The surplus is not in absolute terms. Although surplus signals that supply exceeds demand, it must be understood as an improvement compared to the baseline year (2021) and seen against the shortage of teachers that year.
The starting point is the population of teacher-educated individuals in the baseline year. During the projection period, the supply grows with the candidate production of new teachers. We do not calculate a trend in the number of new teachers but examine whether the current level (i.e., a constant production level) is sustainable in the long term. The teacher population diminishes in the projection period due to retirement. Retirement varies from year to year and depends on age, gender, and type of teacher education. Overall, the teacher supply increases if the candidate production exceeds the number of retired teachers in each projection year.
The demand for teachers hinges on demographic factors. LÆRERMOD calculates the number of teachers needed in each projection year to maintain the teacher densities in the baseline year in various sectors, given future enrollment in childcare centers, compulsory education, and high schools. We use Statistics Norway's population projections to calculate the number of future children and adolescents. For childcare centers, we use the growth in the number of children aged 1-5; in compulsory education, individuals aged 6-15; for upper secondary education, individuals aged 15-99 are the basis (we include adult learners as well). We consider that not all children attend childcare centers and that not all in the age group 16-99 take upper secondary education. We assume a constant coverage rate for each age group in the projection period. The demand for teachers is stable in the projection period if there is no change in the number of children and adolescents.