The investment survey conducted in November suggest that total investments within oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply in 2021 will amount to NOK 243,0 billion. This is 3.0 per cent lower than the corresponding figure for 2020, given in November last year. The decline is mainly due to significantly lower investments in electricity supply, while investments in oil and gas activities are likely to end at about the same level as in 2020. For manufacturing, a slight decline is estimated.

Figure 1. Estimated investments collected in 4th quarter same year. Mill. current NOK

Companies’ latest investment estimates for 2022 indicate a decline of 5.7 per cent lower compared to the same figure for 2021 given in November last year. The decrease in 2022 is driven by a sharp fall in investment within the oil and gas industry, and further fall in electricity supply. However, the fall in total investment is dampened by strong growth in manufacturing investment. For more detail about investments within the oil and gas industry, please see the see the following article.

According to Figures that are adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal variation. Such adjustment gives a more accurate picture of the underlying trend in the time series and makes it easier to compare the results of subsequent quarters., quarterly final investment had the following development from the second to the third quarter of 2021:

  • Oil and gas: -0.4 %
  • Manufacturing: -7.7 %
  • Electricity supply: -10.6 %

Figure 2. Final investments per quarter. Seasonally adjusted. 2005=100

Thursday the 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. This has led to a change in the investment pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (the 1st quarter), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying the 1st quarter as an outlier.

This means that the usual trend will not be calculated and instead will be trend and seasonally adjusted follow each other. An important exception is the last observation, where the trend figure calculated in the seasonal adjustment routine will only be a projected value and the last observation is not included. The trend figure from the 1st quarter of 2020 and later, is therefore difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.