The business tendency survey for the 4th quarter of 2025 shows modest decline in the overall manufacturing production compared to the previous quarter. The majority of producers of Covers industries such as wood and wood products, paper and paper products, basic chemicals and basic metals. Often referred to as traditional export industries. report a moderate increase in production, while producers of Covers industries such as food products and beverages, printing and reproduction, pharmaceuticals and furniture. report unchanged production. Producers of Covers industries such as machinery and equipment, ships, boats and oil platforms, repair and installation. Often referred to as the engineering industry. report a clear decline in production, following a more moderate decline in the third quarter. Many companies in the capital goods sector supply products to the oil and gas industry. This type of goods has shown clear growth for three years, up to and including the second quarter of 2025. The growth is clearly related to strong investment growth on the Norwegian continental shelf in recent years, particularly in field development. A large number of developments were initiated at the end of 2022, which generated significant orders for producers of capital goods, especially in the industry of ship and oil platform construction, where the shipyards that build the platforms for the new fields are included. Based on estimates provided in the latest investment survey for oil and gas, investments appear to have peaked in the 2nd quarter and have declined moderately in the 3rd quarter. This aligns well with the growth up to and including the 2nd quarter of 2025 in investment goods, and the subsequent production decline in the 3rd quarter.
After several years of growth in total employment, industry leaders are now reporting unchanged employment in the 4th quarter. Producers of capital goods and intermediate goods report unchanged employment, while producers of consumer goods report a slight decline.
Decline in total stock of orders
Overall, industrial leaders report a decline of new orders from the domestic market in the 4th quarter. Regarding the domestic market, it is the producers of capital goods and intermediate goods who are experiencing a decline, while the majority of consumer goods producers report unchanged new orders. For the export market, all types of goods report a decline.
For the manufacturing sector as a whole, a decline in the total stock of orders is reported for the 4th quarter. Producers of consumer and capital goods report a significant decline in total stock of order, while for producers of intermediate goods the decline is more moderate.
The majority of leaders also report continued growth in the price level for both the domestic and export markets for the industry as a whole in the 4th quarter. There is price growth for all types of goods in both markets. It is producers of consumer goods who report the most noticeable price increases.
A large number of manufacturing leaders report continued growth in The development in the prices that the company pays for the goods and services that are included in the production (product input), and on the prices of production equipment and facilities used in the production process. in the 4th quarter. It is the producers of consumer goods that have the clearest growth in cost prices. Since the rise in cost prices is more pronounced than for product prices, it is not surprising that there are reports of falling The development in the profitability of the company's sales of goods or services. Profitability means the change in the difference between current operating expenses and current operating revenues. in manufacturing for all producers in the 4th quarter.
Positive expectations for the 1st quarter of 2026
The general outlook for the 1st quarter of 2026 is positive for the industry as a whole, and the optimism is broadly based across the different types of goods.
Manufacturing leaders expect higher production volume and slightly increasing average employment in the 1st quarter, compared to the 4th quarter last year. An increase in new orders is also expected from both the domestic market and the export market. The total stock of orders is also expected to rise in the first quarter.
It is the producers of intermediate goods who report the best future prospects. They expect clear growth in production and moderate growth in employment, and growth in new orders from both markets, and an increase in the total stock of orders.
The producers of capital goods and consumer goods report somewhat weaker prospects for the 1st quarter. Both expect growth in overall production, new orders from the domestic market and stock of orders. While new orders from the export market for producers of capital goods is expected to increase in the 1st quarter, it is expected to remain unchanged for producers of consumer goods. For capital goods, a slight increase in average employment is expected in the 1st quarter, whereas for producers of consumer goods, a decline in employment is expected compared with the 4th quarter.
It is also expected that cost prices and prices of products sold to both the domestic market and the export market will continue to increase in the 1st quarter.
Factors that limit investment
Manufacturing leaders report that investment plans are slightly declining for manufacturing as a whole. The proportion of manufacturing managers who believe that financing costs are limiting factors on investment is still relatively high.
The industrial confidence indicator signals a moderate increase in the 1st quarter of 2026
The This is the average of the responses (balances) to the questions on expected volume of production, total stock of orders and inventories of own products for sale (the latter with an inverted sign). See Definitions in ‘About the statistics’ for further details. in the 4th quarter of 2025 was 2.6 (Figures that are adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal variation. Such adjustment gives a more accurate picture of the underlying trend in the time series and makes it easier to compare the results of subsequent quarters.-adjusted) down from 0.2 in the previous quarter. Producers of both consumer goods and intermediate goods contribute to the increase in the composite economic indicator from the previous quarter. The indicator is now near the historical average of 2.8.
Values above zero indicate that total output will grow in the forthcoming quarter, while values below zero indicate that total output will fall. International comparisons of the industrial confidence indicator are available from Eurostat (EU) (ec.europa.eu), The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research (konj.se) and Statistics Denmark (dst.dk).
Demand limits production
The proportion of industry leaders reporting that weak demand and strong competition limit production is still relatively high and has been fairly stable for the past two years. In the last quarters, there have been fewer industrial leaders pointing out that the lack of qualified labor is a factor that limits production. The The sum of percentages for those who have reported that lack of qualified labour and raw materials/electric power limits production, plus the percentage of establishments with capacity utilisation above 95 per cent., which was very high in connection with the pandemic, has fallen a lot in recent years, and the decline has continued in the last quarters.
The average How much of the available production capacity is utilised. A high capacity utilisation means that it is difficult to produce more without investing, while a low capacity utilisation means having capacity that is not being used. for Norwegian manufacturing was calculated to 77.5 per cent at the end of the 4th quarter, as in the previous quarter. The level for the last two quarters is the lowest since the third quarter of 2020. The capacity utilization rate can change either if production changes or if production capacity changes, or a combination of these. The capacity utilisation is still below than the historical average of 80.0 per cent. International comparisons of average capacity utilisation are available from Eurostat (EU) (ec.europa.eu).
Timelines
The survey data was collected in the period from 5 December 2025 to 13 January 2026.
