Final investments for 2021 within oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply amounted to NOK 237.2 billion, measured in current value. These is equivalent to a decrease of 3.7 per cent compared with accrued investments for 2020. The decline can be linked to a clear fall in electricity supply investments. The investments in the oil and gas industry had a slight decrease of 0.9 per cent, while investments in manufacturing had a growth of 4.1 per cent.

Figure 1. Final Investments. Mill. current NOK

The companies' latest estimates for total investments in 2022 now suggest a further decline, and compared with the corresponding figure for 2021, a decrease of 4.5 per cent is expected. The negative forecast in 2022 is driven by a sharp decline in oil and gas activities, but also electricity supply contributes in a negative direction. On the other hand, a strong growth in manufacturing investments contributes to dampen the overall investment decline. For more details about investments within the oil and gas industry, please see the following article.

According to Seasonally-adjusted figures: Figures that are adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal variation. Such adjustment gives a more accurate picture of the underlying trend in the time series, and makes it easier to compare the results of subsequent quarters, quarterly final investments had following development from the 3rd to the 4th quarter of 2021:

  • Oil and gas: 0.9 %
  • Manufacturing: 31 %
  • Electricity supply: -11.8 %

Figure 2. Final investments per quarter. Seasonally adjusted. 2005=100

Thursday the 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. This has led to a change in the investment pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (the 1st quarter), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying the 1st quarter as an outlier.

This means that the usual trend will not be calculated and instead will be trend and seasonally adjusted follow each other. An important exception is the last observation, where the trend figure calculated in the seasonal adjustment routine will only be a projected value and the last observation is not included. The trend figure from the 1st quarter of 2020 and later, is therefore difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.