The business tendency survey for the 3rd quarter of 2025 shows modest growth in the overall manufacturing production compared to the previous quarter. The majority of Covers industries such as wood and wood products, paper and paper products, basic chemicals and basic metals. Often referred to as traditional export industries. and Covers industries such as food products and beverages, printing and reproduction, pharmaceuticals and furniture.s producers report a moderate increase in production, while the producers of Covers industries such as machinery and equipment, ships, boats and oil platforms, repair and installation. Often referred to as the engineering industry. report a production decline. This contrasts with the previous quarter when this type of product showed an increase in production. Many companies in the capital goods sector supply goods to the oil and gas sector. This type of producer has shown clear growth over three years, and the growth is clearly linked to strong investment growth on the Norwegian continental shelf during these years. Based on estimates provided in the latest investment survey for oil and gas, investments appear to have peaked in the second quarter and are expected to decline somewhat in the second half of the year compared to the investment level in the second quarter. This corresponds well with the moderate production decline in the third quarter within capital goods, as this survey shows.
Industrial leaders report growth in total industrial employment in the 3rd quarter. It is the producers of capital goods that are responsible for most of the growth. Producers of consumer goods and intermediate goods also reports an increase in employment. Although total employment is increasing, the growth rate is slightly lower than in the previous quarter.
Decline in total stock of orders
Overall, industrial leaders report a decline of new orders from the domestic market in the 3rd quarter. Regarding the domestic market, it is the producers of capital goods and intermediate goods who are experiencing a decline, while the majority of consumer goods producers report a moderate increase. For the export market, a more significant decline in new order is reported compared to the domestic market. Producers of all types of goods report a decrease in new order from the export market.
For the manufacturing sector as a whole, a decline in the total stock of orders is reported for the 3rd quarter. Producers of intermediate and capital goods report a more significant decline in total stock of order, while for producers of consumer goods the decline is more moderate.
The majority of leaders also report continued growth in the price level for both the domestic and export markets for the industry as a whole in the third quarter, but price growth has gradually declined over the past year. There is price growth for all types of producers in both markets, except that unchanged prices are reported for the export market from producers of intermediate goods.
A large number of manufacturing leaders report continued growth in The development in the prices that the company pays for the goods and services that are included in the production (product input), and on the prices of production equipment and facilities used in the production process. in the 3rd quarter. It is the producers of consumer goods that have the clearest growth in cost prices. Since the rise in cost prices is more pronounced than for product prices, it is not surprising that there are reports of falling The development in the profitability of the company's sales of goods or services. Profitability means the change in the difference between current operating expenses and current operating revenues. in manufacturing for all producers in the 3rd quarter.
Slightly positive expectations for the 4th quarter of 2025
The general outlook for the 4th quarter of 2025 is slightly positive for the industry as a whole, and somewhat lower than the assessments we saw at the end of 2024. Producer of capital goods remain positive about the upcoming quarter. Producer of consumer goods have neutral expectations for the upcoming quarter, while producers of intermediate goods, they are slightly negative.
Manufacturing leaders expects moderately higher production volume and no change in average employment in the 4th quarter, compared to the 3rd quarter this year. A moderate increase in new orders is also expected from both the domestic and export markets. The total stocks of orders are expected to increase slightly in the 4th quarter.
It is the producers of capital goods who report the best future prospects. They still expect continued growth in production and employment, and growth in new orders from both markets, and an increase in the total stock of orders.
The producers of intermediate goods and consumer goods report somewhat weaker future prospects. Both expect growth in overall production and new orders from the domestic markets. While the total stock of orders is expected to increase slightly for producers of consumer goods, it is expected to fall slightly for producers of intermediate goods. For intermediate goods, employment is expected to be unchanged in the 4th quarter, while for producers of consumer goods employment is expected to be lower compared with the previous quarter.
It is also expected that cost prices and prices of products sold to both the domestic market and the export market will continue to increase in the 4th quarter.
Factors that limit investment
Manufacturing leaders report that investment plans remain unchanged for manufacturing as a whole. The proportion of manufacturing managers who believe that expected development in demand are limiting factors on investment, is still relatively high.
The industrial confidence indicator signals a slight decline in the 4th quarter
This is the average of the responses (balances) to the questions on expected volume of production, total stock of orders and inventories of own products for sale (the latter with an inverted sign). See Definitions in ‘About the statistics’ for further details. in the 3rd quarter of 2025 was -0.3 (Figures that are adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal variation. Such adjustment gives a more accurate picture of the underlying trend in the time series and makes it easier to compare the results of subsequent quarters.) down from 0,4 in the previous quarter. Producers of both capital goods and intermediate goods contribute to the decline in the composite economic indicator from the previous quarter, while producers of consumer goods contribute positively. The indicator is now belove the historical average of 2.8.
Values above zero indicate that total output will grow in the forthcoming quarter, while values below zero indicate that total output will fall. International comparisons of the industrial confidence indicator are available from Eurostat (EU), The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Denmark.
Demand limits production
The proportion of industry leaders reporting that weak demand and strong competition limit production is still relatively high and has been fairly stable for the past two years. In the last quarters, there have been fewer industrial leaders pointing out that the lack of qualified labor is a factor that limits production. The sum of percentages for those who have reported that lack of qualified labour and raw materials/electric power limits production, plus the percentage of establishments with capacity utilisation above 95 per cent., which was very high in connection with the pandemic, has stabilized at lower levels in the past year.
The average How much of the available production capacity is utilised. A high-capacity utilisation means that it is difficult to produce more without investing, while a low-capacity utilisation means having capacity that is not being used. for Norwegian manufacturing was calculated to 77.4 per cent at the end of the 3rd quarter. The level is the lowest since the third quarter of 2020. The capacity utilization rate can change either if production changes or if production capacity changes, or a combination of these. The capacity utilisation is still at barely below than the historical average of 80.0 per cent. International comparisons of average capacity utilisation are available from Eurostat (EU).
Timelines
The survey data was collected in the period from 5 september to 14 october 2025.
