This corresponds to an increase of 4.3 percent. The upward adjustment for 2026 is largely driven by higher estimates within the field development category. The increase is partly due to the submission of plan for development and operation (PDO) for three projects. These are redevelopments of previously shut-down fields. Most of the increase, however, is due to higher planned investments in ongoing developments.
The investment estimate for 2026 now indicates a nominal decrease of 1.1 percent compared to the corresponding estimate for 2025, given a year ago, the statistics oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply show. In the previous survey, a growth of a marginal 0.6 percent was suggested. The reason that a small decline is now indicated is that the estimate for 2025 in the second quarter last year increased slightly more than the estimate for 2026 is increasing now, as figure 2 below illustrates.
Quarterly investment statistics for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport are included in the survey Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. For more details about total investments, please see the following article.
Investments are expected to level off this year
Oil and gas investments increased sharply in 2023 and 2024, and there was clear growth also in 2025.The main reason for the growth in these years is that the Norwegian Parliament's oil tax package from 2020 incentivized operators on the Norwegian continental shelf to submit a plan for development and operation (PDO) for several new fields. The growth was particularly strong since favorable taxation required that the PDO had to be submitted before the end of 2022, which led to the developments being initiated around the same time. Usually, the start of developments is spread out more over time. The smallest of these developments have been completed and are operational, while the largest are still under construction, and they either had their peak investment last year or will have it this year. Despite the fact that not many new developments have come up in the past couple of years and some developments have been completed, higher costs and larger investment scope in the largest ongoing developments indicate a slight increase in development investments this year. Slightly lower planned investment activity within fields in operation this year still seems to result in a marginal decrease in total investments this year.
Upward adjusted estimate for 2027
The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2027 are now estimated at NOK 207 billion. This is 2.9 per cent higher than the estimate given in the previous survey. The increased estimate is largely driven by increased estimates in field development and fields on stream.
The estimate for 2027 is 0.2 percent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2026, given in the second quarter last year.
The marginal increase projected for 2027 is largely driven by higher indicated investment activity within the category of fields on stream. A decline is indicated for the other investment areas. As Figure 3 below shows, it is the estimate for field development that particularly helps to temper the projected increase.
Since most of the ongoing developments will be completed during next year, the count shows a clear decline in development investments in 2027. Some new developments are expected to come in the near future that will increase development investments beyond what is currently included in the count. It is nevertheless unlikely that new developments will be able to prevent a decline in oil and gas investments in 2027.
Higher estimate for 2026
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2026, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at NOK 266 billion. This is NOK 11 billion more than estimated in the previous quarter. The upward revision for 2026 is largely driven by higher estimates within the category of field development.
The investment estimate for 2026 indicates a decrease of 1.1 percent compared with the corresponding estimate for 2025, given in the second quarter last year.
As Figure 4 above shows, it is exploration and concept studies, fields on stream, and pipeline transportation that drive the decline indicated for 2026. The estimates for the categories shutdown and removal, field development, and onshore activities, on the other hand, indicate growth this year and thus help to mitigate the drop in 2026.
Small seasonally adjusted investment decline in the 1st quarter
The final investments in the 1st quarter came to NOK 61.5 billion. This is 11 per cent lower than estimated in the previous quarter, and 14 per cent lower than the investments in the 4th quarter, unadjusted. The seasonally adjusted decrease from the 4th to the 1st quarter, on the other hand, was only 1 per cent. The reason for this is that seasonally, investments tend to be far lower in the 1st quarter than in the 4th quarter.