The estimate for 2025 is in current value the highest that has been recorded since the investment statistics for oil and gas were established. The upward adjustment for 2025 is to a large extent driven by higher estimates within the category fields on stream.
The investment estimate for 2025 now indicates a nominal growth of 9 percent compared to the corresponding estimate for 2024, given a year ago, the statistics oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply show. In the previous survey, a growth of only 4.2 percent was suggested. The background for the indication of a higher growth now is that the estimate for 2024 in the second quarter of last year increased to a lesser extent than the estimate for 2025 is increasing now, as illustrated in figure 2 below.
The estimate for 2026 is now at 207 billion kroner, which is 4.8 percent higher than the initial estimate given in the previous quarter. The estimate for 2026 is also 4.3 percent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2025, given in the second quarter of last year.
Quarterly investment statistics for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport are included in the survey Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. For more details about total investments, please see the following article.
Investments are expected to peak this year
Oil and gas investments saw a significant increase in 2023 and 2024. The main reason for the growth in these years is that the Norwegian Parliament's oil tax package from 2020 incentivized operators on the Norwegian continental shelf to submit a plan for development and operation (PDO) for several new fields. The growth was particularly strong since favorable taxation required that the PDO had to be submitted before the end of 2022, which led to the developments being initiated around the same time. The smallest of these developments have now been completed and are operational, while the largest are still under construction and reached their investment peak either in 2024 or will do so this year. When very few new developments have occurred since 2022, it is therefore not surprising that a moderate decline in investments in field development is indicated this year. However, a very high planned investment activity within fields on stream seems to lead to growth in total investments this year. Since nearly all ongoing developments have passed their investment peak, the count shows a clear decline in field development in 2026. Several new developments are expected to emerge in the near future, which will increase field development beyond what is currently reflected in the count, mostly for 2026, but also a bit for this year. It is still unlikely that the new developments will be able to prevent a decline in oil and gas investments in 2026.
Upward adjusted estimate for 2026
The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2026 are now estimated at NOK 207 billion. This is 4.8 per cent higher than the estimate given in the previous survey. The increase is largely driven by raised estimates within fields on stream. Increased estimates in pipeline transportation and field development also contribute to the increase, while the remaining main categories are roughly unchanged.
The estimate for 2026 is furthermore 4.3 percent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2025, given in the second quarter of last year.
The decline projected for 2026 is largely driven by lower indicated investment activity within the field development category. Additionally, the estimate for exploration and concept studies is lower than the estimate for 2025 for this category, given a year ago. Conversely, the estimates for shutdown and removal are clearly higher than the corresponding estimates for 2025. There is also suggested growth within the categories of onshore activity and fields on stream, which helps to marginally mitigate the indicated decline in 2026.
Higher estimate for 2025
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2025, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at NOK 269 billion. This is NOK 15 billion more than estimated in the previous quarter. The adjustment for 2025 is largely driven by higher estimates in the category of fields on stream. The increase in estimates for this category of as much as 13 percent is artificially high because several fields have come into operation since the last measurement, and these have now been moved from the category of field development to fields on stream. The units included in field development in the current measurement have also collectively increased their estimates compared to the survey in 1st quarter even though the estimate for the category has technically gone down somewhat. Estimates are also adjusted for the categories of pipeline transportation and exploration and concept studies, while estimates for onshore activity and shutdown and removal are approximately unchanged.
The investment forecast for 2025 indicates a growth of 9 percent compared to the corresponding forecast for 2024, given in the 2nd quarter of last year.
As shown in Figure 4 above, it is fields on stream that drive the increase indicated for 2025. The other categories collectively have a negative contribution. Onshore activity, pipeline transportation, and exploration and concept studies contribute slightly to higher investments, while field development as well as shutdown and removal dampen the growth in 2025.
Seasonally adjusted investment growth in the 1st quarter
The final investments in the 1st quarter came to NOK 61 billion. This is 9.8 per cent lower than estimated in the previous quarter, and 11 per cent lower than the investments in the 4th quarter, unadjusted. The seasonally adjusted growth from the 4th to the 1st quarter, on the other hand, was positive at 0.8 per cent. The reason for this is that seasonally, investments tend to be far lower in the 1st quarter than in the 4th quarter. The seasonally adjusted increase from the 4th to the 1st quarter came mainly within fields on stream, while there was lower activity especially within field development in the 1st quarter.