including the second quarter of 2025. This growth is clearly linked to the oil tax package passed during the pandemic, which led to strong investment growth on the Norwegian continental shelf during these years, especially in field development. A large number of developments were started at the end of 2022, which resulted in large orders for producers of capital goods, especially in the shipbuilding and oil platform industry. Based on the latest investment survey for oil and gas, investments appear to have peaked in the 2nd quarter of 2025. Since then, investments have fallen moderately. This is consistent with the growth up to and including the 2nd quarter of 2025 in capital goods, and the subsequent production decline from the 3rd quarter of the last year.
After several years of growth in overall employment, industrial leaders have reported a flat trend in employment—taken as a whole—over the last four quarters. For the 3rd quarter, producers of capital goods are reporting increased employment, while producers of consumer goods report marginal growth, and producers of intermediate goods are reporting unchanged employment.
Marginal growth in total stock of orders
Overall, manufacturing leaders report a slightly increase of new orders from the export market in the 3rd quarter. This increment is reflected in the results from producers of intermediate goods, while producers of capital goods report unchanged new orders. Producers of consumer goods report a slight decline. Manufacturing leaders report a slight increase in new orders from the domestic markets.
For the manufacturing sector as a whole, a marginal increase in the total stock of orders is reported for the 3rd quarter. For producers of intermediate goods, there is a moderate increase in total stock of orders, while producers of consumer goods and capital goods report unchanged total stock of orders.
The majority of leaders also report continued growth in the price level for both the domestic and export markets for the industry as a whole in the 3rd quarter. There is price growth for all types of goods in both markets.
A large number of manufacturing leaders report continued growth in The development in the prices that the company pays for the goods and services that are included in the production (product input), and on the prices of production equipment and facilities used in the production process. in the 3rd quarter. There is clear growth in input prices for all types of goods. Since the rise in cost prices is more pronounced than for product prices, it is not surprising that there are reports of falling The development in the profitability of the company's sales of goods or services. Profitability means the change in the difference between current operating expenses and current operating revenues. in manufacturing for all producers in the 3rd quarter.
Positive expectations for the 4th quarter 2026
The general outlook for the 4th quarter is positive for the industry as a whole, and the optimism is broadly based across the different types of goods.
Manufacturing leaders expect higher production volume and slightly higher employment in the 4th quarter, compared to the 3rd quarter of this year. An increase in new orders is also expected from both the domestic market and the export market. The total stock of orders is also expected to increase in the 4th quarter.
It is the producers of intermediate and consumer goods who report the best future prospects. They expect increased production, a moderate rise in total stock of orders, and growth in new orders from both markets.
The producers of capital goods expect unchanged production and a moderate increase in the total stock of orders in the 4th quarter, as well as an increased of new orders from both the domestic and export markets.
It is also expected that cost prices and prices of products sold to both the domestic market and the export market will continue to increase in the 4th quarter.
Factors that limit investment
Manufacturing leaders report that investment plans are slightly higher for manufacturing as a whole. The proportion of manufacturing managers who believe that financing costs are limiting factors on investment is relatively high.
The industrial confidence indicator signals an increase in the 4th quarter of 2026
This is the average of the responses (balances) to the questions on expected volume of production, total stock of orders and inventories of own products for sale (the latter with an inverted sign). See Definitions in ‘About the statistics’ for further details. in the 3rd quarter of 2026 was 3.4 (Figures that are adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal variation. Such adjustment gives a more accurate picture of the underlying trend in the time series and makes it easier to compare the results of subsequent quarters.) up from 2.5 in the previous quarter. It is producers of intermediate goods and consumer goods that contribute to the increase in the composite economic indicator being above 0. For capital goods, the indicator is at minus 0.2. The indicator is above the historical average of 2.8.
Values above zero indicate that total output will grow in the forthcoming quarter, while values below zero indicate that total output will fall. International comparisons of the industrial confidence indicator are available from Eurostat (EU), The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Denmark.
Demand limits production
The proportion of industry leaders reporting that weak demand and strong competition limit production is slightly lower now than in the second quarter, but it remains relatively high. In the last quarters, there have been fewer industrial leaders pointing out that the lack of qualified labor is a factor that limits production. The sum of percentages for those who have reported that lack of qualified labour and raw materials/electric power limits production, plus the percentage of establishments with capacity utilisation above 95 per cent. indicator, which was very high in connection with the pandemic, has fallen a lot in recent years. After the decline continued through last year, the indicator has risen somewhat over the past two quarters.
The average How much of the available production capacity is utilised. A high-capacity utilisation means that it is difficult to produce more without investing, while a low-capacity utilisation means having capacity that is not being used. for Norwegian manufacturing was calculated to 77.8 per cent at the end of the 3rd quarter. The capacity utilization rate can change either if production changes or if production capacity changes, or a combination of these. The capacity utilisation is still below than the historical average. International comparisons of average capacity utilisation are available from Eurostat (EU).
Timelines
The survey data was collected in the period from September 9 to October 20.
