The investment survey conducted during the second quarter within oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply in 2022 amounted to NOK 231 billion. This is 5.0 per cent lower than the corresponding figure for 2021. The fall can mainly be attributed to a clear decline in investments in oil and gas activities. Manufacturing investments are estimated to increase sharply, while lower investments in power supply contribute negatively compared with the corresponding figures for 2021.

Figure 1. Estimated investments collected in 2nd quarter same year. Mill. current NOK

Companies’ latest total investment estimates for 2023 indicate a slightly decline of 1.3 per cent compared with the corresponding figures of 2022

The decrease in 2023 is driven by a sharp fall in investment within oil and gas activities. For electricity supply moderate growth is expected, while investment in manufacturing is expected to increase sharply in 2023. For more details about investments within the oil and gas industry, please see the following article.

According to Figures that are adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal variation. Such adjustment gives a more accurate picture of the underlying trend in the time series and makes it easier to compare the results of subsequent quarters.], quarterly final investments had following development from the 4th quarter of 2021 to the 1st quarter of 2022:

  • Oil and gas: -2,0 %
  • Manufacturing: -0,1 %
  • Electricity supply: -0,1 %

Figure 2. Final investments per quarter. Index. Seasonally adjusted. 2005=100

Thursday the 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. This has led to a change in the investment pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (the 1st quarter), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying the 1st quarter as an outlier.

This means that the usual trend will not be calculated and instead will be trend and seasonally adjusted follow each other. An important exception is the last observation, where the trend figure calculated in the seasonal adjustment routine will only be a projected value and the last observation is not included. The trend figure from the 1st quarter of 2020 and later, is therefore difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.