The increase in estimates is mainly driven by higher cost etsimates in production drilling, especially in fields on stream, but also in field development. Clear lower estimates in exploration and concept studies dampen the increase in the investment estimate for next year.
The oil companies' investment estimates for next year are nevertheless 0,9 per cent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2026, given in 3rd quarter of 2025, the statistics oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply show. In the previous measurement in May, a marginal increase of 0.2 percent in 2027 was indicated. The decrease estimated from 2026 to 2027 is mainly driven by lower investment plans in field development. Several of the major ongoing field developments are scheduled to be completed next year, and will therefore have lower investments in 2027. The decline indicated for 2027 is softened by a clearly indicated investment growth in planned fields on stream.
Quarterly investment statistics for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport are included in the survey Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. For more details about total investments, please see the following article.
Investments are expected to level off this year
The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2026 are now estimated at NOK 275 billion. The estimate is 3 percent higher than the estimate given in the previous measurement. This is mainly due to higher investment plans in fields on stream, which push the estimate up compared to the last measurement. A slightly higher estimate in exploration and concept studies also contributes, while lower reported figures in field development dampen the overall increase.
The estimate for 2026 is at roughly the same level as the estimate for 2025, given in the third quarter last year. In the previous measurement, a marginal drop of 1.1 percent was indicated.
As Figure 3 below shows, it now indicates that growth in the categories of shutdown and removals, field development, and onshore activities is matched by a decline in the categories of exploration and concept studies, fields on stream, and pipeline transport.
Oil and gas investments increased sharply in 2023 and 2024, followed by noticeable growth in 2025 as well. The main reason for the growth in these years is that the Norwegian Parliament's 2020 oil tax package encouraged operators on the Norwegian continental shelf to submit development and operation plans (PDOs) for a number of new fields. The growth was particularly strong because favorable taxation required that PDOs be submitted by the end of 2022, which meant that the developments were started roughly at the same time. Usually, the start of developments is spread out more over time. These developments are still shaping investments this year and next. Several of these developments, as well as an older one, were completed late last year or earlier this year, which contributes to lower development investments in 2026. On the other hand, the largest projects are still under construction, and most will hit their investment peak this year. This, along with the fact that there have been several smaller developments in recent years, still indicates a slight increase in the development investments this year. Clearly lower indicated exploration activity and somewhat lower planned investment activity in fields on stream this year still seem to result in roughly unchanged total investments this year.
Estimate jump for 2027
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2027, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at close to NOK 227 billion. This is NOK 21 billion more than estimated in the previous quarter. The increase from the previous measurement comes within fields on stream, field development, and shutdown and removal. The higher estimate for fields on stream is related to the decision on new projects and drilling campaigns on several fields. It is production drilling that contributes most to the increased estimate for fields on stream. The increase in field development is mainly due to the submission of PDOs for three new development projects since the last measurement. All of these are planned to have the highest activity next year. Exploration and concept studies are moving in the opposite direction, with estimates falling by a full 21 percent since the previous measurement in May. It is exploration drilling that contributes most to the lower exploration estimate. For drilling several of the production wells within fields on stream, floating rigs are used, which are also used for exploration drilling. It is therefore not surprising that much higher planned drilling activity in production drilling displaces planned exploration drilling.
The estimate for investments in pipeline transport and oil and gas extraction for 2027 is now 0.9 percent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2026, given in the third quarter last year. As figure 4 above shows, it’s especially field development that’s driving the decline. Fields on stream are going in the opposite direction, where a clear growth is indicated for next year, thus helping to soften the drop in total investments.
Investment growth in the 2nd quarter
The final investments in the 2nd quarter came to NOK 69.2 billion. This is 6.7 per cent lower than estimated in the previous measurement, but 12.5 per cent higher than the investments given in the previous measurement, unadjusted. The seasonally adjusted growth from the 1st to the 2nd quarter was 0.9 per cent. The reason why the seasonally adjusted investment growth is clearly lower than the unadjusted growth is that investment tends to be higher in the 2nd quarter than in the 1st quarter. The increase in 2nd quarter was mainly driven by gains in fields on stream.
The annual forecast for 2026 indicates growth in the second half
Investments in the first half of this year are 1.2 per cent lower than investments made in the first half of 2025. On this basis, things are a bit behind schedule in the sense that the current estimate for all of 2026 indicates a marginal drop of 0.1 percent. With investments of 131 billion kroner carried out in the first half of the year, investments of 144 billion kroner are assumed for the second half, in order for the current estimate for 2026 to be realized. That would represent an increase of about 10 percent from the first to the second half. Last year, growth from the first to the second half was 6.3 percent.
The increase planned for the second half of this year is largely driven by higher planned activity in production drilling on fields on stream, which is a type of activity that can more easily be decided to be postponed compared to other types of field investments. Production drilling is also the investment category most sensitive to changes and volatility in oil and gas prices, since it’s the type of investment activity that can most quickly change oil and gas production. Investment levels in this category for the second half of the year could therefore be affected by geopolitical developments in the Middle East.