The key assumptions of the model are:
- In the base year, supply equals demand. Hence, the model does not account for any existing teacher shortages but focuses on whether the situation will improve or worsen in the long term.
- The production of new teachers is assumed to remain constant. This is not because we expect production to stay unchanged, but because it allows us to assess whether the current level of production is sustainable over time.
- The model calculates overall supply and demand for educated teachers, including those who work outside the teaching sector. As a result, any estimated surplus or deficit is distributed across the various employment sectors included in the model. The sectoral distribution each year equals the distribution in the base year. This is a sound assumption if relative wages across the employment sectors are maintained.
- Demand and supply are calculated separately.
- The demand for teachers is demographically driven and based on Statistics Norway's population projection.
Our new projections suggest:
- Increased shortage of kindergarten teachers
- Decreased shortage of compulsory education teachers
- Decreased shortage of subject teachers for middle schools and high schools
- Increased shortage of teachers in practical and aesthetic subjects
- Increased shortage of vocational teachers