The increase in estimates is mainly driven by higher cost etsimates in production drilling, especially in fields on stream, but also in field development. Clear lower estimates in exploration and concept studies dampen the increase in the investment estimate for next year.
The oil companies' investment estimates for next year are nevertheless 4.5 per cent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2025, given in 3rd quarter of 2024, the statistics oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply show. It is approximately the same decline as indicated in the previous measurement. The decline estimated from 2025 to 2026 is mainly driven by lower investment plans in field development.
Quarterly investment statistics for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport are included in the survey Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. For more details about total investments, please see the following article.
Upwardly revised estimate for 2025
The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2025 are now estimated at NOK 275 billion, which is historically the highest nominal estimate given since this statistic was created.
The estimate is 2.1 per cent higher than in the previous survey. It is mainly higher investment plans within services under the main category of fields on stream that raise the estimate compared to the previous measurement. A higher estimate in exploration and concept studies also contributes, while lower reported figures in field development dampen the overall increase in estimates.
The estimate is also 6.9 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2024, given in 3rd quarter last year. In the previous poll, a percentage growth of 9 percent was indicated. As Figure 2 above shows, the estimate for 2024 increased a year ago more than is the case for 2025 now.
As figure 3 above shows, the indicated increase from 2024 to 2025 is mainly due to significantly higher investments in fields on stream. Additionally, the estimates for exploration and concept studies, onshore activities, and pipeline transport contribute somewhat higher investments in 2025. Field development and shutdown and removal go in the opposite direction and dampen growth in 2025.
Estimate jump for 2026
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2026, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at close to NOK 230 billion. This is NOK 23 billion more than estimated in the previous quarter.
The increase from the previous measurement occurs within fields on stream, field development, onshore activities, and shutdown and removal. The higher estimate within fields on stream is related to the decision to initiate new projects and drilling campaigns in several fields. Production drilling contributes the most to the increased estimate within fields on stream. Exploration and pipeline transportation go in the opposite direction and help to mitigate the increase in estimates. Within exploration, it is the exploration drilling that contributes most to the lower estimate. For drilling several of the production wells, floating rigs that are also used for exploration drilling are employed. It is therefore not suprising that the much higher planned drilling activity in production drilling displaces the planned exploration drilling.
The estimate for investments in pipeline transportation and extraction of oil and gas for 2026 is now 4.5 per cent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2025, given in the 3rd quarter of last year. As figure 4 above shows, it is especially field development that is driving the decline, but exploration and concept studies as well as pipeline transport are also contributing. For the categories of fields on stream, shutdown and removal, and onshore activities, however, an investment growth is indicated for next year.
Strong investment growth in the 2nd quarter
The final investments in the 2nd quarter came to record high NOK 71.3 billion. This is only 2.7 per cent lower than estimated in the previous measurement, but as much as 17 percent higher than the incurred investments in the 1st quarter, unadjusted. The seasonally adjusted growth from the 1st to the 2nd quarter was 7.6 per cent. The reason why the seasonally adjusted investment growth is clearly lower than the unadjusted growth is that investment tends to be higher in the 2nd quarter than in the 1st quarter. Investments made in the 2nd quarter were nominally 12 percent higher than in the 2nd quarter of last year. The increase in 2nd quarter was mainly driven by an increase in fields on stream and pipeline transportation.
The annual forecast for 2025 indicates moderate growth in the second half
Investments in the first half of this year are 11 per cent higher than investments made in the first half of 2024. On this basis, one is ahead of schedule in the sense that the current estimate for the entire 2025 indicates a growth of 6.9 percent. With investments of NOK 132 billion in the first half of the year, investments of NOK 143 billion are assumed in the second half of the year, in order for the current estimate for 2025 to be realised. In that case, this will represent an increase of about 8 per cent from the 1st to the 2nd half of the year. Last year, the growth from the 1st to the 2nd half of the year was as much as 11 per cent.
The increase projected for the second half of this year is largely driven by increased planned activity in production drilling, which is a type of activity that can more easily be decided to be postponed compared to other types of field investments. Production drilling is the category of investments that is also most sensitive to changes and volatility in oil and gas prices, as it is this type of investment activity that can most quickly alter oil and gas production. With lower and more volatile oil prices over the past four months and lower gas prices so far this year, there is a risk that some of the planned drilling campaigns may be postponed.
Historical figures from the statistics show that the estimate for investment measurement in August in the statistical year has averaged about 3.2 percent higher than the final investment figures over the past 20 years. However, in two of the last three years, the estimate given in August has been lower than the final figures. This, along with the relatively low growth projected for the second half in the census's estimate, makes it entirely possible that the investments currently estimated for 2025 will be realized.