The investment survey conducted in August 2021 suggest that total investments within oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply in 2021 will amount to NOK 244 billion. This is a decrease of 2.9 per cent compared with the corresponding figure for 2020, given in August last year. The decrease is mainly due to a substantial investment decline in electricity supply. In addition, lower investments within the oil and gas industry also contribute negatively. For more details about investments within the oil and gas industry, please see the following article. On the other hand, latest estimates for manufacturing indicate an investment growth.

The companies’ newest estimates for 2022 suggest a decline of 5 per cent compared with the corresponding estimates for 2021. A substantial drop in electricity supply together with lower investment activity in oil and gas explains this development. On the other hand, the overall decrease is dampened by a strong investment growth within manufacturing.

Figure 1. Estimated investments collected in 3rd quarter same year

According to Figures that are adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal variation. Such adjustment gives a more accurate picture of the underlying trend in the time series, and makes it easier to compare the results of subsequent quarters., quarterly final investments had the following development from the first to the second quarter of 2021:

  • Oil and gas: -1.6 %
  • Manufacturing : -5.3 %
  • Electricity supply: - 0.8 %

Figure 2. Final investments per quarter. Seasonally adjusted. 2005=100

Thursday the 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. This has led to a change in the investment pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (the 1st quarter), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying the 1st quarter as an outlier.

This means that the usual trend will not be calculated and instead will be trend and seasonally adjusted follow each other. An important exception is the last observation, where the trend figure calculated in the seasonal adjustment routine will only be a projected value and the last observation is not included. The trend figure from the 1st quarter of 2020 and later, is therefore difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.