The business tendency survey for the 2nd quarter of 2025 shows that overall manufacturing production in the second quarter was higher compared to the previous quarter. Most Covers industries such as wood and wood products, paper and paper products, basic chemicals and basic metals. Often referred to as traditional export industries. and Covers industries such as food products and beverages, printing and reproduction, pharmaceuticals and furniture. producers report a small increase in production. The producers of Covers industries such as machinery and equipment, ships, boats and oil platforms, repair and installation. Often referred to as the engineering industry. report a clear increase in production. After moderate declines throughout 2023, overall industrial production has gradually picked up, and there has been an increasing, yet still relatively moderate, growth in the last few quarters.
Industrial leaders report growth in total industrial employment in the 2nd quarter. It is the producers of capital goods that are responsible for most of the growth. Producers of consumer goods and intermediate goods also reports an increase in employment.
The growth in capital goods in the last couple of years has been driven by high activity in the supplier industry, which can be linked to the high oil and gas investments.
Unchanged total stock of orders
Overall, industrial leaders report unchanged level of new orders from the domestic market in the 2nd quarter.
Producers of intermediate goods report unchanged new orders from the domestic market, while the majority of producers of consumer goods report a small increase in new orders. For producers of capital goods, new orders from the domestic market are reported to be lower than in the previous quarter. From the export market, industrial leaders report decreasing new orders in the 2nd quarter. Producers of intermediate goods report unchanged new orders from the export market while producers of capital goods and consumer goods report a decrease in new orders from the export market.
For the manufacturing sector as a whole, there is no change in the total stock of orders during the 2nd quarter. Producers of intermediate goods report a small increase in total stocks of order while producers of consumer goods report unchanged stock of orders, Producers of capital goods report a moderate decrease in total stock of orders in the 2nd quarter.
Many industrial managers are reporting growth in the prices, both in domestic and export market for overall manufacturing in the 2nd quarter, but the price increase has gradually been lower over the past year. There is price increase for all types of goods except that unchanged prices are reported for the export market from producers of input goods. Overall, the price level for the export market is increasing to a lesser extent than on the domestic market in this quarter.
A large number of manufacturing leaders report continued growth in The development in the prices that the company pays for the goods and services that are included in the production (product input), and on the prices of production equipment and facilities used in the production process. in the 2nd quarter. It is the producers of consumer goods that have the clearest growth in cost prices. Since the rise in cost prices is more pronounced than for product prices, it is not surprising that there are reports of falling The development in the profitability of the company's sales of goods or services. Profitability means the change in the difference between current operating expenses and current operating revenues. in manufacturing in the 2nd quarter.
Neutral expectations for the 3rd quarter of 2025
The general outlook for the 3rd quarter of 2025 is neutral for manufacturing. Expectations for the next quarter in the survey have shifted from being clearly positive a few quarters ago, and have then gradually become less positive, and are now neutral. Producers of capital goods are still a bit positive about the coming quarter, while producers of intermediate goods and consumer goods are now in the lower part of the area we define as neutral expectations for the 3rd quarter of this year.
Manufacturing leaders expect higher production volumes and growth in average employment in the 3rd quarter, compared with the 2nd quarter. An increase in new orders is expected from both the domestic and export markets. The total stock of orders is also expected to increase in the 3rd quarter.
It is still the producers of capital goods who report the best future prospects. They still expect continued clear growth in production and employment, and growth in new orders from both markets, and an increase in the total stock of orders. But the growth prospects are clearly more subdued than they were for the next quarter three months ago.
The producers of intermediate goods and consumer goods report somewhat weaker future prospects. Both expect growth in overall production and new orders from the domestic markets. While the total stock of orders is expected to increase slightly for producers of consumer goods, it is expected to fall slightly for producers of intermediate goods. For intermediate goods, employment is expected to be unchanged in the 3rd quarter, while for producers of consumer goods employment is expected to be lower compared with the previous quarter.
It is also expected that cost prices and prices of products sold to both the domestic market and the export market will continue to increase in the 3rd quarter.
Factors that limit investment
Manufacturing leaders report that investment plans remain unchanged for manufacturing as a whole. The proportion of manufacturing managers who believe that expected development in demand are limiting factors on investment, is still relatively high.
The industrial confidence indicator signals a weak growth in the 3rd quarter
The This is the average of the responses (balances) to the questions on expected volume of production, total stock of orders and inventories of own products for sale (the latter with an inverted sign). See Definitions in ‘About the statistics’ for further details. in the 2nd quarter of 2025 was 0.9 (Figures that are adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal variation. Such adjustment gives a more accurate picture of the underlying trend in the time series and makes it easier to compare the results of subsequent quarters.-adjusted) down from 3.4 in the previous quarter. Producers of both capital goods and consumer goods contribute to the decline in the composite economic indicator from the previous quarter, while producers of intermediate goods contribute positively. The indicator is now belove the historical average of 2.9.
Values above zero indicate that total output will grow in the forthcoming quarter, while values below zero indicate that total output will fall. International comparisons of the industrial confidence indicator are available from Eurostat (EU), The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Denmark.
Demand limits production
The proportion of industry leaders reporting that weak demand and strong competition limit production is still relatively high and has been fairly stable for the past two years. In the last quarters, there have been fewer industrial leaders pointing out that the lack of qualified labor is a factor that limits production. The The sum of percentages for those who have reported that lack of qualified labour and raw materials/electric power limits production, plus the percentage of establishments with capacity utilisation above 95 per cent., which was very high in connection with the pandemic, has stabilized at lower levels in the past year.
The average How much of the available production capacity is utilised. A high capacity utilisation means that it is difficult to produce more without investing, while a low capacity utilisation means having capacity that is not being used. for Norwegian manufacturing was calculated to 78.5 per cent at the end of the 2nd quarter. This is marginally lower than at the end of 1st quarter. The capacity utilisation is still at barely below than the historical average of 80.0 per cent. International comparisons of average capacity utilisation are available from Eurostat (EU).
Timelines
The survey data was collected in the period from 5 June 2025 to 22 July 2025.
