The decline indicated is driven by lower investments, especially in exploration but also in field development and fields on stream. The category shutdown and removal go in the opposite direction, with clearly higher investments this year than last.
The investment estimate for 2027 is now 237 billion kroner in current value, the statistics oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply show. That is 9 billion more than reported in the previous measurement.
Over the years 2023-2025, there has been strong growth in oil and gas investments after a large number of developments kicked off at the end of 2022. However, over the past year, many of the smaller of these developments have been completed and come online. The biggest ones are still in the development phase and are expected to be finished next year. With only a few new developments being started, development investments leveled off in the first half of the year and dropped significantly in the third quarter. Forecasts going forward indicate that the decline in this category will continue. Still, a few new development projects are expected, which will increase the long-term forecast for development beyond what’s currently predicted for 2027. Fields in production and exploration are also down this year, but the investment plans for next year show an increase in these categories, which will help offset the projected decline in total offshore investments next year. The category of shutdowns and removals has clearly higher investments this year than last year, while estimates for next year indicate a clear decline. All in all, this leads to a moderate drop in oil and gas investments this year. Development investments seem to fall more next year, but higher planned investments in exploration and fields on stream suggest that the drop in total investments in 2027 could also be moderate.
Quarterly investment statistics for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport are included in the survey Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. For more details about total investments, please see the article Low overall investment in 2026 and moderate increase for 2027.
Moderate drop in investments indicated for 2027
The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2027 are estimated at NOK 237 billion. This is 4 per cent higher than the estimate given in the previous survey. The increase is mainly driven by higher numbers for field development and exploration, while the estimate for fields on stream is lower than before.
The higher estimate for field development is primarily due to higher reported costs on some development projects. In connection with the presentation of the state budget, there is an annual update of the investment costs for ongoing development projects on the Norwegian continental shelf. Since last autumn, the total costs of ongoing projects have increased by about 35 billion 2026-kroner. A large part of this increase in total costs for ongoing developments will occur in 2027. Some of the increase has already been reported in previous counts, and some has been included in this measurement. A number of different reasons for the cost increases are mentioned in the state budget. The most important of these are costs related to measures to ensure that the planned start-up time for production is realized, currency effects, and the fact that some developments require higher investment activity than previously assumed. In addition, new discoveries related to ongoing developments have been incorporated into the development plans, and this requires higher investments.
The forecast for 2027 is, despite the upward revision in this measurement, 4.8 percent lower than the corresponding forecast for 2026, given in Q4 last year. The indicated drop from 2026 to 2027 was only 0.9 percent in the previous measurement. As Figure 2 above shows, the forecast for 2026 a year ago increased significantly more than the forecast increase for 2027 now, resulting in a steeper indicated decline in investments next year in this measurement.
As figure 3 below shows, it is mainly field development, shutdowns, and removals that drive the decline expected for 2027, while fields on stream help to soften the decline with higher assumed investments for next year.
The decline in field development is related to the fact that more development projects have been put into operation. At the same time, the ongoing developments overall have lower planned investment activity for next year than this year. It is expected that there will be some developments next year that will raise the estimate for 2027 beyond what is currently included in the count.
Moderate investment decline in 2026
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2026, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at NOK 266 billion, which is 3.3 percent lower than the estimate given in the previous survey. Lower estimates in fields on stream and field development contribute the most to the lower reported investments.
The estimate for 2026 indicates a nominal drop of 3.4 percent when compared to the corresponding estimate for 2025, given last November. In the previous survey, the indicated drop was only 0.1 percent.
As Figure 4 above shows, the categories of exploration, fields on stream, field development, and pipeline transport contribute most to the decline indicated for 2026, while shutdown and removal contribute most to cushioning the drop. Investments in exploration are estimated to be 21 percent lower this year than last year. The estimate for pipeline transport falls by as much as 37 percent compared to the corresponding estimate last year, but since this category originally has a low investment level, it contributes less to the overall decline projected for total investments.
Seasonally adjusted decrease in the 3rd quarter
Actual, unadjusted investments fell by 10 percent from the 2nd quarter to the 3rd quarter to 62.3 NOK billion. This is a full 18 percent lower than estimated for the 3rd quarter in the previous measurement. The seasonally adjusted change from the 2nd to the 3rd quarter shows a decrease of 6.5 percent.
The investments made in the first three quarters of this year amount to 193 billion kroner. For the current estimate for 2026 to be realized, 73 NOK billion needs to be invested in Q4, which would mean an unadjusted investment growth of 16 percent from Q3 to Q4. Historical data shows that investments are usually highest in Q4. Over the past 5 years, the average investment growth from Q3 to Q4 has been 7.7 percent, and the growth in Q4 last year was 3.7 percent.
The annual estimate given in November of the investment year has on average been 2.2 percent higher than the actual investments over the past 21 years, and in only two of those years were the final investments for the year higher than the estimate given in Q4, with the last occurrence in 2022. Very often, some of the investment plans for the next quarter tend to be pushed forward in time. The current annual estimate for 2026 also assumes a significantly higher growth in Q4 than what is normal for this quarter. On the other hand, the accrued investments were clearly lower than estimated in Q3, and timing effects could lead to high investments in Q4.