The index value for turnover in manufacturing was 169.4 (2005=100) in the second quarter of 2021 compared to 165.7 in the first quarter of 2021, according to Seasonally-adjusted figures: In order to facilitate the interpretation of the short-term development, statistics on turnover publish three-month moving averages of the seasonally-adjusted figures. We normally compare the latest non-overlapping three-month periods. Seasonally-adjusted monthly changes must be interpreted with caution..

Figure 1. Index of turnover for manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Three-month change: growth in manufacturing turnover in the export market

Total Norwegian manufacturing turnover increased by 2.2 per cent from the first to the second quarter of 2021. The increase came from the export market where the turnover was up 7.8 per cent. The domestic market had a decrease of 0.5 per cent.

Basic chemicals contributed the most to the increase in manufacturing turnover with an increase of 9,8 per cent. Fabricated metal products also contributed to this increase with an increase of 7.4 per cent.

Building of ships and oil platforms and the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products contributed the most to curbing the increase in manufacturing turnover.

Monthly change: increased turnover for fabricated metal products

Seasonally-adjusted figures show that the turnover in Norwegian manufacturing increased by 1.8 per cent from May to June 2021 according to seasonally-adjusted figures.

Fabricated metal products contributed the most to the positive development in manufacturing turnover with its increase of 27 per cent in the period. Building of ships and oil platforms and basic chemicals also contributed to the positive development in manufacturing turnover.

Decreased turnover in the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products and machinery and equipment contributed the most to curbing the increase in manufacturing turnover.

Figure 2. Selected industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Monthly change: decrease in manufacturing turnover in the euro area in May 2021

Manufacturing turnover in the euro area decreased by 0.7 percent from April to May 2021, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. Total Norwegian manufacturing turnover increased by 1.1 percent in the same period. In the other Scandinavian countries, the turnover in Denmark and Sweden was up by 2.3 and 0.2 per cent respectively, according to Eurostat.

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishment have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and the following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.