The estimate for 2025 is at the same level as the estimate given in the previous quarter, the statistics oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply show. Furthermore, the 2025 estimate is 7.3 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2024, given in the 4th quarter of 2024. The indicated growth is largely driven by higher drilling activity in fields on stream. Several developments have come online, so the investments in these have been moved from the field development category to fields on stream. Therefore, there is technically a decline in field development, but the ongoing developments still appear to receive higher investments this year than they did last year.
Quarterly investment statistics for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport are included in the survey Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. For more details about total investments, please see the following article.
Increased estimates indicate lower decrease in 2026
The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2024 are estimated at NOK 249 billion. This is 8.4 per cent higher than the estimate given in the previous survey. The increase is mainly driven by higher figures for field development and fields on stream, but estimates are also revised upwards for all other main categories, except for exploration, where the estimate remains the same as in the previous measurement. The higher estimate for field development is mainly due to higher costs being reported for some development projects. In connection with the presentation of the state budget, an update of the investment costs for ongoing development projects on the Norwegian continental shelf is carried out every autumn. Since last autumn, the total costs of the ongoing projects have increased by about 60 billion, or 17 percent. Since this concerns the total costs of the projects, it also includes future costs, even after 2026, until the development projects are on stream. Some of the increase has already been reported in earlier counts, and some has been included in this measurement. A number of different reasons for the cost increases are mentioned in the state budget. The most important of these are increased prices for input factors, exchange rate effects, and that some developments require higher investment activity than previously assumed. In addition, new discoveries related to ongoing developments have been incorporated into the development plans, which requires higher investments.
The estimate for 2026, with the upward adjustment in this survey, is 1.6 percent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2025, given in the fourth quarter of last year. The indicated decline for 2026 was 4.5 percent in the previous survey. As Figure 3 below shows, it is particularly field development and exploration that drive the decline projected for 2026, but pipeline transportation also contributes negatively. For fields on stream, shutdown and removal, and onshore activities, investment growth is estimated for next year, and these thus help to mitigate the indicated fall in total investments in 2026.
The decline in field development is related to several development projects being put into operation. At the same time, the ongoing developments taken together have lower planned investment activity for next year than this year. It is expected that there will be some additional developments next year that will increase the estimate for 2026 beyond what is currently included in the count.
Investment growth in 2025
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2023, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at NOK 275 billion. This is like the estimate given in the previous survey. A lower estimate for fields on stream is offset by higher estimates in field development and exploration.
The estimate for investments in pipeline transport and oil and gas extraction for 2025 indicates a nominal growth of 7.3 percent compared to the corresponding estimate for 2024, given in November last year. The estimated growth rate has increased from 6.9 percent in the previous measurement.
As Figure 4 above shows, it is the fields on stream that primarily contribute to the growth indicated for 2025, while field developments contribute most to dampening the growth. This is partly because some field developments were completed earlier this year, and these units have thus changed category from field developments to fields on stream. Investments in exploration are estimated to be 5 percent higher this year than last year. The estimate for pipeline transportation increases by as much as 19 percent from the corresponding estimate last year, but since this category initially has a low level of investment, it contributes less to the overall increase estimated for total investments.
Seasonally adjusted decrease in the 3rd quarter
Actual, unadjusted investments fell by 3.2 percent from the 2nd quarter to the 3rd quarter to 69 NOK billion. Seasonally adjusted growth from the 2nd to the 3rd quarter fell by 2.8 percent. Actual investments in the 3rd quarter ended 6.3 percent lower than the estimate given for the 3rd quarter in the previous survey.
The investments made in the first three quarters of the year amounted to NOK 182 billion. For the current estimate for 2025 to be realized, 73.5 NOK billion must be invested in the 4th quarter, which would represent an unadjusted investment growth of 6.4 percent from the 3rd to the 4th quarter. Historical figures show that it is usually in the 4th quarter that investments are highest. Over the past 5 years, the average investment growth from the 3rd to the 4th quarter has been 8.5 percent, and the corresponding growth in the 4th quarter last year was 8.4 percent.
The annual estimate given in November of the investment year has on average been 2.2 percent higher than the final investments over the past 21 years, and in only two of these years have final investments in the fourth quarter been higher than estimated in the fourth quarter, most recently in 2022. Very often, some of the investment plans for the next quarter tend to be postponed. On the other hand, the current annual estimate for 2025 assumes a lower growth in the fourth quarter than is normal for this quarter.