The estimate for 2026 in the statistics oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply now indicates an increase by 0.6 per cent from 2025 to 2026.
The initial estimate for 2027 is stated to be NOK 201 billion. This is 2 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2026, given a year ago. The stated 2027 estimate is also, in nominal terms, the second highest initial estimate provided in the statistics.
Total accrued investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2025 amounted to NOK 273 billion, which is 8.7 per cent higher than final investments in 2024. The growth in 2025 comes after growth in 2023 and 2024 of 17 and 22 percent, respectively. The strong increase in activity levels over the past three years is closely related to the tax incentive package adopted by the Norwegian Parliament in 2020, which offered favorable taxation for all developments for which a plan for development and operation (PDO) was submitted before the end of 2022. This is the reason why a large number of developments were started at the end of 2022, which has subsequently led to a substantial investment growth in the following years.
Quarterly investment statistics for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport are included in the survey Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. For more details about total investments, please see the following article.
High initial estimate for 2027
The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2027 are estimated at NOK 201 billion. The estimate is 2 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2026, given in 1st quarter 2025.
The increase indicated for 2027 is largely driven by higher estimates within fields on stream, while it is offset by significantly lower estimates within field development. The largest developments that were decided to be developed at the end of 2022 are planned to be completed in 2027 and will have substantially lower investments next year, and these will not be fully replaced by new development projects. A good portion of the new projects included in the count are small and medium-sized discoveries near existing fields, and many of these are therefore reported under the category of fields on stream. Estimates for the categories of shutdown and removal, as well as exploration and concept studies, also indicate growth for 2027. The estimates suggest even stronger growth for pipeline transportation, but since this category initially has a significantly lower investment level, it contributes little to amplifying the increase projected for total investments. In the opposite direction, estimates for onshore activities go down, and this category therefore contributes to moderating the overall indicated increase.
Higher estimate for 2026
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2026, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at NOK 255 billion. This is only 2.7 per cent higher than estimated in the previous quarter. Higher estimates for field development, pipeline transportation and exploration contribute to the upward revision, while the estimate for fields on stream has become somewhat lower compared with the previous measurement.
The latest estimate for 2026 is 0.6 percent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2025, given a year ago. In the previous measurement, a decline from 2025 to 2026 of 1.6 percent was indicated. The reason for this is that the estimate for 2026 in this survey increased more than the estimate for 2025 did a year ago, as illustrated in Figure 2 above.
As Figure 3 above shows, the moderate increase indicated in 2026 is driven by fields on stream and shutdown and removal. In the opposite direction, the category of field development has a negative impact. The many field developments for which PUDs were submitted late in 2022 are now estimated to have lower total investments in 2026 than they did in 2025. The smallest of these have either started production or will start production during 2026. However, it is expected that a few more projects will have PUDs submitted this year, which will increase the field development estimate for 2026 beyond what is included in this count.
Investment growth in 2025
Total investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2025 were NOK 273 billion. This is only 0.7 per cent lower than the estimate given for 2025 in the previous survey in November. Measured in current prices, investments are 8.7 per cent higher than in 2024. As Figure 4 below shows, the increase was clearly dominated by the growth in fields in production.
Investments in field development amounted to NOK 112 billion. This is 1.1 percent lower than in 2024. Investments in fields on stream ended at 109 billion in 2025, a full 23.5 percent higher than the previous year. On one hand, the major ongoing developments had significantly higher investments in 2025 than the year before. Several of these developments have turned out to be considerably more expensive than initially expected. On the other hand, some large development projects were completed early in 2025, meaning that the investments made in these were significantly lower for the field development category in 2025. When the fields began production early in 2025, the investments made on these fields were recorded under fields on stream, which contributed to substantially higher investments in this category in 2025. In addition, more production wells were drilled in 2025, and the cost per well was also higher than in 2024.
Investments in shutdown and removal amounted to NOK 8 billion in 2025. This is 5.1 percent lower than investments in this category in 2024. In pipeline transport, NOK 5 billion was invested, which is 26.4 percent more than in 2024. The development of new pipeline systems related to ongoing field developments dominated investments in pipeline transportation last year.
Higher activity in field evaluation and concept studies in 2025
Investment expenditure on exploration and concept studies ended at NOK 33.7 billion in 2025, which is 5.2 per cent more than the year before. The increase is largely driven by a significant rise in activity in the subcategories of field evaluation and concept studies. These cost items include planning activities for new developments, that is, activities aimed at maturing discoveries for development and operation. Field evaluation includes evaluation and planning activities in the initial phase after a discovery is made, while concept studies encompass the later planning activities related to the development concept itself. Increased activity in these categories, particularly for concept studies, indicates that there are several new developments expected in the next couple of years.
NOK 22.1 billion were spent on exploration drilling in 2025, which is the same amount as in 2024. According to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, 49 exploration wells were started in 2025, 5 more than the previous year. Of last year's wells, 40 were appraisal wells and 9 were delineation wells. 21 new discoveries were made, resulting in newly discovered resources of 424 million barrels of oil equivalent. This makes last year's exploration year the best since 2021.
Marginally lower seasonally adjusted investments in the 4th quarter
The final investments in the 4th quarter of 2024 came to NOK 71.6 billion. This is 2.5 per cent lower than estimated in the previous quarter, but 3.7 per cent higher than the investments in the 3rd quarter, unadjusted. But seasonally adjusted, investments in the fourth quarter ended 0.6 percent lower than in the third quarter. This is because investments are usually seasonally higher in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.